UPDATE - EU set to rule on Alstom state bailout in May Tuesday March 30, 10:54 am ET By Aine Gallagher
(Wraps earlier stories on Commission, shares, adds comment) BRUSSELS/PARIS, March 30 (Reuters) - European competition authorities will probably decide by early May if the French bailout of engineer Alstom (Paris:ALSO.PA - News) broke European Union (News - Websites) state-aid rules, an EU official said on Tuesday.
ADVERTISEMENT The European Commission launched a probe into the 4.7 billion-euro bailout, which hauled Alstom back from the brink of bankruptcy, last September.
The review includes a consultant's report that recommends Alstom sell some minor assets to help return it to financial health, the EU official told reporters.
"The consultants do suggest some divestiture, but not the total turbine or train business," the EU official said, adding the asset sales would be within these units. "It's a borderline case; divestiture should be limited to certain aspects."
Shares in Alstom, which makes TGV trains, gas turbines and cruise ships, extended Monday's five percent gain, which followed news that consultants had recommended that the EC approve the rescue plan.
Societe Generale also raised its investment rating on the stock on Monday to "buy" from "sell" on signs the Commission could clear the plan without forcing the company to put key assets on the block.
By 1436 GMT on Tuesday the shares were trading up two percent at two euros.
"At Alstom, they are very confident," said one industry source. "As for asset sales, they know these will be marginal, and in any case they are ready to sell the marine division."
Morgan Stanley analyst Ben Uglow, who also rates the stock a "buy", reckoned an all-clear verdict was credible, since the Commission would not want to be blamed for Alstom's collapse.
However, he and many other experts think the company may still be forced into a more drastic solution long-term, like a major capital increase or even a full merger with German rival Siemens (XETRA:SIEGn.DE - News), in order to carve out a viable future.
"Either they need a partner or they need to be recapitalised," said Uglow. "The ultimate end-game is a merger, probably with Siemens."
BANKRUPTCY?
The European Union official said bankrupting Alstom was not the aim. He said the Commission had received the consultants' report 10 days ago and any divestitures demanded of Alstom would be considered in light of the limited number of competitors in the turbine and train business.
"If (we) put them (Alstom) out of the market, we don't open it up, (but) make it more monopolistic," he said, noting the Commission had never rejected any major restructuring cases.
Separately, Alstom Chairman Patrick Kron said Brussels should approve the bailout package in full, according to French newspapers on Tuesday.
Kron is also reported to have said that Alstom's creditor banks must either renegotiate the terms of its refinancing package or accept that it will default on its loans.
Kron made the comments in South Korea, where he attended the launch of the country's first high-speed French-made TGV train.
Alstom has won a clutch of new contracts in recent months, such as a trio of orders worth almost 400 million euros ($487 million) announced on Monday, suggesting that its customers have renewed their faith in the cash-poor company.
Its stock, which has plunged 80 percent in the past two years due to technical problems, poor management and fears of a cash crisis, has rebounded around 50 percent since the start of the year.
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