Quelle: Standard & Poor
http://www.advisorinsight.com/data/sr/7/71708110.htm(Kursziel 26,50 USD -> siehe Grafik)
PfizerSector: Health Care
Sub-Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Peer Group: Ethical Pharmaceuticals - Major
§PFE has an approximate 1.48% weighting in the S&P 500
Summary:Pfizer, the world's largest drug company, with about 11% of the global market, acquired Pharmacia in April 2003, in exchange for 1.8 billion PFE shares.
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Price as of 11/11/05: $22.43 52-Week Range: $29.21-$20.71
* We expect revenues for 2006 to fall modestly from the $50.4 billion we estimate for 2005. The decline should reflect anticipated generic erosion in 2006 in key lines such as Zithromax antibiotic (estimated sales of $1.9 billion in 2005) and Zoloft antidepressant ($3.4 billion), as well as projected lower sales in Norvasc anti-hypertensive agent and Viagra for erectile dysfunction.
Despite increased competitive pressures, we still see modest sales gains in Lipitor cholesterol-lowering agent, helped by continued growth in overseas markets. We also expect greater contributions from new products such as Macugen for macular degeneration, Lyrica anti-convulsant and Exubera inhaled insulin (subject to regulatory approval). We also see growth in animal health, consumer products and alliance revenues.
* We expect gross margins in 2006 to contract from those expected in 2005, reflecting anticipated lower revenues, as well as a less profitable product mix. However, SG&A costs and R&D spending are likely to be well controlled, in our view, helped by aggressive cost savings and productivity improvements.
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We project 2006 operating EPS of $1.95 (after option expense), versus $1.93 indicated for 2005 (before option expense). After projected stock option expense and pension adjustments, we estimate S&P Core EPS of $1.88 for 2005.
Investment Rationale/Risk November 04, 2005
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Citing lower prescription growth and increased competition in key markets, PFE recently lowered its forecast for 2005 EPS to $1.92-$1.94, from the prior $1.98, and also withdrew guidance for 2006 and 2007. We see significant generic erosion in several lines over the next few years, as well as increased competitive pressures against Lipitor with the anticipated entry of generic copies of rival cholesterol reducers by mid-2006. On the plus side, we still believe PFE has a good pipeline, including Lyrica anti-convulsant; Exubera inhaled insulin; and Lipitor/Torcetrapib, a novel lipid regulator that lowers LDL (bad cholesterol) and raises HDL (good cholesterol). We also think margins should benefit from ongoing cost streamlining measures, which are expected to yield over $4 billion in annualized savings by 2008. We recommend holding the shares, which presently offer a 3.5% dividend yield. * Risks to our recommendation and target price include a possible loss in upcoming Lipitor patent litigation, worse than expected competitive pressures in key lines, and disappointments in the R&D pipeline.
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Our 12-month target price of $26 applies a below peer P/E of 13.3X to our 2006 EPS estimate, which we view as reasonable given PFE's pipeline and litigation risks. Our target price is also close to our calculation of intrinsic value, derived from our DCF model, which assumes decelerating cash flow growth over 10 years and an average cost of capital of 7.2%.