Ich fand Lloyds TSB auch immer interessant und hatte sie früher mal im Depot - schon wegen der hohen Dividende (7 %). Allerdings leidet die Aktie schon länger an verhaltenem Ausblick und neuerdings an verschlechterter Kredit-Qualität (bad debt). In England gibt es - wie in USA - zuviele überschuldete Personen, denen jetzt, bei steigenden Zinsen und Energiepreisen, das Wasser bis zum Hals steht. Analysten von Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein senkten ihre Bewertung von "Hold" auf "Reduce" (unten).
AFX News
02.08.2006 15:52
ROUNDUP
Lloyds TSB H1 profit up 8 pct, bad debt worries linger
LONDON (AFX) - UK bank Lloyds TSB (Nachrichten/Aktienkurs) PLC reported better-than-expected first-half profit, but shares in the group eased on worries over rising bad debts and weak income growth at its retail banking division.
Lloyds, the UK's fifth-biggest bank, said underlying pretax profit for the six months to June 30 came in at 1.75 bln stg, up 8 pct from 1.63 bln stg in the same period last year, and marginally ahead of the consensus analyst forecast of 1.72 bln stg.
The improvement was driven by Lloyds' insurance arm, Scottish Widows, and its wholesale and international banking division, where profits rose 10 pct and 11 pct respectively.
That helped offset sluggish growth at the UK retail bank, where profits were up just 2 pct, held back by a 16 pct jump in bad debt charges to 632 mln stg as more overstretched borrowers struggled to keep up their repayments.
[Die Lage erinnert an USA nach Platzen der Haus-Blase - A.L.]
The retail bank accounted for the bulk of the overall bad debt charge, which was up 20 pct on the year at 800 mln stg.
Lloyds finance chief Helen Weir said retail bad debts should hold steady over the rest of the year as tighter lending criteria begin to to take effect.
'We would not expect to see any further increase in the retail impairment charge as we move into the second half,' she told reporters on a conference call.
However, worries over bad debts persisted, with analysts pointing out that Lloyds warned in its results statement that the number of customers entering individual voluntary agreements 'remains a key factor' in determining the full-year bad debt charge.
'Lloyds says (retail bad debts) should stabilise in H2, but caveats it with comments on IVAs,' analysts at Keefe, Bruyette&Woods wrote in a note.
Chronically-indebted UK consumers are opting for IVAs in ever-greater numbers, compounding the bad debt problem faced by banks as rising energy costs and interest rates pile pressure on overstretched borrowers.
By 2.00 pm, Lloyds shares were 1.6 pct lower at 525-1/2 pence, valuing the group at about 29.6 bln stg.
Analysts at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, who today downgraded their recommendation on the stock to 'reduce' from 'hold,' said Lloyd's retail bank had also been hit by weak income growth because of margin pressure on personal loans and lower revenues from payment protection insurance.
Total revenues at the unit stood at 2.57 bln stg in the first half, an increase of just 3 pct.
'The problem is retail - sluggish income growth has got worse and bad debts are up 90 pct in 18 months,' the Dresdner analysts wrote in a note.
Lloyds left its interim dividend unchanged from last year at 10.7 pence per share, and declined to comment on speculation that it will raise the payout -- already among the highest relative to share price of any FTSE 100 company -- as soon as earnings growth permits.
Simon Willis, banks analyst at stockbrokers NCB, said a higher dividend would help justify the premium Lloyd's shares enjoy over other UK banking stocks, which many sector-watchers currently regard as the result of unfounded takeover speculation.
'They are getting nearer to the point where they could raise their dividend. At the moment their price earnings ratio is too high relative to other banks, but if the market generally believes the dividend is going up, the shares will rerate,' Willis said.
Lloyds shares have been boosted this year by rumours that the group will be taken over, with Spain's Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA and Wells Fargo&Co of the US seen as possible bidders.
According to analysts at Evolution Securities, the stock currently trades at 11.5 times estimated 2006 earnings, against 10.4 times for rival HBOS PLC.
Lloyds said it plans to pay itself a 400 mln stg dividend from Scottish Widows in the second half of this year, capitalising on buoyant conditions in the UK life and pensions market which drove a 35 pct sales increase at the unit during the first six months. Lloyds bought Scottish Widows for 7 bln stg six years ago.
The bank added that it is on track to achieve 100-150 mln stg in efficiency gains next year, building on an austerity drive that kept total cost growth at just 1 pct during the first half, lagging overall revenue growth of 6 pct.
myles.neligan@afxnews.com
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