Aixtron purpose of this thread

Good find CWL1 !!!

Interesting that they mention QD-OLED.

Could be that this is tested in combination with OVPD and with VTE.

 

Very interesting article on the state and recovery of Chip supply chain! Lets hope that things are back to normal by end of march !

https://www.reuters.com/article/dialog-results/...in-q2-idUSL8N2AX166  

Glaubt ihr Canon Tokki erhält überhaupt noch den Auftrag ? Oder warum hört man nichts mehr ? Es war doch von Anfang Januar die Rede. Oder wartet man noch ein paar Monate, um dann sofort mit Aixtron zu starten ...  

was starten? OVPD läuft noch nicht und Samsung will 2021 schon bestimmte Mengen liefern, d.h. wenn sie TVs verkaufen möchten, geht kein Weg zurzeit dran vorbei die Anlagen von Canon Tokki zu benutzen.  

cool!

http://en.thelec.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=760  

Epistar hatte vor einem Jahr erfolgreich alle Meilensteine des internen Qualifikationsprozesses für den Beta-Typ der AIX R6 MOCVD-Produktionsanlage ("AIX R6") erreicht. Aber auch die anderen im Artikel genannten Playntride und Sanan sind AIX-Kunden. Baggo, gibt es begründete Spekulationen, dass VTE und OVPD zusammenwachesen? Was wären die Vor-/Nachteile? Klar, der Vorteil alles aus einer Hand besticht dadurch, dass sich viele technische Probleme so leichter lösen lassen. Andererseits will man ja sicherlich nicht alles auf eine Karte setzen, oder?!
Denke, man wird erst mal kleinere Stückzahlen im Luxussegment fahren. Allerdings sitzen wir dann im richtigen Zug...;-)  

Infineon hat kein Glück mit Übernahmen in den USA (erst Wolfspeed, jetzt Cypress), sollten sich vllt mal etwas Heimisches suchen. Für Aixtron komplett irrelevant, oder?  

Interesting warning from Apple Supplier On Semi today, saying that it expects lower revenue this Q but also states that factories are back to normal levels now.. so a fairly short shock with regards to production in my point of view.

I also saw a comment by Bank of America stating that the next iPhone launch might be delayed due to Corona. Not sure this has an impact on Aix but still flagging it.

Here is the On Semi link:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/...-2020-03-06?mod=newsviewer_click

 

zu deiner Frage bzgl. VTE und OVPD.

nach meiner Meinung ist es Ent oder Weder. Derzeit nutzt Samsung seit dem Galaxy S3 VTE für OLED Handy Displays.

Für die GEN (?) QD-OLED TV Anlage die gerade umgerüstet wird von LCD auf OLED ist es auch VTE.

Für OLED GEN > 8  ist es hoffentlich OVPD. Wenn diese Entscheidung erst mal gefallen ist werden die internen Diskussionen losgehen.

TV = decided by  Samsung Electric
Mobil = decided by Samsung Display

CWL1 please correct me if my recollection is incorrect.

OVPD verbraucht weniger OLED Material von dem 1 Gramm ca.  € 1.000 kostet.
VTE ist aber seit Jahren am Start und man kennt alle Parameter, Lebensdauer, Haltbarkeit....Leuchtkraftverlust, Burn-in rate, etc.   

Gruß
 baggo-mh

 

Infineon hat kein Glück mit Übernahmen in den USA (erst Wolfspeed, jetzt Cypress), sollten sich vllt mal etwas Heimisches suchen. Für Aixtron komplett irrelevant, oder?

DLG aber aber auch kein Glück mit seinen Übernahme-target - oder?

Gruß
 baggo-mh

 

Merci!  

I agree with your analysis, except that I am not certain regarding the LCD to OLED conversion.  Initially the Korean press reported that Samsung planned to convert its L8 LCD line for QD-OLED. Later the Chinese and Korean press both reported that Samsung actually sold the whole L8 line as a turn-key operation and all the technical know-hows to a Chinese LCD producer to get the highest value of the plant.  Instead of conversion, Samsung would order all new equipment for the new QD-OLED line, not converting the old equipment.  Samsung is to still use the infrastructure of the L8 plant for the pilot line QD-OLED production.  I don't know whether changing from conversion to ordering all new equipment means OVPD might have a chance or VTE is still targeted for that Gen 8 line or not.  Purely from the development standpoint, it would make more sense that OVPD goes in now rather than later. The question is, would APEVA + Iruja be ready and could Samsung take the risk of switching to an un-proven key process?  

If you read Felix's CC carefully, he separated OVPD technology development from tool development.  The technology development  part is about fine-turning the process window for best film quality, the heart and soul of OVPD process.  The tool development part is about handling the glass.  Canon Tokki is best known for its automation and glass handling, not the VTE process by itself.  As I posted before, Samsung actually developed and used its own VTE source, not Canon's.  The VTE maturity part of the comment made by Felix PROBABLY was mostly addressing the tool maturity, i,e. the glass handling.  If a big Gen 8+ glass cracked into multiple pieces in the vacuum chamber or during its transportation from stage A to B, to clean that up would be a nightmare.  

Just some random thoughts and hypothesis.  Does not mean much in terms of what comes next.  Order and revenue of OVPD have been built into the 2020 guidance anyway.  

https://www.oled-a.org/...rive-as-lcd-capex-falls-to-zero_121519.html

"As Samsung Display converts a Gen 8.5 LCD line to a new quantum dot/OLED configuration.  While some of the LCD equipment can be used in the QD/OLED process, SDC faces the question of starting from scratch with all new tools, or trying to incorporate some of the existing equipment.  The production line involved is the L8-1 P1 line that began production in late 2007, and while we doubt much of the original equipment is still in use, SDC has the opportunity to upgrade some of the more typical equipment that would be common to the new process.  That said, bean counter at SDC are not going to allow engineers to just toss the old tools, despite the fact that they are likely fully depreciated, so SDC has been in talks with other panel producers who might want to buy the existing tools.

From the standpoint of a buyer, the most logical scenario would be to buy the entire line and therefore not have to purchase one-off tools, and while SDC contemplated keeping some, it seems they have agreed to sell the entire line en masse, which likely attracted more potential buyers and gives SDC the opportunity to purchase the most updated versions of tools for the QD/OLED line.  The L8-1 P1 line has a raw capacity of 80,000 sheets/month, which is substantial enough to be a standalone fab or as an addition to a large LCD complex."

 

Puh, jetzt kommt hier aber wirklich auch alles zusammen... Corona, dann Öl, obwohl letzteres eher ein politisches Thema ist. Aber jetzt gibt es alles im Ausverkauf. Mal sehen wo und wann wir in den nächsten Wochen den Boden finden.

Grüße und ein cooles Köpfchen,
Fel  

Da hat Aixtron wohl in weiser Voraussicht Spielraum beim Wechselkurs EUR / USD in der Jahresprognose gelassen. Seit den Q Zahlen im Februar hat der Euro viel Boden gegenüber dem USD gut gemacht ...  

kannst du dich noch erinnern, als auf der münchener sicherheitskonferenz der us aussenminister in absoluter selbstsicherheit sagte " wir werden gewinnen " ??
den rest von verschwörungstheorien lasse ich mal. man kann trumps ziel mit einfügen und den fakt das die amis über leichen gehen.
 

Die Shortseller von AHL Partners LLP haben ihre Leerverkauf-Aktivitäten in den Aktien des Aachener Herstellers von LED-Produktionsanlagen AIXTRON SE (ISIN: DE000A0WMPJ6, WKN: A0WMPJ, Ticker-Symbol: AIXA, Nasdaq OTC-Symbol: AIXXF) spürbar abgebaut.
Die Finanzprofis der zur Man Group plc gehörenden AHL Partners LLP mit Sitz in London haben am 06.03.2020 ihre Shortposition in den AIXTRON SE-Aktien von 0,66% auf 0,58% gesenkt.
Aktuell halten die Leerverkäufer der Hedgefonds folgende Netto-Leerverkaufspositionen in den AIXTRON SE-Aktien:
5,86% CPMG, Inc. (11.02.2019)
1,76% Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (18.12.2019)
1,55% Pennant Windward Master Fund LP (29.10.2012)
0,60% Algert Global LLC (02.08.2016)
0,59% HBK Investments L.P. (02.03.2020)
0,59% PDT Partners, LLC (04.12.2019)
0,58% AHL Partners LLP (06.03.2020)
0,58% Columbus Circle Investors (02.05.2014)
0,57% Barrington Wilshire LLC (12.08.2013)
Damit summieren sich die Netto-Leerverkaufspositionen der Leerverkäufer der Hedgefonds derzeit auf mindestens 12,08% der AIXTRON-Aktien. Quoten unter 0,50% werden in unserer Berichterstattung als nicht meldepflichtig nicht berücksichtigt.  

Mit dem Virus lässt sich gut Geld verdienen! Kein Squeezeout, sondern in der Krise langsam und mit Riesengewinn reduzieren. Jetzt verstehe ich deren Geschäft immer besser...;-)  

Hi all (in english to make it easier for CWL who can most likely add more to this topic),

after some busy days I have been reading up on the Q4 conf call transcript and read some research on ST Micro as well (see below) and wanted to share my updated end-market analysis which is key to Aixtron's mid-term growth potential. Please add/comment on the below!

1. VCSEL: Capacity utilisation at customers has improved vs. 2018/19 levels and initial discussions about potential future orders. I expect orders to return in H2-20, depending on the negative Corona etc. impacts on the supply chain. So this end-market is improving somewhat vs. 2019.
2. SIC: This market remains in ramp-up phase with more customer wins for Aixtron and first orders. We are not at volume ramp up yet though, so estimate around 10-20m in revenue/quarter potentially ramping further in 2021/22 as EV programs kick-off (example at VW). So so far a small market, in its early but gradual growth phase. Main driver are EV's.
3. GAN: The biggest surprise to me from the call. This is clearly moving into a focussed R&D stage at customers. ST Micro has done an acquisition here and they seem to be innovation leaders (as in SIC) and will add production capacity over 2020/21. This end market is in earlier stages then SIC (probably 2-3 years earlier) and clearly moving into a small production stage, before really moving into volume production probably in 2022/23. In the call Aixtron says that "there is much much more to come" and see "double digit fraction of our number in 2021/22" which I assume means a double digit % of our revenue number. I would be a bit cautious and expect this only to occur for GAN in 2022/23. Main driver here is 5G adoption in Smartphones.
4. Mini/Micro LED: This market is also moving in the right direction, with some shipments already happened in Q4. We are clearly at the point where application for Mini/Micro LEDs for TVs should be moving from low volume, very high end applications (e.g. Samsung  The Wall) to higher volume, high price TV applications (although this will still take some years I assume) and Wearables (i am waiting for the next Apple Watch application). In the call Aixtron said "applications for both and we see orders this year and revenue this year both increasing over the past, simply because the move from R&D to feasibility of high volume production". My take is that we are in feasibility for high volume production with the next step being high vol production. Timeline probably 2020-22.
5. OVPD/APEVA: This is very clearly on track. Order expected in 2020, some revenue will be booked in 2020 according to Percentage of Completion Accounting. In the call they say "first of all let me mention that we are confident to get the thing up and running no to give the wrong connotations". As in past calls they also continue to mention the "high customer interest". To me, this project has a 95% likelihood, the question is when the follow-up order worth about 120m € comes in, most likely in H2-2021/H1-2022.

Also note that the Aftermarket business has grown steadily over the last years. There the guidance for 2020 looks quite conservative to me (again).

So summing it all up, the outlook for end-markets really remains solid with VCSEL, SIC and Mini/Micro LED the biggest near-term options plus the OVPD project.

Nevertheless I expect Q1 to be a weaker revenue quarter, given the weaker order intake in Q3-19. If that happens, it will present another nice buying opportunity in my view, so i am still treading cautiously on the stock until Q1 is out of the way. But the structural outlook,  as highlighted above is STRONG (e.g. predictable revenue growth in a highly volatile and uncertain world).

Here is the ST Micro newsflow (I personally think about buying some shares there as well but have not decided yet):
STMicroelectronics to Acquire Majority Stake in Gallium Nitride innovator Exagan
“ST has built strong momentum in silicon carbide and is now expanding in another very promising compound material, gallium nitride, to drive adoption of the power products based on GaN by customers across the automotive, industrial and consumer markets” said Jean-Marc Chery, President and CEO of STMicroelectronics. “The acquisition of a majority stake in Exagan is another step forward in strengthening our global technology leadership in power semiconductors and our long-term GaN roadmap, ecosystem and business. It comes in addition to ongoing developments with CEA-Leti in Tours, France, and the recently-announced collaboration with TSMC.”
https://investors.st.com/news-releases/...r_news_date_value%5Bmin%5D=

Here is a broker statement on that acquisition:
Where is STM on GaN now? Trying to replicate SiC success. STM has a production
line for RF GaN in its Catania (Italy) fab with 150mm wafer volume ramp likely by 2020
end followed by expanding into 200mm wafers starting from 2021. It also has a pilot line
for GaN Power in its Tours (France) fab with volume production likely from 2021. STM is
trying to replicate the success it had with SiC (sales to grow from virtually nothing in 2017
to $300mn+ in 2020E) to now GaN as well by forging partnerships and adding
manufacturing presence in what remains a nascent market. Out of $1.5bn of capex budget
for 2020, STM has set aside $0.4bn for strategic initiatives like SiC, GaN and Imaging.

Regards,
Fel


 

Thank you for nice summary.  The article below highlights your item 4 on mini/micro LED.

Notably, Playnitrid is to hike monthly production from 1000 to 10,000 six inch wafers per  month, a 10X ramp.  If one G5 produces 500 six inch wafers a month (two runs a day, 8x2x30=480), then about 20 MOCVD's would be required.  My guess is that Playntirde had a few MOCVD's during the initial phase in 2019.  If the news is true, then PlayNitrIde has to be buying many more from Aixtron as we speak.

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20200309PD204.html

Samsung may launch micro LED TVs in 2H20
Siu Han, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES Monday 9 March 2020
Samsung Electronics plans to partner with Taiwan-based LED epitaxial wafer and chip maker Epistar for supply of micro LED chips, signaling that it is likely to launch micro LED TVs in the second half of 2020, industry sources cited South Korea-based media reports as indicating.

Epistar is a shareholder of Taiwan-based PlayNitride, currently the exclusive micro LED chip supplier for Samsung. Epistar is expected to work with PalyNitride to supply micro LED chips for Samsung rather than do it alone, the sources said.

Starting trial production in third-quarter 2019, PlayNitride began producing over 1,000 6-inch micro LED wafers monthly in fourth-quarter 2019, and will hike monthly output to 10,000 wafers in 2020, the sources noted.

China-based Sanan Optoelectronics in 2018 supplied quasi micro LED chips for Samsung to produce the Wall, the modularized 146-inch display. Sanan has reportedly developed 30- x 30-micron micro LED chips, and is expected to become the second supplier for Samsung, the sources indicated.

Sanan's subsidiary Xiamen Sanan Integrated Circuit and China-based flat panel maker China Star Optoelectronics Technology (CSOT) will set up a joint-venture lab for developing micro LED materials, manufacturing process and equipment with initial investment of CNY300 million (US$42.9 million), respectively to hold 45% and 55% stakes.  

This chart summarizes Aixtron's three segments based on Aixtron's presentation.  Equipment only.  
A few key takeaways:

1. The Power has more than doubled from the previous Q's.  SiC and GaN are coming.
2. LED is still a steady business. It grew steadily from 2018. It grew every Q from last year's Q.
3. Opto dropped about 40% from 2018.  Thanks to Power and LED to keep the total sales flat.

All three segments should see sizable growth from 2019.  Aixtron's 2020 guidance of 280m is conservative because of the virus.  The equipment sales (80%) including OVPD would be 224m, compared to 208m in 2019.  If OVPD generates 10-20m, that implies the MOCVD sales would be lower to flat in 2020 vs 2019.  That is unlikely IMO.  China's daily coronavirus cases have drooped to 10-20 a day.  That means the threat is pretty much over there, and the speed of ramping up their MOCVD would only accelerate.  China recovering ahead of everyone else by a few months is actually its golden opportunity to move ahead.  
 

CPMG bewegt sich und hat zum ersten mal angefangen, seinen Short zu covern...von 5,86% auf 5,75% - mon dieu! :-)  

Super gesichtet und gemeldet DLG! Allerdings sehr spannend... ich hoffe nur, dass sie den Großteil der Position erst in H2 abbauen, wenn die Aktie eh wieder steigt.. wir brauchen vorher nochmal ne größere Einstiegsgelegenheit und dann einen squeeze :-)

Bitte halt da weiter ein Auge drauf !

Wo ist Joss Beau unser Bananen Mann ?? Zuviel Aixport konsumiert, oder fastet er Arriva Forum ?  

China meldet pandemie spitze überschritten.  rückgang der invizierten.  hoffe die show ist in 6 wochen vorbei.
bitte keine guten news von aixtron jetzt, die sollen sich nach dem chaos erstmal schön eindecken.  

auf chinesische Aussagen verläßt, dann bist du verlassen.  Alle wollen ( verständlicher Weise )
das Volk beruhigen und  Optimismus verbreiten. Aber das ist noch lange nicht durch.