Warren Buffett "writes that the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged from 66 to 11,497 during the 20th century. That is a huge rise - yet it averages out to just 5.3% compounded annually, Buffett writes. What's more, were the DJIA to repeat that 5.3% average annual gain throughout the 21st century, its value on Dec. 31, 2099, would approach 2 million." [http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/29/news/companies/...version=2008030112]
Und ich bin short im Dow mit Strike 12000 :) Naja, muss ich halt vor 2099 wieder raus, bevor wir scharf auf die 2 Millionen zugehen.
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett had a good year in 2007, thanks to Berkshire Hathaway's stable insurance operations in a disaster-free 12 months, but he's not expecting a repeat.
That party is over,? he wrote in his eagerly awaited annual letter to shareholders. ?It is a certainty that insurance-industry profit margins, including ours, will fall significantly in 2008. Prices are down, and exposures inexorably rise.? He predicted that even with another disaster-free year, the industry's profitability will decline. ?If the winds roar or the earth trembles, results could be far worse.? On Friday Buffett stated in his annual report to shareholders that Berkshire posted an 11.0%, or $12.3 billion, gain in net worth. Over the last 43 years per-share book value has soared at a rate of 21.1%, compounded annually??
??..Although Buffett said Berkshire has been profitable over its entire history, its past cannot be used to predict future earnings. He expects it will average breakeven results or better in the future. ?Berkshire?s past record can?t be duplicated or even approached,? Buffett said. ?Our base of assets and earnings is now far too large for us to make outsized gains in the future.?