Wie geht es weiter? Das weiß niemand, aber ein ordentliches Handelssystem sollte Assetunabhängig funktionieren und neben kleinen Verlusten auch grosse Gewinne abwerfen. Wie? Ganz einfach, Verluste Begrenzen, Gewinne laufen lassen.
Novogratz von Galaxy Digital wird als Kryptoexperte die Risiken m.E. gut einschätzen können.
Novogratz Warns ?Picking Bottoms Is Dangerous? as Slide Resumes
Auszug "Mike Novogratz, the founder of Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd. who this week issued a mea culpa over Terraform Labs?s imploded stablecoin, noted that some smaller tokens are down 80% from their highs. And should their losses accelerate to the same degree they did in 2018, those coins could lose an additional 70%.
?My point is picking bottoms is dangerous,? he tweeted. ?And if you do scale in slowly.?
Cryptocurrencies have suffered this year, undergoing a dark stretch that?s affected just about every corner of the market. Bitcoin and Ether are down 50% each since November, when many coins peaked, while XRP, Dogecoin and Solana have all lost roughly 70%. Shiba Inu is down 80%. And investors are also souring on NFTs and other crypto-centric offshoots.
Bitcoin, the largest digital-asset by market value, dropped as much as 5% to $28,706 on Friday. The S&P 500 dipped 20% below its January peak on an intra-day basis.
It?s all happening as the Federal Reserve, in its attempt to bring inflation back to 2%, raises interest rates and tightens the loose monetary conditions it had put in place to deal with the pandemic. Stocks and bonds have also sold off this year as investors try to figure out whether the central bank?s actions will induce the economy into a recession.
?The move so far has been correlated to the broader macro market moves,? Mathew McDermott, global head of digital assets at Goldman Sachs, said of the crypto markets.
That hasn?t kept some from saying that now is a good time to buy digital assets at a discount -- Twitter is rife with such posts. Nor have predictions ceased, after more than $1 trillion has been erased in crypto-markets value since the fall, that the bottom is in.
The plunge in prices on May 12, amid TerraUSD?s breakdown, ?signaled clear tendencies of extreme and irrational fears,? according to a research note by BlockFi and Arcane Research. Funding rates reached lows not seen since July as liquidations spiked, all while spot volumes remained elevated. ?All these events suggest that the current selloff could be nearing a point of saturation,? the report said, though it added that assessing the crypto market without consideration for what?s going on with broader risk assets is ?likely unwise.?
Recession or not, crypto prices could have further to fall, according to Mike Belshe, founder and CEO of BitGo. ?Even if the economy avoids a downturn, I?m confident that prices will collapse and the exuberance will subside,? he said in an interview. ?This would be more pronounced if we enter into a recession.?
?We haven?t had them go through a real recession and the question I ask myself is, if you take Bitcoin now, what is the greater probability? That it will double in value or that Bitcoin will halve in value?,? Jonathan Macey, professor at Yale Law School who studies corporate finance, said by phone. ?And I think the odds are that it?s going to halve in value.?
It?s difficult to say what event or news could help Bitcoin and other risky assets start to form a floor. Many are scouring charts and sentiment readings, though some have turned to history. The coin offers many case studies. Bitcoin?s peak-to-trough decline in 2018, for instance, exceeded 80%. That year, the coin posted multiple double-digit rallies and declines.
?I wouldn?t look for a sustainable rally there until the Fed?s getting ready to lower rates again,? David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth Management, said by phone. ?And that?s quite a ways away.?
Meanwhile, BitGo?s Belshe says a recession could help ?filter out weaker projects.?
: Sehr interessanter Artikel zum Kursverlauf
Und den enormen Umweltschaden durch Bitcoin
Tipping points and death spirals
Bitcoin’s value has temporarily dropped below the estimated cost of production several times before without significant long-term damage to the hash rate. But should the market stagnate for long enough, proof-of-work cryptocurrencies will start to see an increasing number of miners capitulate.
Miners with the highest costs are likely to sell off their bitcoin holdings as profitability drops, creating even more selling pressure in the market. Short-term capitulation among smaller mining outfits with high costs (often using intermittent renewable energy) is normal.
But a domino effect with major mining firms closing down one after another could cause crypto prices, and the network’s carbon emissions, to drop rapidly towards zero. This event is called a bitcoin death spiral in crypto-speak.
Besides bitcoin mining price predicaments, there are other potential tipping points to consider. Many big investors, especially those who bought in at higher prices, are currently underwater – weighed down with big bags of bitcoin.
Studie legt Muster offen. Twitter-Bots sollen Tesla über ein Jahrzehnt lang gepusht haben
Laut US-Forschern verbreitet eine Armee automatisierter Twitter-Accounts über Jahre das Narrativ des Elektroautobauers Tesla. Auch der Börsenkurs könnte so gestärkt worden sein. Dem manager magazin liegt das Forschungs-Paper vorab vor.
Angehängte Grafik: silber_bitcoin_20220524.jpg (verkleinert auf 46%)
: Cryptopusher everywhere on Davos Mainstreets
Executives from the crypto sector have descended on the annual gathering of business leaders and politicians in the Swiss Alpine resort, seeking to encourage faster adoption of their technology, which is largely unregulated. The crypto crowd’s prominence at Davos, while largely on the sidelines of the main event, comes as cryptocurrencies shed $800 billion in market value earlier this month.
Small traders have flocked to crypto in the hope of quick returns, despite warnings from regulators that the emerging assets can be high risk. Luna, until recently the eighth-biggest digital coin and backed by institutional crypto investors, has shed nearly all of its value.
The WEF, which typically caters to the financial elite including major banks such as Citigroup to Credit Suisse , is holding panels on cryptocurrencies’ carbon footprint and future and one on decentralised finance.
“It’s been rising outside and inside the gates,” said Stan Stalnacker, chief strategy officer at social network Hub Culture, which also operates a digital currency, referring to crypto’s presence in the conference and on its sidelines.
Da wird zum Kauf getrommelt ohne Ende. Es wurde Gebetet und Kerzen angezündet. Bittebitte lass den Hype nicht zu Ende sein, ich bin doch fett im Minus 😎
Net Cash $113.6 MILLION(4) BTC Held on Balance Sheet 6,320 BTC(5) Current Riot Hashing Capacity 4.7 EH/S(6) Future Riot Hashing Capacity 12.8 EH/S(7) QUARTER ENDED MAR 31, 2022 Total Bitcoin Mined 1,405 Total Revenue $79.8 MILLION Bitcoin Mining Revenue $57.9 MILLION Bitcoin Mining Direct Margin 67.0% Avg. Direct Cost / Bitcoin Mined $13,590
"Bearish Options Traders Target a Bitcoin ETF to Capitalize on the Fall in Crypto"
Auszug "The increased interest in bearish BITO options indicates that cryptocurrency bears are turning to the ETF as an easy and liquid avenue to short sell the cryptocurrency in a market without a dedicated inverse or short bitcoin ETF to capitalize on the fallout across the crypto market.
Fund sponsors, including Direxion, ProShares, and AXS, have issued exemptive relief filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for ETFs that would provide short exposure to Bitcoin futures contracts, but none of the applications have passed regulatory scrutiny yet. Consequently, bearish traders have turned to betting against BITO, the first and largest US-listed Bitcoin derivatives ETF by assets, as a proxy bearish play.