| DAILY UPDATE (January 23rd to 27th, See UPDATED Systemic Risks, FOMC) – Next Postings: Data Release* - Jan 27th, Commentary** - Jan 26th // RECESSION SIGNALS EXPLODE: / Fourth-Quarter 2019 Cass Freight Index Showed Its Worst Collapse in Annual Freight Activity Since the Great Recession / Fourth-Quarter Production and Manufacturing Contracted Both Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year (Both Before and After GM Strike Consideration); Annual Growth in Positive Mining Activity Still Is Collapsing / Fourth-Quarter Real Retail Sales Contracted for the First Time Since the 2014-2016 Mini-Recession; a Second Consecutive Negative Holiday Shopping Season / Signaling Serious Economic Weakness, Fourth-Quarter 2019 Real Average Weekly Earnings Contracted at an Annualized Quarterly Pace of 0.5% (-0.5%), on Top of Rapidly Slowing Jobs Growth / Year-to-Year December CPI Inflation of 2.29% Was the Strongest Since October 2018 / December Annual Payroll Growth Hit a Two-Year Low, Amidst Faltering Production and Retail Sales, and in Advance of Negative Benchmark Revisions (see Flash Update No. 18) // ON THE PLUS SIDE: December 2019 Home Sales Gained in the Month and Year-to-Year, With 2019 Sales Unchanged versus 2018 / Nonsensically Volatile Boom in December Housing Starts Was Not Meaningful, Although the Series Is Trending Higher // In Aggregate, This Cannot Be the FOMC’s Happy Vision of “Sustainable Moderate Economic Growth” |
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