: repost from dlg. _Thanks! 08.01.20 08_57
Baggo, a BIG thank you for opening this forum, much appreciated! Any preference with regard to English/German?
As a starter: Barclays recently downgraded AMS given the upcoming Osram deal. However, Barclays was quite optimistic regarding Android 3D sensing adoption, calling it ?first year of mass adoption of ToF? and ?the 2020 VCSEL market will represent a significant opportunity for suppliers?. They forecast some 180m VCSEL units for 2020 (unfortunately, no comparable numbers for 2019 were provided).
They also expect that some 40% of the iPhone 12 ToF (in two models) will go to Finisar which I understand is an Aixtron client.
fel216: Interesting article on Micro LED with a good summa 08.01.20 11:58#4 Interesting article to read, a good summary. Supports the view that Micro LED will be the next big trend (Aixtron very very well positioned to benefit) but still a couple of years away before it reaches mainstream TV sizes..
Also supports my view that to bridge the gap Samsung will needs a breakthrough in QD-LED technology, via APEVA.
Obviously difficult to say whether this consensus includes or excludes a potential OLED order (e.g. Berenberg?s EUR 269m sales estimate for 2020 excludes a potential OVPD order), maybe a mix.
4Q19 average EUR/USD rate was slightly below 1.11 (FY2019: 1.12) compared to Aixtron?s budget rate of 1.20 which formed the basis for their latest guidance, i.e. some EBIT margin support here (however, shouldn?t be a surprise to the market). Will be interesting to see what rate Aixtron will use for their 2020 guidance. Assuming they will use, say, 1.15 for 2020, does that mean that there will be a headwind for Aixtron?s 2020 EBIT margin guidance given the actual 1.12 EUR/USD rate in 2019?
CWL1: EV/EBDTA 08.01.20 17:22#11 ratio is what I pay more attention to because EV includes the huge cash position Aixtron has. I understand that currency is a factor but I typically look pass it. It is something the company has no control of unless it does currency hedging which by itself is a risk.
dlg.: ... 08.01.20 18:44#12 CWL, thanks a lot for this link - haven?t spotted that before and looks great (and I can save time)!
Agree that P/E is probably not the best measure for a fair valuation of Aixtron, but EV/EBITDA has its limitations with Aixtron as well in my view. At least for the time being, given the (25 million?) annual OVPD project impact which makes a comparison with competitors quite challenging.
With respect to FX: was just trying to say that if Aixtron is too conservative in terms of EUR/USD budget rate for 2020 (e.g. 1.15 or even 1.20), this might backfire in February with the 2020 guidance which might show a limited/decreasing EBIT development in 2020.
Btw, congrats to your timing on your last Aixtron investment at approx. 8 Euro!
baggo-mh: reason for todays jump in share price 08.01.20 18:55#13 from a german magazin called "Der Aktionär" which is pushing Aixtron today:
"Setzt sich am Markt die Meinung durch, dass es dem Vorstand gelingen wird, bei anziehender Nachfrage auch die Margen zu verbessern, dürfte die Aktie den nächsten Versuch starten, den horizontalen Widerstandsbereich um 10,50 Euro zu attackieren. Auf dem Weg dorthin wartet zunächst ein horizontaler Widerstandsbereich um 9,00 Euro. Gelingt der nachhaltige Sprung über diese Hürde, dürfte die Aktie Fahrt aufnehmen. DER AKTIONÄR spekuliert im Real-Depot mit einer Trading-Position auf dieses Szenario".
Last time the share price passed the ? 9,00 hurdle they pushed the stock in their universe (magazin, Internet TV, daily news to subscribers) too.
rosskata: "spam-free" thread is a nice thing 08.01.20 23:45#14 However, we should not forget that the truth is born in arguments. So, please keep an eye open for different opinions with good arguments. Surely, I don't mean someone like Goldi, Welti and the likes.
rosskata: Der Aktionär: Baggo, glaubst du echt der Aktikonär 08.01.20 23:51#15 hat so viel Einfluss? Es ist mir nie augefallen. Ich halte von der Magazin rein gar nichts und glaube nicht, dass Investoren , die die Aktie bewegen können, auch unter den Lesern sind.
Ich glaube eher der CWL's Theorie mit dem buy-back in USA + vielleicht CES2020 Thrends.... + (wer weiss) vielleicht auch LV-Deckungen ?! Nach so viel LV-Strahlung im Thread da drüben fange ich langsam daran zu glauben
rosskata: Currency politics 08.01.20 23:53#16 I cannot remember that Aixtron has ever calculated any differently than with 1.20 USD for EUR but I may be wrong. Plus, at least in the past, Aixtron used to hedge ;)
baggo-mh: Aixtron exchange rate 09.01.20 00:17#19 they have used rates even as high as 1,40 in the past. Correct they hedged in the past.
The purpose of the closed Forum is not to keep an onesided optimistic view on the stock only. Rather to eliminate posts: - on politcs, - the efficiency of the IR - personal attacks - and the strategy of the hedge fonds
Bei letzten Kursanstieg auf über ? 9 vor ein paar Wochen, war der Aktionär auch gerade eingestiegen. Die Zugriffszahl auf das Forum steigen auch von ca. 2 auf > 3.000 an.
"To build expectations, one does not need to think twice about the adoption of EVs, 5G, LEDs, and other applications. With the dominant position the company has in Silicon Carbide, the future does look bright."
II-VI Inc. is tne No. 2 in SiC.
The future looks bright and the best is yet to come. baggo-mh
fel216: Broker upgrade driving stock as well 09.01.20 09:32#22 Next to Aktionär there is a broker Upgrade by local German broker Lampe Bank, they raise their target to 12.50?, I personally think this has a stronger impact than Aktionär, but in the end if does not matter. Remember, that the stock is fairly illiquid and has historically been volatile. Given that the upgrade is not yet featured in the news, here it is from Bloomberg.
Von David Verbeek und Bloomberg Automation (Bloomberg) -- Veysel Taze von Bankhaus Lampe hat die Anlageempfehlung für Aixtron SE erhöht auf Kaufen von zuvor Halten. * Kursziel auf 12,50 Euro festgelegt; entspricht 37% Aufwärtspotenzial gegenüber dem letzten Schlusskurs. Aixtron hat ein durchschnittliches Kursziel von 10,53 Euro
dlg.: ... 14:51#23 Some thoughts on the Lampe report: main theme was that i) there are two main growth drivers with SiC and MicroLED (everyone already knew) ii) there will be a make or break decision on OLED by mid next year and either way, this will be positive for Aixtron (fel already explained this in October last year)
Thus, for me it was quite interesting to see that this note - Lampe probably not seen as THE Tier 1 sell side research house - had such a price & volume impact y?day by stating the obvious, i.e. the known growth drivers for Aixtron.
Two other interesting aspects: I like their approach of using P/E but with an OLED-cost-adjusted EpS (CWL, agree that an EV approach might be even better). I was a bit surprised to see that - even if Aixtron gets the Samsung OLED order - the analyst expects the OLED business only to be break-even in 2022. For me, this is either very conservative or a slight negative as any potential OLED EBIT contribution will only be visible in 2023. Or do I miss anything here?
rosskata: Lampe Hochstufung 15:51#24 Ich bin ziemlich sicher, dass nicht dies der Grund für den Anstieg. Nur Zufall. Wenn aber Godman Sachs Aixtron in deren Strong buy Halbleiterliste aufgenommen hätten z. B, dann könnte ich das als Begründung eher akzeptieren.