http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...109&sid=aj7ZOXNzbgAw&refer=exclusiveschon ungewöhnlich so ein Artikel bei Bloomberg ,der nicht nur die Verkaufsempfehlung von Weier zitiert
The Heidelberg, Germany-based company is struggling with falling orders from cash-strapped producers of brochures and labels affected by the global credit squeeze. It may not get a boost from the industry's main showcase, which starts today in Dusseldorf.
Heidelberger typically adds three to four months of order backlog at the quadrennial Drupa trade fair and aims for that again this year. That could mean 900 million euros ($1.4 billion) of orders, Chief Executive Officer Bernhard Schreier said today in an interview. The show, with 400,000 visitors and more than 1,800 exhibitors, may not generate the usual tally, said Thomas Wybierek, an analyst at Norddeutsche Landesbank in Hannover.
``It's not about how much they buy, it's whether they buy anything at all,'' said Wybierek, who rates the shares ``hold.'' In a Bloomberg survey of 26 analysts, 12 say ``sell,'' nine advise holding and five say to buy. The stock may fall to 12 euros in 12 months, said Weier, of UBS in Frankfurt.
Heidelberger Druck ``may need to rethink its whole business model and strategy,'' UBS's Weier wrote in a May 7 note to clients. ``The structural decline is here to stay.''
The credit crunch is forcing publishers to curb investment in new machines, costing up to 5 million euros. Small print shops are finding it especially hard to finance purchases. Orders in the fourth quarter ended March 31 fell 12 percent to 825 million euros, below analysts' median forecast of 852 million euros.
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``We've had a slump in the U.S.,'' Schreier said today at a press conference at Drupa. ``Customers haven't been buying. It's not that they bought something else. They didn't buy at all.''
....``There are a lot of headwinds,'' said Matthias Born, a member of the European mid-/small-cap equity team at Allianz Global Investors AG in Frankfurt, which manages 2.5 billion euros and whose parent's life-insurance fund owns 13 percent of the company. ``As long as the currency stays where it is and the raw- material costs stay high and the market tends toward weakness, I don't see much potential except for short-term fluctuations.''....
..The gloomy forecasts have not deterred Juergen Meyer, who manages investments worth 1.4 billion euros as head of German and Euro zone equities at SEB Asset Management in Frankfurt.
``Heidelberger Druck shares are ridiculously cheap today,'' said Meyer. SEB added 400,000 shares as of the end of January, boosting its stake to 3.3 percent and becoming the company's third-largest investor.
``What we're seeing today aren't peak earnings,'' he said. ``Now imagine if things would be positive. The cycle will turn when there's an upswing in American investment spending. The cycle for European manufacturers will turn as soon as the Euro devalues against the yen because they'll regain the cost advantage.'' .....