...diese Kursprognose. Derzeit scheint eher das Gegenteil der Fall zu sein. Das Bidvolumen im Xetra erhöht sich stetig und wir sind erstmals seit Monaten wieder über der 38-Tage-Linie. Auch charttechnisch scheint alles auf eine Trendwende hinzudeuten.
Fundamental stehen die Zeichen ja ohnehin auf Grün. Folgender Artikel ist etwas länger, aber sehr interessant (Besonders gefällt mir die Aussage "We'll see US$20 [per million British thermal units] gas prices."):
Natural gas spike seen
Suppliers cutting back: Trust tax change could be factor in pushing up prices
Claudia Cattaneo and Jon Harding, Financial Post
Published: Wednesday, November 08, 2006
CALGARY - Ottawa's trust policy could play an unintended role in boosting natural-gas prices, exacerbating cuts in supplies just as non-trust producers rein in activity.
"It's adding fuel to the fire," said Martin Pelletier, analyst at Canaccord Adams. "Canada may get the tax dollars, but a year later you are going to get a different story when you look at your gas bill."
Natural-gas prices have been weak for almost a year, tempering heating bills, as North American inventories swelled to record highs because of last year's warm winter.
Large producers such as Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., EnCana Corp., Talisman Energy Inc. and Devon Energy Inc. are ruthlessly cutting their drilling programs to help roll back supplies and ease rising oil-field costs.
"The macro picture on natural gas only becomes worse when we hit 2008. We have blown through storage and there is no new gas being brought on because things have been shut in," said George Gosbee, chairman of Tristone Capital Inc. "We'll see US$20 [per million British thermal units] gas prices."
Natural-gas prices fell below US$5 this summer, held down by an uneventful hurricane season in the United States, but rebounded in the past month with the first signs of winter. Yesterday, gas closed at $7.755 in New York. Gas has regained 21% in the past month.
The trust sector, which is focused on natural-gas drilling, says a potential fallout of Ottawa's decision last week to start taxing trusts is that they won't have as much capital available to produce as much gas as they have in the past.
John Langille, vice-chairman of Canadian Natural, which is planning to reduce gas production to 1.6 billion cubic feet a day from 2 bcf/d and cut spending by up to $1.5-billion next year, said prices could spike if the winter is normal or cold.
"It's something that the whole industry is going to have to take into account in the next six months," Mr. Langille told reporters outside a company-sponsored meeting with analysts.
"Right now, we have lots of gas and storage is full. But if we have a cold winter, a lot of gas in storage could be taken out of the system, and yet at the same time everybody has slowed down so dramatically, so the potential is we will have trouble filling that storage back for the fall of 2007."
On the other hand, if the winter is warm and inventories remain bloated into the spring, gas prices could stay weak into 2008, he said.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers was in the throes yesterday of reviewing the sector's capital spending estimates for 2007 to take into account expectations of lower spending from the trust sector, which accounts for up to 20% of Canadian oil and gas production.
Vice-president Greg Stringham said overall spending will likely be lower than the $40-billion to $45-billion previously estimated.
"One thing for sure is that a dollar that goes to the tax side of things - although for the most of these companies it won't happen until 2011 - is a dollar that won't be invested in the ground," he said. "Oil and gas companies are notorious for re-investing immediately what they earn."
Mr. Stringham said many factors could influence gas prices, including how quickly supplies in Canada are phased out, whether U.S. drilling is also restrained, and weather.
"It's not going to be a sudden spike downward in production, like we had with the hurricanes last year," when 20% of U.S. production was turned off. In comparison, Canada's entire exports account for 16% of U.S. supplies.
So far, EnCana has announced a $1-billion cut in spending, Canadian Natural between $1-billion and $1.5-billion, and Talisman Energy is deferring $1-billion, representing almost 10% of the capital spent in Western Canada last year. In addition, companies have been reducing spending on coalbed methane and shallow gas programs.
The trust sector, which spent $5.3-billion this year, may be further hit by not being able to acquire oil and gas properties in the next four years under Ottawa's new rules, bringing into question whether those assets considered marginal will be developed.
Mr. Pelletier estimated that the impact from the announced cutbacks by the three large producers, combined with the potential impact of lower trust spending, will take out at least about 1.6 billion cubic feet a day, or about 10% of Canadian gas supplies.
Another possibility is if Canada's oil and gas trusts spend the next four years developing their assets as fast as possible to take advantage of the tax holiday, which could actually boost supplies, said Mr. Pelletier.
ccattaneo@nationalpost
FOUR EASY STEPS TO PUMP UP GAS
1. Glut of natural gas in the wake of a warm winter forces prices down
2. Big producers cut back because of low prices and higher costs
3. Many small producers forced to cut back as a result of income trust ruling
4. Overall production falls, thereby putting upward pressure on price |
Thread abonnieren
