Aixtron purpose of this thread

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10.01.20 16:19
14

1239 Postings, 4535 Tage baggo-mhAixtron purpose of this thread

For the time being this forum is closed to keep users that do not contribute essential news around the stock, the market opportunity or messages related to it out.

Please be friendly to eachother and keep political discussions out.

Thank you
 laugthingcool baggo-mh

 
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1316 Postings ausgeblendet.

06.07.22 16:58
1

950 Postings, 1896 Tage CWL1AGM 2023

Hi Baggo,

Your itinerary looks great!  Who could resist?  The share price would be so high by then such that the rowdy Aixtroneers with Kosher in hands might do a victory dance at the AGM lunch.  That would be a nightmare for Guido.

Regards,
CWL

 

06.07.22 17:10

950 Postings, 1896 Tage CWL1oops

I meant Kolsch of course. You've got the idea.  

06.07.22 18:16
1

950 Postings, 1896 Tage CWL1SiC Growth

No question the growth of SiC is taking place fast.

In #1089 and 1090, I estimated ~500 G5 equivalent tools needed by 2025 to satisfy 20m EV.  

A latest industry projection confirmed the 20.6m EV number by 2025.  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...20uptake%2520in%2520China.

One 6" SiC wafer provides chips for 3-8 EV's depending on what models and who is talking.  

In #1094, Baggo posted what Aixtron said:
"Annual volume 30-50 systems/year for the next 5 years"

So the numbers roughly match (Keep in mind that there are already installed SiC epi tools).
 

08.07.22 12:07

1239 Postings, 4535 Tage baggo-mhCorrection is an opportunity: Up to BUY from HOLD

Correction is an opportunity: Up to BUY from HOLD

Correction with the semi equipment market. 5 weeks ago, Aixtron shares surpassed the AlsterResearch price target or EUR 27, resulting in a valuation that fully reflected the quality of the business and the growth perspectives at the time, triggering our downgrade to HOLD. Relative valuation showed a significant premium to a broad semiconductor equipment peer group, and only a small discount to ASML (11% on EV/EBITDA 23E). Since then, shares of Aixtron have experienced a significant rerating by 23%, correcting even more sharply than the peer group and widening the discount to ASML to 16%.

On its own cycle. The market correction is driven by fears of a cyclical downturn of semiconductor end markets, which tends to hit the equipment manufacturers hardest. However, this is not doing Aixtron justice, as it is increasingly serving uncorrelated end markets with strong structural growth drivers, like the SiC power market, which is driven by electric vehicles and charging stations, and the potentially huge and only now emerging market for Micro LEDs. Order activity thus looks set to remain buoyant into H2.

Quality not in doubt. Over time, Aixtron has steadily gained market share and now has a near-monopoly position in the MOCVD market for the deposition of compound semiconductors. This allows the company to widen the gap to the competition with the help of a generous R&D budget. Pricing power is thus likely to improve further. At the same time, the weaker EUR versus the USD is supportive of the gross margin and might provide upside to the guidance of a gross margin of 41% and EBIT margin of 21-23% for 22E.

Upgrade to BUY, unchanged PT EUR 27. Considering all of the above, it seems like a good opportunity to get exposure to a high-quality business largely decoupled from the overall business cycle. We upgrade Aixtron from HOLD to BUY with unchanged price target of EUR 27.00.

https://research-hub.de/companies/research/...er&utm_medium=email

Gruß
laugthingcool baggo-mh

 

10.07.22 10:31
1

1239 Postings, 4535 Tage baggo-mhAIXTRON: Short-Engagement von Canada Pension Plan

AIXTRON: Short-Engagement von Canada Pension Plan Investment Board zurückgefahren - Aktiennews

reduced form 1,97% to 1,84%

https://www.aktiencheck.de/exklusiv/...ckgefahren_Aktiennews-14617366

 

13.07.22 12:56
1

407 Postings, 1722 Tage AlexandrowDWS

Nachricht: Stimmrechtsanteile: AIXTRON SE: Release according to Article 40, Section 1 of the WpHG [the German Securities Trading Act] with the objective of Europe-wide distribution (10229554) - 11.07.22 - News
erhöht Anteile auf 5,16 %.
 

13.07.22 22:20
2

950 Postings, 1896 Tage CWL1Infineon Started its Malaysia SiC and GaN Plant

Groundbreaking for Infineon's Malaysian plant
The total investment is about 14.4 billion

According to foreign media reports, on July 7, Infineon invested more than 2 billion euros (about 14.4 billion yuan in total) to officially lay the foundation stone for the third plant built in Kulim, Malaysia. The construction is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2024, creating About 900 jobs.

Infineon said that the plant mainly involves key processes such as epitaxy and wafer cutting , and will significantly expand the production capacity of wide-bandgap (silicon carbide and gallium nitride) semiconductors. The first batch of wafers is planned to be produced in the second half of 2024 . goods.
Moreover, when its Kulim 3 plant is fully equipped, it will generate additional annual revenue of 2 billion euros for Infineon from silicon carbide and gallium nitride products.

In the next few years, Infineon's 6"/8" silicon production line in Villach, Austria will also be retrofitted for the production of SiC and GaN, serving as an innovation base and global competence center for their wide bandgap technology, aiming for this century $1 billion in revenue from SiC-based power semiconductors in the medium term .

 

14.07.22 16:27

950 Postings, 1896 Tage CWL1Infineon Malaysia

13 July 2022

Infineon lays foundation of third wafer fab module in Kulim, Malaysia

http://www.semiconductor-today.com/news_items/...nfineon-130722.shtml  

14.07.22 17:22
2

950 Postings, 1896 Tage CWL12B Investment from Infineon

Infineon is on schedule to invest 2B Eur in Malaysia focusing on the front-end epi and wafer cutting for SiC and GaN power semi.  Assuming ~30% of the investment goes to MOCVD tools, it can be a 600M opportunity for Aixtron.  If Aixtron wins the business which is highly likely, orders should start in mid 2023  to meet Infineon's H2/2024 production schedule.    

19.07.22 01:03
1

950 Postings, 1896 Tage CWL1Why down 5% today, my 2 cents

There was a downward Q2 earnings revision by certain analysts from 94.3m to 93m today after the close.   In addition, the new Q3 earning estimates is now 131m, short of the 140m projected in a previous post (#1299).  Furthermore, the 2022 rev estimate is now 489m which is short of the anticipated 500m considering the benefit of currency tailwind.   Pessimism is being propagated for whatever the reason or source.  Traders who got the information ahead were front running.  

19.07.22 03:44
1

950 Postings, 1896 Tage CWL1Kingsoon Expands

Kingsoon Optoelectronics plans A-share IPO and will build the country's largest quaternary LED production base

"with an estimated total investment of 800 million yuan"

http://www.25qingdao.com/baoxian/2022/0717/72619.html

Kingsoon is a customer of Aixtron:

https://www.aixtron.com/en/investors/...ems%2520from%2520AIXTRON_n226  

19.07.22 10:10
3

530 Postings, 5662 Tage fel216Share price moves


Hi all,

I think the share price moves are closely linked to Semi / Semicap and Tech sectors at the moment. Also I see some short-sellers building positions. I can also understand if people take profit after still a strong YTD Performance of +26% vs. S&P 500 -20% and German DAX in similar regions. So sell the outperformer.

Fundamentally I am obviously of different opinion. Aixtron remains in excellent shape. Strong orders, sales, new equipment with higher price per machine, so driving better margins. FX a massive tailwinds here at 1.00 vs. 1.20 budget rate!

But, look at the sector: US Semi Index SOX -13% since beginning of June, ASML the same over that period, Micron with weaker revenue guidance, Apple reducing some hiring and reducing spending, Infineon -20% since early June. Aixtron on the other hand only -8% (until 2 days ago) since beginning of June. So the stock is following the other names here I believe.

The market (generalist investors) are worried that we are/have overbuilt in Semi Capex and it doesnt differentiate by application. Stupid. Obviously Aixtron is not hit given SIC/GAN/Micro LED etc. But for us, that is great! It provides great re-entry points.. big technical support (200d MA) at ? 20.

Lets see where the down move ends, but we as specialists know that results will be good, balance sheet is strong and Management conservative/reliable.

Q2 results on 28.07...

have a nice summer all!
Fel
 

19.07.22 10:46

107 Postings, 936 Tage joss.beaumontCWL and fel

many thanks for sharing your informations with us.

Und ja, fel du schreibst:

The market (generalist investors) are worried that we are/have overbuilt in Semi Capex and it doesnt differentiate by application. Stupid. Obviously Aixtron is not hit given SIC/GAN/Micro LED etc. But for us, that is great! It provides great re-entry points.. big technical support (200d MA) at ? 20.

Das sehe ich exakt genau so. und bleibe - infogedessen - vollumfänglich investiert.

Und auch hier schliessse ich mich vorbehaltlos an: 

have a nice summer all! or bon été à tous

à bientôt

Jossy



 

19.07.22 16:59

950 Postings, 1896 Tage CWL1ASM Int. buys LPE

This potentially could lead to a stronger SiC EPI equipment competitor:

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/...MENT-BUSINESS.html  

21.07.22 16:07
1

950 Postings, 1896 Tage CWL1Q2 and beyond

On May 5 when Aixtron reported Q1 sales of "only" 88.6 m the stock tanked about 8%.  Some investors seemed to be surprised by the number when estimates of ~85m had been well telegraphed before that day.

That Aixtron would have Q2 sales of "ONLY" 94.5m caused the stock to tank 5% Monday.  Some investors worried about the Deja Vu of Q1 earnings and got out.

The latest sale estimates by the analysts are 129M for Q3, 182M for Q4 and 124M for Q1/23.  The Q4 sales number implies Q2 orders of 135m.  The Q1/23 sales of 124m indicates a strong Q3 order of 148m.  If so, Aixtron would up its 2022 order guidance.  

I think the stock has priced in the modest Q2 94m sales and is beginning to reflect a stronger H2.  

26.07.22 21:25

950 Postings, 1896 Tage CWL1WIN Semiconductors

warned about its Q3 earnings and cut 2022 capital expenditure from 400m to 267m yesterday.  This partly explains the weakness today.  

28.07.22 11:20

1239 Postings, 4535 Tage baggo-mhAixtron: strong order intake

https://www.dgap.de/dgap/News/corporate/starke-auftragslage-hoechster-auftragseingang-seit-erster-volumenauftrag-micro-leds-gan-und-sic-groesste-treiber-umsatz-und-gewinn-erheblich-gesteigert-wachstumsprognose-fuer-bestaetigt/?newsID=1621843

A few comments.

Order backlog ?315 Million of which 30% are in USD valued at 1,20. Potentrial upside on 1/3 of the backlog approx. ?20 Million.

Shipping forecast againt this back-log ?150 Million which leaves ?165 M for 2023.

First volume order for MicroLED received.

Check out the IR Presentation for details. https://www.aixtron.com/investoren/publikationen/ir-praesentationen/2022/AIXA_Q2-2022_Investor-Presentation.pdf

Regards
laugthingcool baggo-mh


 

28.07.22 11:37

107 Postings, 936 Tage joss.beaumontYes baggo....

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/roundup-weiter-hohe-nachfrage-aixtron-sieht-sich-auf-kurs-zu-jahreszielen-11573399

Vor allem die Micro-LED Story steht ja erst am Anfang. Da sit noch einiges an Potnzial vorhanden. In diesem boot bleibe ich noch lange sitzen...

Wie war das noch bei Felix: The best......

Regards

Jossywink


 

28.07.22 16:27
1

1239 Postings, 4535 Tage baggo-mhCC zum Q2 Ergebnis 28.07.2022

CC zum Q2 Ergebnis 28.07.2022

These are my personal notes from the call today.

Turnover        
 - Q3 will be larger than Q2
 - Q4 will be larger than Q3
spares & parts to be around 20ish % of total
36% of the revenue is invoiced in USD

Felix sees continuous strong momentum


Sales in Q2 by application by contribution

1.) red LED
2.) SiC
3.) Datacom Laser

4.) MicroLED (shipments are for trial and R&D tools) 10-20% of total

Price increases

Have been have been announced and are part of the order back-log. They become effective for all orders placed after the announcement.

Lead Time
Therefore the high inventory levels


GaN Power
Fast chargers replacing Si in chargers and have already a very, very high market share high
Data Centers
white goods (refrigerators etc)
most Laptops still  shipped with regulars GaN charges

SiC Power
Tool is fully automated (Batch production of 6 or 8? wafers) and 4 to 5 times more productive in terms of wafer output) than the tool of LPE.
 
LPE was acquired by ASM and there is an estimate for 100 Million sales of SiC tools in 2023. Aixtron does not want to comment on that number, but if would mean a huge ramp of one of the LPE customers. LPE is mostly China turnover, single wafer tool and much less automated (semi-automated according to Felix)           
China is building their own SiC supply chain. Local SiC wafer production, local SiC Epi tools, local MOFEST production.    


MicroLED
Order received is for red, green, and blue MicroLED systems and comprises of 2 handful of systems.

Shipment towards the end of the year 2022 and further orders for the ramp expected in H2/22 and H1/23.

Felix made one statement which gave it away: ?Depending on when we record the order?. For me that means Aixtron already knows the size of the ramp-order but has yet to add it to the order back-log. That would indicate further good news in the coming months.


2023 and 2024 the majority of the orders are expected to come from MicroLED as other customers are still in the qualification stage.

All in all a very convincing telecon.

Regards
laugthingcool baggo-mh

 

29.07.22 14:28

107 Postings, 936 Tage joss.beaumontDZ-Bank

https://www.finanzen.net/analyse/aixtron_se_verkaufen-dz_bank_831053

Aus meinem Blickwinkel: Völliger Schwachsinn!

Zur Info (stolen from baggo):

Turnover        
 - Q3 will be larger than Q2
 - Q4 will be larger than Q3
spares & parts to be around 20ish % of total
36% of the revenue is invoiced in USD

un bon week-end

Jossysealed

 

01.08.22 15:42

1239 Postings, 4535 Tage baggo-mhHSCEL

Apple with a patent registration in July. https://www.lightreading.com/...cs-launches-hcsel-laser/d/d-id/602006
HSCEL: horizontal instead of vertical Laser, a combination of VCSEL and EEL https://www.lightreading.com/binoptics-launches-hcsel-laser/d/d-id/602006

Wer nutzt u.a. Aixtron reactors to produce VCSEL parts?
II-VI Inc.
If Apple will use this in future releases other manufacturrers will follow.

Regards
laugthingcool baggo-mh


 

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