Der US-Markt befindet sich nun in einer Zone, so die Comstock-Boyz, die man als fair bewertet ansehen könnte (die Kennziffern s.u.), aber er ist halt angesichts der Lage nicht wirklich günstig bzw. not cheap. Diese momentan faire Bewertung macht allerdinds eine Bärenmarkt-Rally mit einem „cyclical bottom“ in näherer Zeit recht wahrscheinlich. Wie auch immer, der Markt hat die potentielle Länge und Tiefe der Rezession noch keinesfalls vollständig diskontiert, so Comstock-Funds, und die Historie zeigt auf, dass die Börsen daher noch signifikant fallen können.
Market Now Fairly Valued--But Not Cheap
A serious recession, however, can't be avoided. The economy was slowing perceptibly before the credit crisis, and has now fallen off a cliff into the unknown. We are seeing significant slowdowns or outright declines in consumer spending, employment and production, and this will get worse as the effects of the credit freeze show up in the current quarter and beyond. The market has been so busy reacting to events on the credit front that it has not, until the last few days, paid much attention to the declining economy we see ahead. The fact that the market is now in a fair valuation range means that bear market rallies are more likely and that we will have to be more alert in looking for a cylical bottom. However, we do not sense that the market has yet discounted the potential length and depth of the recession, and history tells us that stocks can still decline significantly from current levels.
On reported (GAAP) earnings, the metric we prefer, the S&P 500 is now selling at 15.9 times trailing 12-month earnings compared to a an 82-year average of 16. At a number of past bottoms the index has troughed at P/E multiples between six and ten.
The Dow Jones price-to-dividend ratio has dropped to 26 (yielding 3.85%) compared to a 93-year average of 27.2. Note, however, that on numerous occasions the ratio has bottomed at less than 17.
The S&P Industrials price-to-cash flow ratio has declined to 8, compared to a 50-year average of 9.6. It's significant ,though, that the ratio lingered between 4 and 7.5 for the 7 years between 1947 and 1954, and for 12 years between 1974 and 1986.
The S&P price-to-sales ratio recently dropped to 0.8, compared to a 54-year median of 0.92. The ratio bottomed at 0.38 in 1974 and 0.35 in 1982.
Finally, the S&P 500 price-to-book ratio recently fell to 1.5, well below the 30-year norm of 2.4. However, the ratio troughed at slightly below 1.0 in 1982.
It is evident from the above-mentioned metrics that the market, for the first time in a long while, is now in a zone of fair valuation, although it is far from cheap. If history is any guide the market can still go a lot lower, and probably will. The credit crisis is the greatest since the depression, while the recession looks as if it will be lengthy and possibly deep. The global authorities have gone to great lengths to avert a financial meltdown through nationalization, massive lending, asset purchases and buying equity. Their actions and statements indicate that they will do anything necessary to avert a systemic breakdown of the financial system, and they will probably succeed, although not without some serious bumps along the way.
http://www.comstockfunds.com/...tary&newsletterid=1414&menugroup=Home -----------
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