Aixtron purpose of this thread

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10.01.20 16:19
14

1436 Postings, 5125 Tage baggo-mhAixtron purpose of this thread

For the time being this forum is closed to keep users that do not contribute essential news around the stock, the market opportunity or messages related to it out.

Please be friendly to eachother and keep political discussions out.

Thank you
 laugthingcool baggo-mh

 
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1655 Postings ausgeblendet.

14.03.24 15:41
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1087 Postings, 2486 Tage CWL12023 Orders

These charts show the backlog was dropping in 2023, yet inventories rising, which raised the ratio.  Backlog dropping because order intakes were slowing
.  
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14.03.24 16:35
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1087 Postings, 2486 Tage CWL1Equipment Sales

Opto and LED started to decline a bout 2 years ago and show stabilization over the last 2 Q's.  Question is, would they go back up in 2024?  The charts show that it is possible in one year they could climb > 50% from 23 to approach their previous peak.  Power is expected to be flat in 2024.

Equipment sales is ~ 85% of the total revenue.  If Opto and LED contribute 100m each to  equipment sales, they would contribute 235m  rev.  If Power stays at 400m, it would contribute 470m to rev. Adding up, that would be the 705m projected 2024 sales, the upper end of the guidance that Felix talked about in the CC.  
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14.03.24 17:27
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1087 Postings, 2486 Tage CWL12024 Orders

To reach 705m euro sales in 2024, Aixtron needs to have a trailing 4Q orders of 720m by Q224 based on my model.  Orders trail sales by 6-12 month.

Aixtron's total order intake in Q323 and Q423 was 322m.  So Aixtron needs additional 400m orders in the H1 of 2024 to reach the target.   The Equipment only would be 400mx0.85=340m.  Probably 75% of them are shippable in 2024 which to 255m, which is consist with Aixtron's 190-280m shippable equipment, midpoint 235m,  guidance to meet the 630m-720m sales guidance.



 

19.03.24 16:14
3

1087 Postings, 2486 Tage CWL1Geographical Information

There is interesting and erroneous information about Aixtron's markets in Asia from Aixtron's 2023 and 2022 annual reports.

"Revenues from external customers are attributed to individual countries based on the country in which it is expected that the products will be used."

Aixtron generated 213m rev from China which increased from 2022; the 2022 China sales of 228m is an error, see next post.  Adding sales from the three Asian countries equals 308m. So sales from Korea + Japan were only about 6m in 2023. Those two have great potential for Aixtron in 2024, growing from very low bases, thinking Samsung, SK Siltrons, Rohm, etc. The 52m sales from Malaysia must be the Osram plants for microLED. No sales from Infineon's Malaysia plans, yet?

There were 160m sales in Europe outside Germany. Most were for Onsemi's Czech plant accounts.  Are some Infineon and STM in it?

Most of the US sales went to Wolfspeed.  Good US growth from 2022 to 2023. No sales to t Wolfspeed's JP manufacturing center being constructed in NC. Expect G10-SiC sales to Wolfspeed's Texas epi plant which is scheduled to ramp from mid 2024. Orders for the JP plant should come soon.  

19.03.24 16:16
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1087 Postings, 2486 Tage CWL1Continue

 
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19.03.24 16:17
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1087 Postings, 2486 Tage CWL12022 geographical information

 
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19.03.24 16:30
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1087 Postings, 2486 Tage CWL1continue

In the 2023 annual report, the 2022 China sales are listed 228m.  In the 2022 annual report, the 2022 China sales are listed 151m. Why the discrepancy?

I think the 2022 China sales should be 212m.  That China sales number listed in the 2022 report are reversed.  What a mess....

I have sent an email to Aixtron's IR to clarify.

Furthermore, where are the Korean sales in the 2023 report and the Malaysia sales in 2022 report?  

20.03.24 15:15
3

1087 Postings, 2486 Tage CWL1Wolfspeed's JP Manufacturing Plant Schedule

Aixtron sold 126m to US market in 2023 up from 2022's 84m, majority of the tools were sold to Wolfspeed's Durham plant.  

The new JP plant with 10x increase in material capacity should come online in late 2024 and start ramping from 2025. Aixtron's G10-SiC would go there and before that the orders would be recognized, once the JP fab is ready and firm shipping dates are confirmed by Wolfspeed.  

Every SiC substrate needs an epi layer and every Wolfspeed's 200mm substrate shipping to  Mohawk fab will have the epi layer deposited at its JP plant.
------------------------------
From the Wolfspeed's 2/1/2024 CC:

...as it relates to our materials facility at the JP in Siler City, we will begin installing crystal growers in early February and would expect to begin qualifying furnaces in the September quarter of this year. All the learnings with 200 millimeter crystal growth at Building 10 will better position us to hit the ground running in Siler City and we anticipate boule production starting by the end of calendar 2024...

..and then when the JP starts making meaningful substrate deliveries to Mohawk Valley, probably in the back half of calendar ’25...

...when the JP comes online from a production perspective and think about that in that kind of March, June time frame of 2025..

...Where that will change is when we start ramping the deliveries of 200 millimeter substrates to Renesas out of the JP. That’s when the capacity expansion hits in pretty full steam.  Note: that would be 2027 timeframe.

...In terms of demand for the product and I would say, gross margin proxy for pricing, the demand for high-quality wafers remains very, very high. We constantly have customers saying they would like to get more for us this quarter and next quarter, et cetera.

 

21.03.24 20:15
2

1087 Postings, 2486 Tage CWL1China's SiC Epi Equipment Market

https://www.eet-china.com/mp/a299873.html

According to this article, Aixtron had just 5% of the SiC epi equipment market share in China in 2023. Total market size was $181m in China in 2023. That means about $9m sales to Aixtron's G10-SiC in China in 2023.

The majority of the SiC epi equipment sales in 2023 was no doubt for 6".  Aixtron was able to penetrate China during 2023 through its new G10-SiC's dual 6"- 8" as well as its batch capability.

The 2024 market size for SiC epi equipment in China is projected to be $289m and likely the 8" equipment will become the major over 6".  What market share will Aixtron gain?
 

21.03.24 21:04

1426 Postings, 6289 Tage rosskata@CWL1: with 5 % market share

can we really speak of market penetration? Isnt' it rather an opening? I'd like to believe Aixtron can extend this 5 % significantly but don't think it can be a certainty.  

21.03.24 23:21
1

1087 Postings, 2486 Tage CWL1@rosskata: penetration

Apparently Aixtron was not able to move forward with its G5 WWC at EpiWorld.  All the indication is that EpiWorld (Hantian Tiancheng) went with LPE and either JSG or Naura for its 2022-23 expansion.  Several major SiC epi wafer expansions in China started in 2022 by companies like Tianyu, Poshing, etc., did not come to Aixtron either.

G10-SiC was introduced in late 2022 and later Aixtron announced a significant performance improvement around Q3 2023. We see Aixtron now has 5% or about 3 G10-SiC share in China during 2023.  

I was thinking penetration from that standpoint, not the number tools sold.  Hopefully the G10-SiC will create a foothold in China, gain acceptance, and start expanding.

 

23.03.24 17:40

1436 Postings, 5125 Tage baggo-mhCWL1 - Thank you

Thank you very much for your valuable contributions and detailed analysis of the market and the Aixtron numbers.

It's always a pleasure to read your posts, comments and market analysis.

Thank you CWL1

Best regards
laugthingcool baggo-mh

 

25.03.24 12:51

1436 Postings, 5125 Tage baggo-mhInsider Purchase

Insider Purchase

immerhin 6K Stück

Gruß
laugthingcool baggo-mh

 

25.03.24 14:55

5 Postings, 5984 Tage mcfly12Annual Report 2022

In the 2022 annual report Taiwan seems to be  counted twiece: China (150,761) + Taiwan (77,46) = 228,221
Still, the dicrepancy regarding Korea & Malaysia remains.  

25.03.24 14:55

5 Postings, 5984 Tage mcfly12Löschung


Moderation
Zeitpunkt: 26.03.24 08:55
Aktion: Löschung des Beitrages
Kommentar: Doppel-Posting

 

 

25.03.24 17:34

1087 Postings, 2486 Tage CWL1@mcfly12:Annual Report 2022

Good detective work with math.

If Aixtron uses the same pattern of 2022 reporting in 2023, the 2023 China sales of 213,254 would also include the Taiwan sales of 42,595. If so, the Japan + Korea sales would be about 314,356-213,254-52,025=49,079.  

Unfortunately, after one week Aixtron never gets back to my e-mail for a clarification.

Both annual reports are audited by KPMG. IMO it is unacceptable with such mistake or misinformation.

 

26.03.24 17:51
2

1436 Postings, 5125 Tage baggo-mhPerpetual Limited

https://www.eqs-news.com/news/pvr/...europe-wide-distribution/2022911 

Please check the above from Feb.29.
According to my calculations that Australian fond sold 782.536 shares on Feb. 29.   
113.411.020 - 2,96% =   3.356.966   
113.411.020 - 3,65% =   4.139.502    
                                          782.536
That  caused an avalanche in the stock price. It went for 31,80 on 28.2. to under 26,00 (closing at 25,68) on 29.2

Woooooow!!

At least we have now identified one reason why the price dropped so significantly end February.

Gruß
laugthingcoolbaggo-mh

 

26.03.24 21:46
1

162 Postings, 1691 Tage crocky@29.02.2024

Hallo baggo, ich denke, dass wenn es nur an diese ca. 782.000 Aktien lag, wäre es nicht so stark nach unten gekommen. Es waren "nur" 12,5% von allen bei XETRA gehangelte Aktien. Es könnte auch am Ende mit"V" enden können, ist aber leider unten geblieben.  
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27.03.24 12:56
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5878 Postings, 3920 Tage dlg.AIXA

Baggo, ich grüße Dich. Deine Rechnung setzt natürlich voraus, dass " Perpetual Limited" am 28. Februar noch bei den 3,65% lag, was wir aber nicht wissen (hätten an dem Tag auch 3,01% gewesen sein können). Aber dass in den Tagen vor den Zahlen und am Tag der Zahlen viel verkauft wurde, ist ja unbestritten und letzten Endes ist es dann mE auch egal, wer das war.

Ansonsten notiert die Aktie gerade auf dem Level vom August 2021, sprich: fast drei Jahre tolle operative Entwicklung quasi zunichte gemacht bzw. Stillstand im Aktienkurs trotz boomender Märkte. In der Gesamtschau schon recht ernüchternd bzw. enttäuschend. Damals lag übrigens der Konsensus für den 2023er Umsatz so zwischen 450 und 500 Mio Euro, geworden sind es dann 630 Mio Euro. Lässt das ganze noch enttäuschender aussehen.

Aber gut, dieses selektive Heraussuchen von einzelnen Daten & Kursen eignen sich für ein ran-Sat1-Datenfuchs-Posting wie dieses hier, aber bringen meistens wenig :-)    

27.03.24 16:28

1087 Postings, 2486 Tage CWL1Wolfspped's JP plant now has a roof

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/charlotte/news/...g-site--gives-tour

Wolfseepd up 4.5% today, Aixtron down 5%.  Tales of twin cities. Go figure.  

28.03.24 09:53

1426 Postings, 6289 Tage rosskataWoolfspeed and Aixtron

Here an article by the magazine Der Aktionär

https://www-deraktionaer-de.translate.goog/...k7Qp9WrWJMQJHp7LjsMpSV9

The fact  that Wolfspeed will seek for a second supplier is not surprising. It's normal.
But I am surprised by the statement that  "batch production is allegedly not suitable for 200mm wafers" and. therefore. Aix might lose Wolfspeed as a customer. How does that fit?!  

28.03.24 14:15

1087 Postings, 2486 Tage CWL1Former CTO of Wolfspeed

There has recently been speculation in financial circles that Aixtron could lose both Wolfspeed as a customer in the business with systems for the production of silicon carbide (SiC) components because batch production is allegedly not suitable for 200mm wafers. The speculation is allegedly based on public statements made by the former CTO of Wolfspeed a few months ago.

The former CTO of Wolfspeed is John Palmer who passed away in November 2022. The new and current CTO is Elif Balkas who was appointed in Jan. 2023.

That raises the question of the accuracy of that rumer.

 

28.03.24 15:08
1

1087 Postings, 2486 Tage CWL1@rosskata:batch reactor

Batch reactor is just a general term.  There are many types of CVD batch reactor.

Aixtron's planetary reactor is batch reactor type but unique with each wafer rotating and controlled independently to generate single wafer reactor-like quality.  

28.03.24 16:11

1087 Postings, 2486 Tage CWL1Aixtron in Wolfspeed

It is generally known that Aixtron did not win the majority of the  6"/150mm SiC epi tool business in CREE/Wolfspeed based on the G5 WW C reactor design.  The single wafer tool reactors by LPE, Nuflare, etc. and mostly LPE have that business.  Nuflare is also know to have had relatively small production capability.

That changed when Wolfspeed goes 8"/200m by starting to create the massive Mohawk fab.  The new Mohawk plant being constructed and ramped needs 8" epi wafer supplies.  Wolfspeed selected Aixtron new G10-SiC for its 200mm/8" capability in March 2022.  Initially, the Aixtron's G10-SiC went to  Wolfspeed's epi wafer facilities in Duram also known as building 10.  At the same time, Wolfspeed started  constructing the John Palmer (JP) material fab in NC that will do both 8" crystal growth and epi wafers.

The JP and Mohawk plants plants are on 8" SiC only.  In the mean time, most of Wolfspeed's current SiC businesses are 6" SiC. Why didn't Aixtron win Wolfspeed's 6" SiC business? And is it possibel that Aixtron's G10-SiC will penetrate Wolfspeed's 6"?

According to Felix, Aixtron's G10-SiC has now closed the 6" performance gap. Notice that the emphasis is on the 150mm. G10-SiC is now also competive at 6" against the incumbent 6" epi tools.

From the Q3-23 CC:
For the G10-SiC, our new tool for the Silicon Carbide material system which we have
launched last year, we receive a continuous strong flow of orders. From all our
existing high volume customers, we have received repeat orders in the past quarters,
and we have strengthened our competitive position by making further progress in
terms of uniformity performance. We are now achieving uniformities on par with –
and in some cases even better than – single-wafer tools. In 200mm we had reached
this already earlier. For the 150mm wafer size, we have fully closed the uniformity
gap in the past quarter.
Based on this, we can now fully focus on the advantages of
our planetary reactor on productivity and cost. The batch offers inherent advantages
in these two dimensions, and we continue to win new accounts for our technology.
This will turn into revenue in the quarters to come.

 

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