Zum Vergleich 2016 - 2019 hier eine kurze Zusammenfassung der IHS Markit Meldungen zu den Shortzahlen vom 13.11.15 (vor Zatarra) bis 14.8.17.
Dazu einige Beobachtungen:
1) Die Shortquote (im April/Mai bis zu 25%) war damals wesentlich höher als 2019 (max. 15.25% im Februar).
2) Die Gesamtdauer der signifikant erhöhten Shortquote betrug mehr als ein Jahr. Bereits ab November 2015, also zwei Monate vor der Zatarra Attacke, brachten sich die LV in Stellung und die Quote stieg von 8 auf 22%. Noch im März 2017 lag die Quote bei 20%, erst im April/Mai 2017 fiel sie auf 15%.
3) Der Verlauf ist insofern interessant, als auch damals die Quote vor den Q2 Zahlen fast um die Hälfte fiel. Allerdings stieg sie, anders als 2019, nach den August-Zahlen bis Mitte September auf 18%. Nachdem der WDI-Kurs von Ende September bis Mitte Dezember um 15% fiel, stiegen einige Shorts bis Mitte Dezember (wieder?) ein und die Quote stieg sogar auf 20%. Genau zu diesem Zeitpunkt ging Wirecards Rally endgültig los und erwischte die im Dezember zu spät gekommenen Shorts auf dem falschen Fuss.
Dass aktuell bei einer im Vergleich zu 2016 viel niederigeren, stagnierenden Shortquote von ca. 7.2% der Kurs seit Mitte Juni zwar leicht, aber kontinuierlich fällt, ist m.E. auf die abwartende Haltung vieler grosser Investoren wegen Singapur zurückzuführen: http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/...US&ownerCountry=USA. Diese Unsicherheit wird von den LV solange ausgenutzt, bis durch den Softbank-Abschluss und grosse Kooperationen ein nachhaltiges(!) Momentum (ca. :8-10%/Woche) entsteht. Bei der aktuellen Shortquote scheint dies allerdings allein mit Kleinanlegern nicht möglich. Singapur, obwohl bilanztechnisch irrelevant und juristisch überbewertet, hemmt nach wie vor den Kurs beträchtlich.
13 November 2015
Most shorted ahead of earnings in Europe is German electronic payment solutions company Wirecard. Shares outstanding on loan have risen to 10%, almost doubling in the last year while the stock has surged 27% in the last three months.
01 April 2016
In Europe, payment processor Wirecard sees 23.5% of shares out on loan ahead of its earnings update which is the most out of any company announcing earnings this week. The company has been the target of an activist short campaign from Zatarra Research which has alleged that the company was involved in historical fraud and money laundering something which Wirecard management has actively denied. Despite the public rebuttal, Wirecard shares have continued to slump; prompting short sellers to add to their positions to the current all-time high.
25 April 2016
German constituents in the Stoxx 600 are marginally more short sold than the broader index with the current average rising to 2.8%.. In fact German firm Wirecard is the most shorted stock across the Stoxx 600 with 24.5% of shares outstanding on loan.
13 May 2016
Most shorted ahead of earnings this week in Europe is Wirecard which has been the target of activist short seller Zatarra Research which alleged the firm of fraud. While Wirecard shares have recovered strongly from their lows post the allegations coming to light, short sellers have been staying the course as demand to borrow its shares has remained near the 24% of shares outstanding mark despite the 30% adverse price movement.
12 August 2016
The most notable change in shorting activity in the lead-up to earnings was seen in German payment processor Wirecard which has seen its short interest shrink by a quarter in the month leading up to earnings. Wirecard was the target of an activist short Zatarra Research which accused the firm of engaging fraudulent practices as well as money laundering. Short sellers initially benefited as Wirecard shares slid by a third, but they have since gone on to recover most of their lost ground which has seen a growing number of bearish investors capitulate as their once winning trade turned sour. The most recent bout of short covering means that the current 12.5% of Wirecard shares shorted is roughly half that of its recent yearly highs.
14 November 2016
The key European short target announcing earnings this week is German payment processor Wirecard. Wirecard came under heavy scrutiny earlier this year when a critical research report raised allegations regarding the company's lack of internal controls. The resulting fall saw short sellers zero in on Wirecard shares of which 25% were out on loan at the peak in April. However, the company has been able to placate some its doubters and its shares have rebounded from the lows. Short sellers are also showing little appetite to short into this recent rally as the current demand to borrow Wirecard shares is down by over a third from the previous highs.
03 April 2017
The most significant of this week's short targets is German payment processor Wirecard which has 17% of its shares out on loan. Wirecard was the target of an activist short campaign last year which alleged the firm of fraud and bad bookkeeping. The firm has strongly denied these accusations and the market seems to be siding with management as evidenced by the fact that Wirecard shares are now trading at an all-time high. The continuing strong demand to borrow Wirecard shares indicates that not all sceptics have been placated although the firm has seen some covering in recent days which could indicate that this scepticism is starting to wear off.
15 May 2017
The most shorted European company announcing results this week is payment processing firm Wirecard which has 15% of its shares out on loan. Wirecard continues to see residual short interest after becoming the target of an activist short campaign last year. The campaign accused the firm of fraud - something which it vigorously refuted. The market has since moved on as evidenced by the fact that Wirecard share have doubled from their post accusation lows to a new all-time high. Short sellers were initially willing to ride the tally, however the appetite to short Wirecard has waned in recent weeks as demand to borrow the firm's shares has fallen by 13% in the last month.
14 August 2017
One company which short sellers are unwilling to short is payment processor Wirecard. Payment processing is the darling of deep pocketed private equity companies of late, which has led to several takeover deals. To the chagrin of short sellers, Wirecard shares have been dragged to new highs by this takeover frenzy, and the demand to borrow its shares plummeted more than 50% in the last six months.
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