auf längere Sicht (12-24 Mo) ist die Aussicht viel besser...
The faster a company grows, the higher its stock's P/E can be. Contrary to popular belief, PEG (P/E over Growth Rate) need not always be 1.00 or less. But all else being equal, lower is better (and 3.00 is usually too high). Try to favor company PEGs that are lower than industry and market PEGs. In all cases, watch for very high growth estimates. If overly optimistic projections get cut, PEG would wind up being higher. FY = Fiscal Year. Price/EPS (Est.) for Current FY Price/EPS (Est.) for Next FY Long Term Growth Estimate Next FY P/E over LT Growth Xechem International, Inc NA NA NA NA Biotechnology & Drugs 32.59 24.42 22.12 1.25 S&P 500 17.66 15.31 12.00 1.44 Comparative Valuation Ratios
Valuation below industry or S&P 500 averages can be attractive - unless the company is materially worse in terms of quality growth prospects. Year-by-year trends in comparative valuations can give clues about company merit. Be especially on guard if comparative ratios are deteriorating over time. On the other hand, relatively low valuations that are moving toward the averages might indicate that the market is tuning in to heretofore under-appreciated company merit. FY = Fiscal Year, TTM = Trailing Twelve Months, * = Most Recent Quarter. Xechem International, Inc Price/ Earnings Price/ Sales Price/ Book Price/ Cash Flow Price/ Tang. Book Price/Free Cash Flow Trailing 12 Months NA 4,884.17 * NA NA * NA NA FY Ending 12/31/05 NM NM (0.91) (0.38) (0.91) (0.81) FY Ending 12/31/04 NM 23.58 (7.35) (0.23) (7.35) (0.83) FY Ending 12/31/03 NM 4.96 (6.04) (0.43) (6.04) (0.80) FY Ending 12/31/02 NM 2.24 (0.78) (0.18) (0.78) (0.47) Bar Chart Key 2002RTTM Biotechnology & Drugs Price/ Earnings Price/ Sales Price/ Book Price/ Cash Flow Price/ Tang. Book Price/Free Cash Flow Trailing 12 Months 35.95 9.14 * 6.57 28.14 * 15.92 38.83 FY Ending 2005 48.30 11.87 6.87 28.05 10.38 39.10 FY Ending 2004 46.50 11.69 5.29 24.44 10.13 36.13 FY Ending 2003 43.50 12.04 5.63 24.06 9.55 27.30 FY Ending 2002 40.55 9.68 4.33 0.44 8.45 34.84 Bar Chart Key 2002RTTM S&P 500 Price/ Earnings Price/ Sales Price/ Book Price/ Cash Flow Price/ Tang. Book Price/Free Cash Flow Trailing 12 Months 19.61 2.74 * 3.67 13.86 * 7.20 30.56 FY Ending 2005 22.68 3.02 4.28 15.50 6.14 22.91 FY Ending 2004 24.57 3.20 4.10 15.72 5.80 24.19 FY Ending 2003 29.58 3.32 4.17 18.58 5.76 27.71 FY Ending 2002 27.62 2.95 4.35 16.42 5.22 26.21 Bar Chart Key 2002RTTM Dividends Dividend is the most classic basis for stockvaluation, and high dividend yields are usuallydeemed preferable. Today, with many companiesreinvesting profits back into the business, moderateor low yields can be accepted if dividends growrapidly. The main risk is that poor performance willcause the dividend to be cut or omitted. A very highpayout ratio is one warning signal. Another is ayield that is very high relative to industry peers. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months. XKEM Industry Current Dividend Yield NA 0.6% 5 Yr. Avg. Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.1% 5 Yr. Dividend Growth Rate NA (32.9)% TTM Payout Ratio NA 0.7% 5 Yr. Average Payout Ratio NA 0.3% Liquid Assets Get a general sense of the extent to which the stockprice is offset by the presence of assets that can beconverted to cash immediately or in the near future. Often, these ratios will not be meaningful. Most companies are valued as ongoing businesses, rather than liquidation/buyout prospects. If you're lookingat an especially troubled company, be aware that seemingly liquid-asset windfalls can be dissipatedby continuing operating losses and/or shutdown costs. Price to ... XKEM Industry General Working Capital (5.2) 14.9 (current assets minus current liabilities) Net Working Capital (4.0) 7.5 (current assets minus all liabilities) Cash (& cash equivalents) NM 18.8 Cash minus total debt (5.4) (2.0) Cash minus all liabilities (3.8) (8.9) Xechem International, Inc (OTC:XKEM) -- Biotechnology & Drugs/Healthcare Reuters Company Research Stock Price Rationale Determine if the stock price is justified by: growth-based value, comparative value, liquid assets, or dividends. The better the company, (in terms of growth or quality), the higher the valuation measures can be. And if valuation ratios are extremely low, double-check to see if the company appears excessively weak. In any case, you don't have to say yes to any valuation measure - many buy shares based on other factors (e.g., growth). But if you do that, at least understand what you're doing and consider the risks. September 1, 2006 Page 7 |