vom Yahoo-Board - nachvollziehbar und wohl realistisch:
My Q4 forecast estimates:
From the Q3 call, we know that AMRS revenues were impacted due to supply chain disruptions as follows: $6MM raw ingredients and $2MM on "membrane" shortages and $6MM to $7MM on the Consumer Products.
Their actual total revenues for the quarter were $47.9MM: $23.2MM Consumer; $13.3MM Ingredients, and $11.4MM in R&D. On Consumer, ~50% of the $23.2MM was from Direct-to-Consumer/online (or, equivalently, $11.6MM).
If things were not disrupted, Q3 should have been closer to $62.9MM to $63.9MM.
AMRS guided Q4 Rev $330MM-$370MM for 2021 (down 7.5% to 17.5% from prior guidance). This implies Q4 Revs forecasted to be $53MM - $83MM.
Let's examine what we know to date:
From the latest online orders I know the following information for each product line:
Biossance (EOQ3 vs. Latest Orders): 1,066,362 vs. 1,218,800 orders (as of 12/12/21 +14.3%)
Pipette (EOQ3 vs. Latest Orders): 218,833 vs. 246,053 orders (as of 11/29/21 +12.4%)
Rose (EOQ3 vs. Latest Orders): 4,364 vs. 18,439 orders (as of 12/2/21 +322.5%)
JVN (EOQ3 vs. Latest Orders): 9,044 vs. 23,617 orders (as of 12/8/21 +161.1%)
Purecane (EOQ3 vs. Latest Orders): 44,373 vs. 50,366 orders (as of 12/12/21 +13.5%)
Olika (EOQ3 vs. Latest Orders): 13,416 vs. 15,316 orders (as of 11/26/21 +14.2%)
Terrasana (EOQ3 vs. Latest Orders): 2,795 vs. 4,160 (as of 12/8/21 +48.8%)
* LiveCostaBrazil not enough information yet (but minor)
Even though the data is only part of Q4, A few things to note:
Rose, JVN are truly knocking it out of the park in terms of QoQ triple-digit-growth and Terrasana is close behind (but a much smaller base)
All of the remaining brands are showing consistent double digit QoQ growth and by the end of the QoQ will likely come close to 20% for the mature brands QoQ.
If we pair up order volumes with the historical average order doller sizes, we should have D2C online sales alone of over $16MM (~2/3rds of the way into the quarter). Now, my estimate is conservative, since typical order sizes are seasonally higher in Q4.
If I assume the rest of the quarter performs in line with the current quarter-to-date, than we should come in above $20MM in online sales (far more than Q3 online sales of ~$11.6MM). This matches well with the post-Black Friday press release which stated a record $10MM in sales for that week of which $5MM in online sales was done in one week (and likewise for the non-D2C side as well).
It is clearly not hard to see them averaging $1.4MM in weekly sales for the rest of the quarter to hit that $20MM+ estimate I just laid out.
In terms of the non-D2C channel for Consumer Products, let's be conservative and assume that AMRS would have hit similar numbers as they originally planned for Q3 given the orders were there and the shipments were just delayed (again, we know they did at least $5MM in non-D2C sales in one week on the week of Black Friday from the press release). This is HIGHLY conservative (given that traditional non-online volumes are seasonally higher than Q3 and basket orders are also larger. So, let's estimate Q4 achieves at least what Q3's original demand was which was $11.6MM + $6MM = $17.6MM.
That places total Consumer Products Business as ~$37.6MM
On the call, Management indicated that ingredient demand was expected to grow over future quarters. If we assume the demand remained what it was supposed to be originally for Q3 and no further growth, this would imply $21.3MM. Again, I am not assuming any growth and there were references to new lines of ingredient revenues that had recently launched I am not including either.
So together, the Underlying Product Revenues (i.e., Consumer Products + Ingredients) would account for at least $58.9MM (i.e., $37.6MM + $21.3MM).
According to the most recent interview with Melo and Evercore on 12/1/21, AMRS is on track from a supply side with no major disruptions (which had been the primary reason they were guiding significantly lower). This leads me to believe that with Underlying Products Revenues alone, AMRS will AT LEAST achieve the low-end of their guidance (i.e, $277MM YTD plus Q3 of $58.9MM in Minimum Underlying Product Revenues).
So this brings us to the last revenue item: "R&D and Other Services". I have no reason to believe they will not get at least the minimum revenue from this source over the last four quarters (i.e., $11.4MM in Q3' 21, $13.2MM in Q2' 21, $4.9MM in Q1' 21, $4.8MM in Q4' 20). So let's assume they conservatively achieve at least $4.8MM in Q4 Revenues from R&D.
This implies Q4 Revenues of $340.7MM.
Additional Upside:
Consumer - Higher Order Volumes/Basket Sizes
Ingredients - Higher than Historic Quarters
R&D and Other Services - Comes in higher than the low end - I would guestimate $11.4MM is not unreasonable.
So, I would estimate AMRS will come in around $350MM in Q4 Revenues (i.e., the midpoint of their guidance)
I hope that helps put some perspective on the situation 8-) |
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