Gebe Dir völlig recht! Mit dem Vertrauen ist das so eine Sache. Vertrauen, hoffen und solch schwammige Gefühlsregungen haben prinzipiell an der Börse wenig verloren - so ganz und gar ohne diese geht es aber wohl auch nicht, sonst würde man das Agieren hier nicht spekulieren nennen sondern Festzinssparen.
Vielleicht wäre diese Formulierung besser: Vertrauen darauf, daß hier (wieder) alles möglich ist.
In welchem Verhälnis die Chancen für Auf-oder Abstieg der Yingli-Aktie stehen, darüber muß sich ohnehin jeder der investiert ist oder investieren will, selbst eine Meinung bilden. Für eine solche Meinungsbildung müssen dann alle Parameter, die einen Kurs beeinflussen können, herangezogen werden. Da wären z.B. die Marktposition, die wirtschaftliche bzw. finanzielle Situation und deren Aussichten, wie ist die Stimmrechtsverteilung zu bewerten und der bisherige Aktienchart, in welchem politischen Umfeld bewegt sich das Unternehmen resp. der Konzernsitz und die Konzernleitung. Mit Blick auf diese Kriterien, gibt es bei Yingli doch einiges an Stoff um sich eine Meinung zu bilden.
ich hab den überraschend starken Anstieg jetzt doch genutzt um meine restlichen shares zu versilbern. 1500 € Gewinn in einem Monat sind schon mal ein schönes nachträgliches Weihnachtsgeschenk und ich brauch die Kohle aktuell auch privat.
Hoffe es ergibt sich die nächsten Monate mal wieder eine gute Einstiegsgelegenheit, sonst habe ich ja noch ein paar andere Eisen im Feuer... :-)
: China Solar: Rebound bei Yingli, Trina und Suntech
New York 09.01.13 - Die Aktien der chinesischen Solarproduzenten haben am Dienstag erneut kräftige Kursgewinne verzeichnet, wobei Yingli Green EnergyTrina Solar und Suntech Power gesucht waren. Die Aussicht auf ein starkes viertes Quartal trieb die Notierungen.
Der stellvertretende Chef der chinesischen Nationalen Entwicklungs- und Reformkommission sagte jüngst, dass in China im vergangenen Jahr 7 GW an Solarkapazitäten installiert wurden, weitere 10 GW sollen es in diesem Jahr werden. Dies und die Aussicht auf eine wachsende Nachfrage in unterentwickelten Märkten beflügelt derzeit die Phantasie der Investoren. Diese hoffen, dass die Hersteller in diesem Jahr wieder in die Gewinnzone zurückkehren können, auch wenn diese Hoffnung sich durchaus als verfrüht erweisen könnte.
Die anhaltend hohen Überkapazitäten im Sektor sind dabei die Hauptgründe für die notwendige Skepsis. Viele Hersteller haben ihre Produktion zurückgefahren und hoffen so über die Phase der extrem geringen Preise hinwegzukommen. Eine Chance für die in den USA gelisteten Hersteller ist aber auch die angepeilte Konsolidierung des Sektors, welche die chinesische Regierung anstrebt. Es steht zu erwarten, dass vor allem die in den USA gelisteten Hersteller zu den Profiteuren gehören werden.
Yingli Green Energy stiegen gestern um 8,8 Prozent auf 2,84 USD, Trina Solar stiegen um 10,4 Prozent auf 5,20 USD, Suntech Power verbesserten sich um 12,2 Prozent auf 1,66 USD, LDK Solar kletterten um 8,4 Prozent auf 2,06 USD. ReneSola stiegen um 5,0 Prozent auf 1,89 USD, Canadian Solar legten um 1,1 Prozent auf 3,70 USD zu, JinkoSolar gewannen 6,0 Prozent auf 7,05 USD zu, JA Solar stiegen um 6,9 Prozent auf 5,15 USD und China Sunergy legten um 4,7 Prozent auf 1,57 USD zu
: Solarstrom soll in China mehr als verdoppelt ..
Das energiehungrige China will seine Solarstromkapazitäten in diesem Jahr mehr als verdoppeln. Das kündigte die Regierung heute auf ihrer Website an. Mit dem geplanten Ausbau will das Land auch seine bisher exportorientierte Solarbranche unterstützen. Chinesische Solarfirmen setzen ihrer Konkurrenz aus den USA und Europa mit Kampfpreisen schwer zu.
Die US-Handelskommission legte deshalb gepfefferte Zölle auf Solartechniken aus der Volksrepublik fest. In anderen Ländern wie Deutschland leidet die Branche an Überkapazitäten, da die Regierungen ihre Förderungen zurückfahren.
In den USA gelistete chinesische Solarfirmen profitierten von der Ankündigung. Die Aktien von Trina Solar kletterten um zwölf Prozent, JA Solar um zehn Prozent, Yingly Green Energy um acht und JinkoSolar um sechs Prozent nach oben.
@ Beautyboy: Einstieg lohnt sich mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit... Geht langsam los, schau dir die aggressiven Chartverläufe an, durchaus möglich ganz schnell wieder alte Höhen zu erreichen. No risk no fun!
: What Does 2013 Have In Store For The Solar Sector?
Last year was a challenging year, to say the least, for the solar sector. The chronic oversupply of solar panels caused prices to decline sharply through the year, eroding profit margins across the industry. Demand in key markets like Europe also remained subdued owing to the weak economy and a scaling back of government incentives.
This prompted solar firms to scout around for opportunities in new and under-penetrated solar markets to drive volume growth. The gloomy market conditions also saw governments standing up to protect their domestic solar industries from low cost imports, resulting in a trade war of sorts in the international solar market. Here we provide a brief overview of some of the important trends that influenced solar companies in 2012 and how they are likely to impact these firms in 2013.
Outlook For Panel Prices: Panel prices declined by as much as 30% through 2012 due to excess inventory available in the market and a decline in manufacturing costs. We believe that prices could extend their decline into 2013 as well given the huge supply-demand imbalance in the industry (global demand is estimated to be around 30 GW while Chinese manufacturing capacity alone is around 50 GW). However, if there are mergers and acquisitions or additional bankruptcies within the industry, we could see fewer, larger solar firms with better pricing power.
The solar market has become increasingly commoditized and a key differentiating factor is likely to be technology. Manufacturers like SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR), which offer high efficiency modules, will be able to charge premium prices for their products.
Narrowing Gap Between Thin-Film And Silicon Based Panels: The price difference between thin film modules and polycrystalline panels continues to narrow due to stiff competition among Chinese polycrystalline panel manufacturers and declining prices of polysilicon, a key raw material used to manufacture polycrystalline panels. The selling prices for polycrystalline modules has declined by over 30% to under 0.8 euro ($1.05) in Germany while prices for Cadmium Telluride based thin-film panels has declined around 20% to 0.6 euro ($0.79). In markets like China, the prices of silicon-based panels are almost at par with thin-film panels. (PV Module Price Index, PV Magazine) If polycrystalline panel prices continue to fall, thin-film panel manufacturers like First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) will find it increasingly difficult to sell their lower efficiency panels to the rooftop market.
Europe has been a driving force in the global solar sector, thanks to generous government subsidies which have helped boost solar installations. In 2011, the region accounted for almost two-thirds of new global solar installations (totaling around 18.5 GW). However, the market has witnessed setbacks due to the sovereign debt crisis and a scaling back of subsidies in markets like Germany and Spain. In response to weaker demand, solar firms began scaling back on European operations. For instance, First Solar, the world’s largest thin-film manufacturer, announced plans to close its German manufacturing operations.
This year we are likely to see solar firms focus on sustainable solar markets where solar power is able to compete with traditional sources of electricity without banking heavily on subsidies. These regions include India, South Africa, and the Middle East where sunshine is abundant and electricity prices are relatively high, allowing solar power to reach grid parity sooner. Demand from these markets tends to be more stable and face fewer regulatory risks. Other markets that offer promise include Japan, where the government is planning to phase out nuclear power. The Japanese government is providing feed-in-tariffs, which are among the highest in the world, to promote solar power installations. China is also likely to see growth in demand for solar panels as the country has been boosting subsidies to meet its goal of 21 GW of installed capacity by 2015.
The past year has seen over 100 solar companies exit the industry, and we are likely to see more failures this year given the excess capacity, steep price cuts and negative margins that have taken a toll on balance sheets across the industry. The Chinese solar industry in particular looks ripe for consolidation as it holds as much as 50 GW of annual manufacturing capacity. The Chinese government is also likely to support the buyout of smaller, weaker firms by larger players. Earlier in December 2012, the government took a tough stand on failing solar firms, indicating that it would stop providing financial support and would also prevent provincial governments from doing so. (See Also: Who Are The Potential Winners And Losers As China Pushes For Solar Reforms?) Among the Chinese solar firms that we cover, we believe that Yingli Green Energy and Trina Solar are in a relatively good position to acquire weaker firms thanks to their large scale and comparatively strong financial position.
The weak industry conditions saw governments in Europe and North America standing up to protect their domestic solar industries from cheap Chinese imports. Late last year, the U.S. government completed its investigation into the import of Chinese solar products, imposing anti-dumping and countervailing duties of between 24% and 250% on Chinese solar products. (See Also: US Finalizes Tariffs On Chinese Solar Firms, But Benefits For American Firms Dubious) While these tariffs are quite high, they apply only to modules that house solar cells manufactured in China, leaving a potential loophole that would allow Chinese firms to source their cells from abroad and circumvent tariffs.
Last September, the European Union also initiated an investigation into Chinese solar imports in what is seen as the largest anti-dumping probe ever carried out by the Union. (See: Suntech Power Faces The Heat From EU Anti-Dumping Investigation) The investigation is likely to be completed by the end of this year. An imposition of duties is likely to have severe consequences for Chinese firms given that Europe is the largest market for the Chinese solar industry. In 2011, Europe accounted for 80% (around $26 billion) of Chinese solar exports .
In retaliation, the Chinese government launched investigations into dumping of polysilicon into the Chinese market by U.S. and European manufacturers. Although China has been building domestic polysilicon manufacturing capacity, the local product is still lacking in terms of quality and many panel manufacturers such as Yingli Green Energy continue to rely on imports. Any potential tariffs on polysilicon imports could drive up the cost base and impact the profitability of these companies.
It is almost a slam dunk that Yingli Green has become the largest PV module supplier in 2013. News that the company revised up its shipment guidance for the fourth quarter and full-year followed a trend in each quarter of 2012 that it was out-selling Suntech, which had been the leading supplier since 2010.
In some respects it is hard to believe that in 2004 Yingli shipped a mere 4.7MW of modules as it started ramping up its first manufacturing facility. Arguably, it was not until 2008 that the company reached any meaningful shipment levels (281.5MW) and really took off from there.
What is remarkable is that each year after 2008, Yingli has made quantum leaps in its shipments, despite increased competition, the financial crisis and two years of massive industry overcapacity. Other than Jinko Solar’s rapid assent in shipments in 2010 and 2011 (coming from a very low base) no other module manufacturer has built and maintained such momentum.
What is also remarkable is that Yingli was not a remarkable company. Its vanilla modules were like many, simply seen as being in the mid-range, offering no high-performance product or unique features of any description.
The company, like the majority of suppliers, was focused on the residential market in the key markets of Europe and, more specifically, Germany for many years.
However, the boom in residential installations in Germany and the emergence of utility and commercial-scale power plants in Italy had a massive impact on Yingli’s mounting annual shipment levels. As a percentage of revenue, module sales in Germany accounted for over 60% of its business in 2009 and above 50% through 2011; focusing on the sweet spot of the industry proved to be an important strategy.
Football is the biggest attended and viewed sport in Europe and proved to be a key marketing tool for many module manufacturers, especially in supporting football teams in Germany. Even SunPower got into the act and there was a time when it seemed there was an intensive race of its own for solar companies to dominate club sponsorship at any cost.
The one-upmanship peaked with none other than Yingli Green being the major sponsor of the World Cup in South Africa in 2010. Time and time again in quarterly conference calls, Yingli’s management have highlighted the importance of the branding success sponsorship has made to its sales success. Yingli has become one of the most widely identified suppliers – in a short number of years, yet at a time of an overcrowded market.
With emphasis on Europe and Germany in particular, another key success strategy for Yingli has been its aggressive pricing. When Germany started cutting its feed-in tariff at 15% rates at a time, Yingli was already prepared and pre-announced to its customers that it would lower prices to retain the ROI rates end-users had become accustomed to. More often than not it was Yingli that led the price declines ahead of its rivals, capturing orders ahead of the curve and FiT cuts. Many rivals were caught off guard or simply held out to see how FiT cuts would impact demand.
Yingli has also been aggressive in its manufacturing cost reduction strategies over the years, becoming one of the lowest cost producers in the industry. Combining large-scale and constantly improved module efficiencies has also proved to be a successful strategy.
As the US market has picked up speed over the last few years, Yingli Green has emerged as a major supplier to that market. Yet instead of rushing to sign up countless distributors across the vast country, Yingli focused attention on servicing a smaller number of customers that had or were in the process of gaining strong market share in the best regional markets such as California.
The best example of this is SolarCity and the fact that Yingli is its major module supplier. Only recently, SolarCity said that it expects its PV installations to increase by 60% in 2013. Needless to say that Yingli would seem to have picked one of the winners in the US market.
However, it’s not all about picking winners. From conversations with many distributors and installers over the years, one common theme is the praise heaped upon Yingli. A key strategy would seem to be that customers have been consistently impressed with the service and support Yingli offers. When the industry suffered supply shortages or a rush in demand, Yingli was often praised by customers for not letting them down.
The tough part here is whether Yingli can now retain its new found leadership position and carve out an even bigger slice of the market for itself. Certainly, Yingli is currently on a roll and in general terms there are only a few companies that have a chance in keeping up with it but few in 2013 able to surpass it.
Recently (Digital magazine Solar Business Focus, start on page 42) , PV-Tech undertook an analysis of the top five suppliers’ R&D spending habits. The reason for this is that R&D spending provides insight into the future capability of companies to remain competitive. Though a risky exercise it was startling to see how aggressive Yingli Green has been in focusing both financial and human resources on R&D. Although 2012 figures will not be out until after the first quarter the trend levels shown in charts suggests that Yingli will be probably remain a leading R&D investor in 2013.
Continued success with improving its PANDA cell technology and projects that support lower cost manufacturing have both become ingrained in its operations.
Its activities as a key supplier to China’s Golden Sun programme and expected rapid advance in the downstream market ahead of many of its rivals suggest the momentum will continue into 2014. After that it’s anyone’s guess if Yingli can retain the leadership position in 2015.
As can sometimes be the case, it is not always a question of another company beating another but a case of a company beating itself by failing to make the right decisions or having other internal problems that forces it to take an ‘eye off the ball’ and lose market position.
With Yingli entrenched in football, don’t count on the company not doing exactly that.