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Der USA Bären-Thread

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neuester Beitrag: 27.03.15 21:13
eröffnet am: 20.02.07 18:45 von: Anti Lemmin. Anzahl Beiträge: 115590
neuester Beitrag: 27.03.15 21:13 von: Anti Lemmin. Leser gesamt: 9263193
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39884 Postings, 3978 Tage Anti LemmingDer USA Bären-Thread

 
  
    #1
420
20.02.07 18:45
Dies ist ein Thread für mittelfristig orientierte Bären (keine Daytrader), die im Laufe dieses Jahres mit einem stärkeren Rückgang der US-Indizes rechnen - u. a. auf Grund folgender Fundamental-Faktoren:





1.  Zunehmende Probleme im US-Housing-Markt wegen Überkapazitäten, fallender Preise,
    rückläufiger Verkaufszahlen und fauler Hypotheken, vor allem im Subprime-Sektor

2.  Auf Grund dessen mögliche Banken-, Junkbond- und/oder Hedgefonds-Krise
    (HSBC warnte bereits)

3.  Überschuldung der USA im Inland (negative Sparquote, Haushaltsdefizit)
    und im Ausland (Handelsdefizit)

4.  Möglicher weiterer Wertverlust des Dollars zum Euro (zurzeit bereits über 1,30)

5.  Anziehende Inflation wegen Überschuldung und unkontrollierten Geldmengenwachstums

6.  Weitere Zinserhöhungen der Fed zur Inflationsbekämpfung

7.  Rückgang des US-Konsumentenvertrauens und weniger Konsum wegen der
    Liquiditätsrückgänge und drückender Housing-Schulden

8.  Rückabwicklung von Yen-Carry-Trades, weil Japan die Zinsen erhöht
    -> Ende der "globalen Hyperliquidität"

9.  Probleme im Irak, wachsende Kriegsgefahr in Iran/Nahost, Ölpreis-Anstieg

10. Terrorgefahr

11. Überbewertung der US-Aktien (das DOW-JONES KGV für 2006 liegt bei 24,25,
    das des SP-500 bei 19)

12. Aktien-Hausse der letzten vier Jahre verlief ohne nennenswerte Korrekturen
    (untypisch)





Dieser Thread soll meinen inzwischen leider teilweise gelöschten Doomsday-Bären-Thread ersetzen. Außerdem möchte ich in diesem Eingangsposting deutlich machen, dass der Fokus auf USA liegt (der DAX spielt nur am Rande eine Rolle, da die wirtschaftliche Lage hier zu Lande besser ist).

Ich wünsch mir in diesem Thread eine faire, offene und vor allem sachliche Diskussion, möglichst wenig persönliche Querelen, Beleidigungen und sinnlose Hahnenkämpfe. Wer notorisch stört und Unfrieden stiftet oder rassistische Sprüche ablässt, kommt auf die Ignore-Liste (was weitere Postings hier verhindert).
 
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115564 Postings ausgeblendet.

7741 Postings, 3081 Tage StöffenQuizfrage

 
  
    #115566
3
25.03.15 18:01

Wer bei Tiefstkursen zur Vorsicht mahnt und erst bei Höchstständen a la DAX 12000 meint, die langfristigen Qualitäten der Aktie entdecken zu können, der beweist eigentlich nur was?

Bitte hier den nachfolgend aufgeführten richtigen Lösungsansatz ankreuzen

a) Inkontinenz
B) Inkompetenz
C) Interferenz
D) Interlübke

Ist schon recht beeinduckend, wie sich all die Börsenschreiberlinge Tag für Tag abmühen, um dem genehmen Publikum den von den Zentralbanken angerichteten Salat mal so richtig schmackhaft zu machen. Das Dressing wirkt dabei allerdings oftmals ein wenig fad, aber auch nicht jeder Anleger ist eben ein Gourmet.
-----------
Bubbles are normal and non-bubble times are depressions!

39884 Postings, 3978 Tage Anti LemmingE) Impertinenz

 
  
    #115567
2
25.03.15 18:22

39884 Postings, 3978 Tage Anti LemmingFed-Gequatsche ist wieder ausgepreist

 
  
    #115568
3
25.03.15 18:50
Es war so ein sanfter, schöner, einlullender Wortregen. Die Fed hatte letzten Mittwoch in ihrem Sitzungs-Statement "geduldig" mit "nicht in Eile" ersetzt. Bei so viel Milde von Mutti schoß der DOW raketenförmig um 450 Punkte nach oben (grüne Blase, hier SPX). Denn das Wort "geduldig" wurde nicht einfach - wie der Markt es befürchtet hatte - aus dem Wortlaut gestrichen. Nein, es wurde durch ein aussagelogisch ähnliches, aber vielleicht geringfügig weniger falkisches Wort ersetzt. Wenn das kein Rallyegrund war.

Die Rallye passte auch wunderbar zum Quadrupel-Witching am Freitag.

Heute indes hat der Markt das ganze hirnlose Gequatsche wieder ausgepreist. Gründe brauchte es dafür nicht, weil es zuvor auch keine triftigen Gründe für den Anstieg gegeben hatte - außer halt Yellens mütterlich-besorgtem Wortregen, flankiert von einer Kaltluftfront desaströser Makrozahlen.  
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39884 Postings, 3978 Tage Anti LemmingKorrektur

 
  
    #115569
25.03.15 18:52
vielleicht geringfügig weniger dovishes Wort....

dovish = täubisch = nicht zu Zinserhöhung neigend  

39884 Postings, 3978 Tage Anti LemmingInvestitionszurückhaltung kündet von schwachem 1.Q

 
  
    #115570
2
25.03.15 18:59
www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/25/...sspending-idUSKBN0ML1AJ20150325

Weak U.S. business spending data points to tepid first quarter growth

(Reuters) - U.S. business investment spending plans fell for a sixth straight month in February, likely weighed down by a strong dollar and weak global demand, leading economists to further lower their first-quarter growth estimates.

The Commerce Department's durable goods report on Wednesday was the latest data to suggest economic growth braked sharply early in the year, in part due to bad weather and a now-settled labor dispute at the country's busy West Coast ports.

While economists largely view the slowdown in activity as temporary [A.L.: wie immer...] softer growth could prompt the Federal Reserve to delay raising interest rates until later in the year.

"Today's report provides strong evidence that the manufacturing sector is feeling some considerable heat from the stronger dollar," said Anthony Karydakis, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak in New York.

The Commerce Department said non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 1.4 percent last month after a downwardly revised 0.1 percent dip in January. The so-called core capital goods orders were previously reported to have increased 0.5 percent in January. They last rose in August.

...Business spending on capital goods has been hurt by a strong dollar, which has cut into the overseas profits of multinational companies. Lower crude prices also have acted as a drag, forcing oil firms to either delay or cut back on investment projects....

(weiter im Text folgen Gewinnwarnungen exportlastiger US-Firmen...)
 

34990 Postings, 5630 Tage KickyOil futures rally past $49 on Middle East turmoil

 
  
    #115571
25.03.15 19:44
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/...on-middle-east-turmoil-2015-03-25

Oil futures soared past $49 a barrel, with turmoil in Yemen raising concerns over crude supplies in the Middle East. The news, combined with a weaker U.S. dollar, offset earlier pressure from a U.S. government report that revealed that crude supplies rose for an 11th week in a row. Yemen's president fled the southern city of Aden as militants drew closer, according to news reports. The Yemen situation threatens the stability of the oil chokepoint at Bab el-Mandeb Strait,....

da freuen sich einige weil die Ölzufuhr vielleicht gefährdet wird  

39884 Postings, 3978 Tage Anti LemmingChart: US-Marktkapitalisierung relativ zum US-BIP

 
  
    #115572
1
25.03.15 20:39
Wir stehen bereits höher als am 2007-Top und haben eine Übertreibung nach oben um fast zwei Standardabweichungen.  
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39884 Postings, 3978 Tage Anti LemmingUS-Indizes enden deutlich im Minus

 
  
    #115573
1
25.03.15 21:05
04:03 Nasdaq suffers biggest percent drop in 11 months MarketWatch
04:02 S&P 500 finishes down nearly 1.5% MarketWatch
04:01 Dow ends down 291 points, or 1.6%, according to early data
 
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39884 Postings, 3978 Tage Anti LemmingTrendumkehr bei US-Biotech-Aktien

 
  
    #115574
1
25.03.15 22:16
 
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34990 Postings, 5630 Tage KickyGoldman trims U.S. first quarter GDP view to 1.8%

 
  
    #115575
1
25.03.15 22:32
from 2,0% NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs economist Kris Dawson said on Wednesday he scaled back his view of U.S. growth in the first quarter, following an unexpectedly weak report on domestic durable goods orders in February.  http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...trims-u-first-quarter-162638480.html  

34990 Postings, 5630 Tage KickyWeak U.S. business spending data tepid Q1 growth

 
  
    #115576
3
25.03.15 22:37
* Durable goods orders drop 1.4 percent in February

* Core capital goods orders fall 1.4 percent

* January core capital goods orders revised to show decline

* Core capital goods shipments up; January data revised down
.....
Shipments of core capital goods, which are used to calculate equipment spending in the government's gross domestic product measurement, rose 0.2 percent last month after slipping by a revised 0.4 percent in January. They were previously reported to have gained 0.1 percent in January.

That downward revision, together with a modest rise in inventories, prompted JPMorgan to slash its first-quarter growth estimate by half a percentage point to a 1.5 percent annual rate. Morgan Stanley cut its Q1 GDP forecast to a 0.9 percent rate from 1.2 percent.The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank's model forecasts a growth pace of only 0.3 percent for this quarter. The economy expanded at a 2.2 percent rate in the fourth quarter.
.....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...usiness-spending-data-132005025.html  

34990 Postings, 5630 Tage KickyUSA is wrong to obstruct China s AIIB

 
  
    #115577
2
25.03.15 22:49
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/...e-bank-bridge-not-far-enough

AMERICA says it welcomes China?s ascent to great-power status, so long as the Chinese respect international norms and play a proper part in the multilateral system. China suspects that, in practice, America tries to hem it in whenever it does anything on the world stage. In the case of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), America seems to be confirming China?s darkest fears: it has adopted a policy of containment that is wrong in principle and has failed in practice.

Flush with the world?s largest foreign-exchange reserves, China plans a new bank to help match Asia?s vast savings with its even vaster need for new bridges, roads and other necessities of development. America dislikes the idea because it thinks the bank will not abide by high standards of creditworthiness and transparency; it also fears the institution will be a vehicle for Chinese influence. Though the Americans say they have not lobbied against the bank, they have put pressure on allies not to join it. When Britain became the first country outside Asia to apply for membership, an American official harrumphed about its trend towards ?constant accommodation? of China. That admonition did not stop Germany, France and Italy declaring this week that they too wanted to be founding members. Others may follow.......


http://www.economist.com/news/asia/...rican-allies-infrastructure-gap
....This month first Britain and then France, Germany and Italy said they hoped to join the bank as founding shareholders.China said other European countries such as Luxembourg and Switzerland are thinking of joining the queue. Yet America has been sceptical about the AIIB. Its officials claim they have not ?lobbied against? it, but merely stressed how important it is that it abide by international standards of transparency, creditworthiness, environmental sustainability, and so on.

America?s reservations were certainly taken by officials in the region, however, as admonitions to steer clear of the AIIB. They were enough, at first, to discourage some of its closest Asian allies from joining the initial 21 founding members. Australia, Japan and South Korea all stayed out?though other staunch American friends such as New Zealand, Singapore and Thailand signed up. The joiners argue that China was going to launch the AIIB anyway; better to be on the inside influencing its governance. The Europeans? accession is likely to encourage changes of heart among the refuseniks. Australia has already indicated it is reconsidering; South Korea seems almost certain to join......  

7741 Postings, 3081 Tage StöffenTscha AL

 
  
    #115578
2
26.03.15 10:39
da lagst du wohl schon richtig, als du vor einigen Tagen hier geschrieben hast, dass der DAX seine "Exportvorteile" exakt in dem Moment wieder auspreisen dürfte, wenn entgegen der Konsenserwartung bzgl. einer anstehenden Zinswende in den USA der Euro gegenüber dem US-Dollar wieder an Land gewinnt. An den Devisenmärkten spielt eben die Musike, nach denen der DAX tanzt.
-----------
Bubbles are normal and non-bubble times are depressions!
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4419 Postings, 2590 Tage PalaimonCelebrating Housing Market's Recovery Is a Mistake

 
  
    #115579
2
26.03.15 20:04
sagt Shah Gilani

Past and present manipulations must be continued to prevent collapse, but they won't help economic growth in the United States as they did until 2000. Instead they'll only act as a headwind from time to time.
The Housing
New home sales looked robust in February, but existing home sales rose a scant 1.2%. Here's the truth about the housing market's "recovery."
-----------
An der Börse ist alles möglich, auch das Gegenteil.  
André Kostolany

MfG
Palaimon

4419 Postings, 2590 Tage PalaimonOil Jumps as Yemen Burns

 
  
    #115580
3
26.03.15 20:10

39884 Postings, 3978 Tage Anti LemmingAbstieg der US-Mittelklasse

 
  
    #115581
1
26.03.15 22:17
Nur noch die Hälfte hat Ersparnisse für Notfälle, die anderen leben von der Hand in den Mund...

---------------------

http://streettalklive.com/index.php/...treets-big-scam-bottom-80.html

"Mo Money" Or No Money

In September of last year, I discussed the Federal Reserve's 2013 Survey of household finances which showed a shocking decline in the median value of net worth of families across all age brackets.

While the mainstream media continues to tout that the economy is on the mend, real (inflation-adjusted) median net worth suggests that this is not the case overall.


...The findings are strikingly similar to the U.S. Federal Reserve survey from last year.

   "'Savings are depleted for many households after the recession,' it found. Among those who had savings prior to 2008, 57% said they'd used up some or all of their savings in the Great Recession and its aftermath. What's more, only 39% of respondents reported having a 'rainy day' fund adequate to cover three months of expenses and only 48% of respondents said that they could not completely cover a hypothetical emergency expense costing $400 without selling something or borrowing money."

In other words, the rich have gotten richer as rising asset prices have been a major benefit to stock-option based executives who have raked in billions. However, for the majority of the working class, it has remained primarily a struggle to survive much less actually save.  
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39884 Postings, 3978 Tage Anti LemmingLangzeitbär Dirk Müller wird bullisch

 
  
    #115582
1
26.03.15 22:20
- ein weiteres Top-Signal...

www.handelsblatt.com/video/finanzen/...orge-ohne-aktien/11559218.html

Die Anliehe eines guten Unternehmens wirft oft nur eine minimale Rendite ab. Die Aktie des selben Konzerns hingegen mittelfristig deutlich mehr. Dirk Müller rät deshalb trotz "Dax 12.000" zu Investitionen in den Markt.
 

39884 Postings, 3978 Tage Anti LemmingDirk Müller wirkt in dem Video volltrunken

 
  
    #115583
2
26.03.15 22:23
(Video im Link des letzten Postings)

Anders als durch Schönsaufen kann man dem "Markt" offenbar nichts Bullisches mehr abgewinnen ;-)  

11229 Postings, 4881 Tage lehnaDirk Müller...

 
  
    #115584
1
26.03.15 22:40
ist auch in meinen Augen ein aalglatter schleimiger Talkshow Sülzer.
Glaub, der würde für ein bisschen Applaus auch seine Großmutter versteigern.
Allerdings bleib ich dabei, der Markt ist robust, obwohl er sich mächtig nach oben abgesondert hat. Natürlich steigt damit die Lust auf Gewinnmitnahmen.
Allerdings standen auch heut wieder sofort Käufer Gewehr bei Fuss. Der Markt bleibt somit "bärenstark"...




 

4419 Postings, 2590 Tage PalaimonHmmm...

 
  
    #115585
3
26.03.15 22:45
-----------
An der Börse ist alles möglich, auch das Gegenteil.  
André Kostolany

MfG
Palaimon
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34990 Postings, 5630 Tage KickyAuch Südkorea tritt AIIB bei

 
  
    #115586
3
27.03.15 12:34
Mit Südkorea schliesst sich ein weiterer amerikanischer Verbündeter der von China initiierten neuen Entwicklungsbank in Asien an. Die Regierung in Seoul verspricht sich davon mehr Einfluss in der Region, aber auch mehr Aufträge für koreanische Unternehmen.
....
Für Südkorea war die Entscheidung schwierig, weil es zwischen den wichtigen wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen zu China und der sicherheitspolitischen Bindung an Amerika laviert. Das Land verhandelt seit 2012 mit China über ein Freihandelsabkommen, das in den kommenden Monaten abgeschlossen werden soll.

Mit dem Beitritt Südkoreas entwickelt sich für China die Gründung der Asiatischen Infrastruktur- und Investitionsbank (AIIB) zunehmend zu einem diplomatischen Erfolg im Wettstreit mit den Vereinigten Staaten um Einfluss in der Region. Zuvor hatten schon viele europäische Länder erklärt, darunter die Schweiz, sich der neuen Institution anschliessen zu wollen. Unter den amerikanischen Verbündeten in Asien hält sich vor allem Japan abseits.
......
Nach japanischen Medienberichten hat die Regierung in Tokio die Entscheidung über einen Beitritt zur AIIB auf den Sommer vertagt. Die Vereinigten Staaten stehen der Entwicklungsbank skeptisch gegenüber und werben für eine Zusammenarbeit mit der amerikanisch dominierten Weltbank und der alteingesessenen asiatischen Entwicklungsbank ADB, in der Amerika und Japan weitgehend das Sagen haben. Ende März endet die von China gesetzte Frist, um noch Gründungsmitglied der Bank werden zu können.
http://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/...zwischen-china-und-den-usa-1.18511354  

34990 Postings, 5630 Tage KickyStaatsanleihen müssen mit Kapital hinterlegt sein

 
  
    #115587
3
27.03.15 12:36
so Jens Weidmann
http://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/...it-kapital-hinterlegt-sein-1.18511398

(Reuters) Bundesbank-Chef Jens Weidmann macht sich für eine Neufassung der Kapitalvorschriften bei Staatsanleihen stark und kann sich auch eine europäische Lösung dieser Frage vorstellen. «Staatsanleihen müssen mit Kapital hinterlegt sein, und für Engagements in ein einzelnes Land muss es eine Obergrenze geben, wie es auch der Fall ist bei jedem privaten Schuldner», sagte Weidmann am Freitag auf einer Finanzkonferenz in Frankfurt. Er begrüsse, dass über das Thema nun im Basler Ausschuss diskutiert werde. «Falls diese Diskussionen aber zu keiner Vereinbarung führen, müssen wir mit einer europäischen Lösung voranschreiten», sagte der Bundesbankpräsident.

Staatsanleihen werden bis jetzt als risikofrei bewertet. Banken müssen daher für ihr Engagement in solche Titel kein Kapital hinterlegen. Wegen der Euro-Schuldenkrise da beispielsweise Länder wie Griechenland von ihren EU-Partnern nur mit Milliarden vor dem finanziellen Kollaps gerettet wurden.gibt es aber zunehmend Kritik an dieser Sichtweise....  

34990 Postings, 5630 Tage KickyHans Werner Sinn: Europe s Easy-Money Endgame

 
  
    #115588
2
27.03.15 18:48
bei project-syndicate
MUNICH ? The euro has brought a balance-of-payments crisis to Europe, just as the gold standard did in the 1920s. In fact, there is only one difference between the two episodes: During today?s crisis, huge international rescue packages have been available.

These rescue packages have relieved the eurozone?s financial distress, but at a high cost. Not only have they enabled investors to avoid paying for their poor decisions; they have also given overpriced southern European countries the opportunity to defer real depreciation in the form of a reduction of relative prices of goods. This is necessary to restore the competitiveness that was destroyed in the euro?s initial years, when it caused excessive inflation.

Indeed, for countries like Greece, Portugal, or Spain, regaining competitiveness would require them to lower the prices of their own products relative to the rest of the eurozone by about 30%, compared to the beginning of the crisis. Italy probably needs to reduce its relative prices by 10-15%. But Portugal and Italy have so far failed to deliver any such ?real depreciation,? while relative prices in Greece and Spain have fallen by only 8% and 6%, respectively.

Revealingly, of all the crisis countries, only Ireland managed to turn the corner. The reason is obvious: its bubble already burst at the end of 2006, before any rescue funds were available.
......
In relative terms, Greece received most of Europe?s bailout money and showed the largest increase in unemployment. The official loans granted to the country by the European Central Bank and the international community have increased more than sixfold during the past five years, from ?53 billion ($58 billion) in February 2010 to ?324 billion, or 181% of GDP, now. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate has more than doubled, from 11% to 26%.

There are four possible economic and policy responses to this state of affairs. First, Europe could become a transfer union, with the north giving more and more credit to the south and later waiving it. Second, the south can deflate. Third, the north can inflate. And, fourth, countries that are no longer competitive can exit Europe?s monetary union and depreciate their new currency.

The ECB?s stated goal is to reflate the eurozone, thereby reducing the euro?s external value, by purchasing more than ?1.1 trillion worth of assets. According to ECB President Mario Draghi, the inflation rate, which currently stands at just below 0%, is to be raised to an average of just below 2%.

This would offer southern European countries a way out of their competitiveness trap, because if prices remained unchanged in the south, while the northern countries inflated, the southern countries could gradually reduce their goods? relative prices without feeling too much pain. Of course, in that case the north needs to inflate faster than by just 2%.

If, say, southern Europe kept its inflation rate at 0% and France inflated at a rate of 1%, Germany would have to inflate by a good 4%, and the rest of the eurozone at 2% annually, to reach a eurozone average of slightly less than 2%. This pattern would have to continue for about ten years to bring the eurozone back into balance. At that point, Germany?s price level would be about 50% higher than it is today.

I do expect QE to bring about some inflation. Given that an exchange rate is the relative price of a currency, as more euros come into circulation, their value has to fall substantially to establish a new equilibrium in the currency market. Experience with similar programs in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan has shown that QE unleashes powerful forces of depreciation. QE in the eurozone will thus bring about the inflation that Draghi wants via higher import and export prices. Whether this effect will be sufficient to revitalize southern Europe remains to be seen.

There is a risk that Japan, China, and the US will not sit on their hands while the euro loses value, with the world possibly even sliding into a currency war. Moreover, the southern EU countries, instead of leaving prices unchanged, could abandon austerity and issue an ever greater volume of new bonds to stimulate the economy. Competitiveness gains and rebalancing would fail to materialize, and, after an initial flash in the pan, the eurozone would return to permanent crisis. The euro, finally and fully discredited, would then meet a very messy end.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/...03#oJuxUvRQJYrYLlor.99

 

39884 Postings, 3978 Tage Anti LemmingBIP-Beitrag v. US-Housing:tiefster Stand seit 2.WK

 
  
    #115589
1
27.03.15 20:07
www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-27/...ution-us-gdp-lowest-post-war-era

The contribution of housing to US GDP continues to run at some of the lowest levels since the end of World War II. New construction of single- and multi-family homes, renovations, broker fees and the like still only make up a bit more than 3% of current GDP, well below the post-war average of 4.7%. Not only has the level of lift from housing come in low, but it has bounced out of the last official recession slowly, too. Housing on average has contributed a half a percentage point to GDP a year after the end of every post-war US recession. This time around, housing added only 7 bp. And the contribution of housing in the second and third years after the recent recession also has fallen well below post-war averages.
 
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39884 Postings, 3978 Tage Anti LemmingMüssen US-Zinsen "ewig" bei Null bleiben...

 
  
    #115590
1
27.03.15 21:13
...weil die US-Wirtschaft substanziell nicht mehr genug hergibt? Diese Befürchtung äußert Alasdair Macleod, ein Goldbulle, unten.

Die Crux der Fed: Bleiben US-Leitzinsenerhöhungen auch weiterhin aus (den nächsten Aufschub der eigentlich für Sommer erwarteten Erhöhung hat Yellen ja schon latent vorangekündigt), dann könnte die Finanzwelt in nicht allzu ferner Zukunft das Vertrauen in den US-Dollar, US-Staatsanleihen und den ganzen Erholungs-Hokuspokus verlieren.

Es ist daher denkbar, dass die Fed - nur um den schönen Schein zu wahren - trotz schwacher Wirtschaft im Sommer eine leichte Zinserhöhung vornimmt, um Wirtschaftsstärke zumindest vorzugaukeln.

Man kann schönreden, beschwören, tricksen, bereinigen, fälschen, labern. Doch irgendwann wird der Laden den vermeintlichen Machern um die Ohren fliegen: Nicht einmal die "Maestros" an den Notenbanken können die Welt ewig für dumm verkaufen.

-------------------

www.goldmoney.com/research/analysis/...ks-paralysed-at-the-zero-bound

Central banks paralysed at the zero bound
By Alasdair Macleod

Though the Fed would deny it, it is clear from the minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that a rise in interest rates has been put off indefinitely.

The subsequent rally in the price of gold and the sudden fall in the dollar tend to confirm this conclusion.

The Fed Funds Rate, which is the interest rate the Fed targets to set all other rates, has now been less than 0.25% for six and a quarter years, gradually declining from roughly 0.15% to about 0.10% today. It was set at a target range of between zero and 0.25% in December 2008.

According to the Policy Normalisation Principles and Plans issued last September, the FOMC will raise its target range for the Fed Funds Rate "primarily by adjusting the interest rate it pays on excess reserve balances" when the Fed normalises interest rates, "using reverse repurchase agreements to take money out of circulation to the degree necessary". The Fed also intends to reduce its holdings of securities and contract its balance sheet in the longer run.

If normalisation is the result of economic recovery we will be familiar with the playbook. Demand for money in the economy picks up, and instead of pyramiding bank credit on reserves held at the Fed, the Fed feeds back the excess reserves to the banks by selling government securities into the markets. The bear market in government bonds should be manageable because of underlying pension and insurance company demand coupled with a diminishing budget deficit. This is the long-understood theory behind withdrawing from deficit financing.

The reality has been very different as we all know. The Fed has to face the possibility that, for whatever reason, highly suppressed interest rates are not working, and an escape from the zero interest rate bound without economic recovery may have to be contemplated.

However, if the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate in the absence of genuine economic recovery, there will be little or no expansion of bank credit to offset, and commercial banks will want to dump their Treasuries, not buy more from the Fed. There would be no offsets to cushion the unwinding of long bond positions. In other words the effect of even a small rise in the Fed Funds Rate could develop into a self-feeding rise in bond yields and substantial losses for the banks.

This is the context within which we should consider the Fed's decision to back off from raising the Fed Funds Rate mid-year. It leads to the conclusion that if zero interest rates haven't worked for six and a quarter years, monetary policy itself is in a cul-de-sac with no space to turn.
And when we look at Japan and the Eurozone we see similar disappointments over the effectiveness of monetary policy.

Markets are unlikely to wait until the escape from the zero bound is put to the test. Before the investing public becomes aware of the full ramifications of the problem, more prescient bankers and fund managers will reposition their bond holdings, which brings us to gold.

Those of us that follow this market closely know that for the last three years at least Asian demand has led to large shifts of bullion from western capital markets towards Asia. The behaviour of the markets in London and New York already indicate that shortages of physical bullion are a delicate problem, and this is before markets wake up to the growing likelihood that the Fed cannot afford to see interest rates rise.

If interest rates cannot rise, then the dollar itself is ultimately exposed to loss of confidence in the foreign exchanges. The dawning realisation that after recent strength, the dollar is vulnerable after all can be expected to be reflected in a positive sentiment towards gold, which once under way could drive the price up dramatically due to the lack of available bullion.  
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  4 Nutzer wurden vom Verfasser von der Diskussion ausgeschlossen: MADSEB, Galearis, Monti Burns, Rene Dugal