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Der USA Bären-Thread

Seite 1 von 4599
neuester Beitrag: 01.02.15 12:34
eröffnet am: 20.02.07 18:45 von: Anti Lemmin. Anzahl Beiträge: 114966
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39106 Postings, 3924 Tage Anti LemmingDer USA Bären-Thread

 
  
    #1
420
20.02.07 18:45
Dies ist ein Thread für mittelfristig orientierte Bären (keine Daytrader), die im Laufe dieses Jahres mit einem stärkeren Rückgang der US-Indizes rechnen - u. a. auf Grund folgender Fundamental-Faktoren:





1.  Zunehmende Probleme im US-Housing-Markt wegen Überkapazitäten, fallender Preise,
    rückläufiger Verkaufszahlen und fauler Hypotheken, vor allem im Subprime-Sektor

2.  Auf Grund dessen mögliche Banken-, Junkbond- und/oder Hedgefonds-Krise
    (HSBC warnte bereits)

3.  Überschuldung der USA im Inland (negative Sparquote, Haushaltsdefizit)
    und im Ausland (Handelsdefizit)

4.  Möglicher weiterer Wertverlust des Dollars zum Euro (zurzeit bereits über 1,30)

5.  Anziehende Inflation wegen Überschuldung und unkontrollierten Geldmengenwachstums

6.  Weitere Zinserhöhungen der Fed zur Inflationsbekämpfung

7.  Rückgang des US-Konsumentenvertrauens und weniger Konsum wegen der
    Liquiditätsrückgänge und drückender Housing-Schulden

8.  Rückabwicklung von Yen-Carry-Trades, weil Japan die Zinsen erhöht
    -> Ende der "globalen Hyperliquidität"

9.  Probleme im Irak, wachsende Kriegsgefahr in Iran/Nahost, Ölpreis-Anstieg

10. Terrorgefahr

11. Überbewertung der US-Aktien (das DOW-JONES KGV für 2006 liegt bei 24,25,
    das des SP-500 bei 19)

12. Aktien-Hausse der letzten vier Jahre verlief ohne nennenswerte Korrekturen
    (untypisch)





Dieser Thread soll meinen inzwischen leider teilweise gelöschten Doomsday-Bären-Thread ersetzen. Außerdem möchte ich in diesem Eingangsposting deutlich machen, dass der Fokus auf USA liegt (der DAX spielt nur am Rande eine Rolle, da die wirtschaftliche Lage hier zu Lande besser ist).

Ich wünsch mir in diesem Thread eine faire, offene und vor allem sachliche Diskussion, möglichst wenig persönliche Querelen, Beleidigungen und sinnlose Hahnenkämpfe. Wer notorisch stört und Unfrieden stiftet oder rassistische Sprüche ablässt, kommt auf die Ignore-Liste (was weitere Postings hier verhindert).
 
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114940 Postings ausgeblendet.

34150 Postings, 5576 Tage KickyGreek Bond Yields Surge Above 19% After EU Talks

 
  
    #114942
30.01.15 19:10

34150 Postings, 5576 Tage KickyAlaskas Staatsbudget kollabiert

 
  
    #114943
3
30.01.15 19:53
Alaska, once oil-rich, now faces tough decisions on what parts of the state?s budget can be cut, and where it can find other sources of revenue to confront deficits it has never faced before.

The part-time state legislature, whose 2014 session ended in April, had passed a $6.1 billion budget for 2015, but since then a barrel of oil has lost more than half its value. Add to that, Alaska gets 90 percent of its budget from oil taxes. So when the 2015 legislative session began Jan. 27, the state?s budget was $3.5 million short.

With an 80 percent drop in oil revenues since June, Alaska is over a barrel. It has no state sales or income taxes, but it does have a kind of savings account from previous oil revenues, but that may not be enough to make up for the shortfall......

http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/...ax-Revenues.html  

34150 Postings, 5576 Tage KickyRezession im Ölsand-reichen Alberta

 
  
    #114944
3
30.01.15 19:56
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/01/21/...-rich-alberta-may-face-recession/

Schlumberger, the oil services giant in Canada?s west, cut spending dramatically, postponed projects in the region and announced 9,000 layoffs for its worldwide operations. Suncor Energy announced it will cut 1,000 jobs and reduce its budget by $1 billion, and uncertainty in oil markets will delay Canada?s federal budget until at least April. Even Target and Sony were closing stores in Canada.

The effect on the country?s financial sector also was profound. The Toronto Stock exchange plunged, and the Canadian dollar dropped to a six-year low against its US counterpart. As a result, Alberta?s premier, Jim Prentice, conceded that the plunge in oil prices will cut provincial revenues by $7 billion in 2015, meaning his government will be operating at a deficit.......  

39106 Postings, 3924 Tage Anti Lemmingfetter Short-Squeeze in US-Öl

 
  
    #114945
3
30.01.15 20:18
 
Angehängte Grafik:
hc_035.jpg (verkleinert auf 70%) vergrößern
hc_035.jpg

39106 Postings, 3924 Tage Anti LemmingZweiter Chart zu US-Öl (zur Bestätigung)

 
  
    #114946
4
30.01.15 20:32
Für Bären kann der Öl-Anstieg ungemütlich werden, weil dann in USA die gebeutelten Öl- und Energie-Aktien steigen und die Indizes mit hoch reißen.

Gründe für den Anstieg wurden bislang keine genannt.  
Angehängte Grafik:
hc_037.jpg (verkleinert auf 85%) vergrößern
hc_037.jpg

39106 Postings, 3924 Tage Anti LemmingUS-BIP wächst nur noch mit 2,6 % im 4. Q. 2014

 
  
    #114947
1
30.01.15 20:57
U.S. economy moderates to 2.6% growth rate in fourth quarter

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy grew by a 2.6% annual pace in the fourth quarter, slowing from a 5.0% pace in the third quarter, according to a preliminary government estimate released by the Commerce Department Friday. Economists polled by MarketWatch predicted GDP would grow by a seasonally adjusted 3.2%. Consumer spending, which is a main source of economic activity, rose 4.3% following a 3.2% rise in the third quarter. This is the biggest gain since the first quarter of 2006. But growth slowed because of slower business and government spending and higher imports. The PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, fell at a 0.5% annual rate in the October-to-December period, compared to a 1.2% gain in the third quarter. That's the biggest drop since the first quarter of 2009.The core PCE that excludes food and energy, rose at a 1.1% clip, down from 1.4%.
 

4210 Postings, 2011 Tage learnerDer fallende Ölpreis, gepaart mit einem

 
  
    #114948
6
30.01.15 21:35
starken Dollar könnten den Amis nun mehr Probleme machen, als Ihnen lieb ist.

Hier ein Auszug eines Textes von Christoph Stein: "Sanktionen gegen Russland"
Den Link habe ich nicht, aber kann man ja Googeln.

Die Wirkung des Ölpreises auf die USA
In Oil, Ruble and Ideology vom 14.12. 2014 analysiert Sapir die unterschiedlichen Wirkungen des sinkenden Ölpreises auf Russland und die USA. Das Resultat in Kürze: Die russische Wirtschaft profitiert insgesamt vom sinkenden Ölpreis, der USA droht dagegen ernsthaftes Ungemach. Zwar werde, so Sapir, hinter dem sinkenden Ölpreis häufig ein Versuch der USA vermutet, Russland zu destabilisieren. Solch ein Versuch mag stattgefunden haben, aber die Tatsachen seien viel komplexer. Die Schwelle der Wirtschaftlichkeit liege bei 70 USD pro Barrel für Ölsand und bei 65 USD für Schieferöl. Mit einem Ölpreis unterhalb von 60 USD pro Barrel "starten die OPEC-Länder tatsächlich einen Angriff auf die nordamerikanischen Ölindustrie". Außerdem sei es auffällig, dass die großen russischen Ölunternehmen Rosneft und Lukoil sich ziemlich still über die aktuelle Entwicklung der Preise verhielten. Sapir fragt sich "ob es nicht eine stillschweigende Vereinbarung zwischen Saudi-Arabien und Russland gebe, um einen neuen Akteur aus dem Markt für fossile Brennstoffe zu vertreiben oder zumindest in seine Schranken zu verweisen".
Die Investitionskosten im Schieferöl- und Gassektor seien zu 80% bis 90% mit Darlehen finanziert worden. Diese könnten mehr als 300 Milliarden Verbindlichkeiten für amerikanische Banken ausmachen. Diese Schulden verwandeln sich unweigerlich, so Sapir, in "zweifelhafte Kredite" (oder "Non Performing Loans"), wenn man deutlich unter die Gewinnschwelle sinken würde. Aber die Banken hätten, wie üblich, diese Kredite durch die Emission von CDS verbrieft: "Wenn man zu lange bei einem Preis, der zu niedrig ist, stecken bleibt, kann man eine neue Finanzkrise im amerikanischen Bankensystems nicht ausschließen."

Beim Dollar gilt es jetzt nach dem unglaublichen Anstieg die Devisenpaare zu beobachten, ob sich die Entwicklung verändert. Am Beispiel USD/Cad sieht man, dass der aktuelle Kurs nicht weit entfernt von dem Panikhoch in 2008 entfernt ist.


-----------
Glücksbehindernde Überzeugung: "Ich verlange Gerechtigkeit und Fairness!"
Angehängte Grafik:
usd_cad.png (verkleinert auf 28%) vergrößern
usd_cad.png

4210 Postings, 2011 Tage learnerNZD/USD hätte noch reichlich Platz

 
  
    #114949
2
30.01.15 21:37
nach unten. Charttechnisch ist der Aufwärtstrend des NZD gebrochen. Dies spräche allerdings für eine weitere Dollarstärke.
-----------
Glücksbehindernde Überzeugung: "Ich verlange Gerechtigkeit und Fairness!"
Angehängte Grafik:
nzd_usd.png (verkleinert auf 28%) vergrößern
nzd_usd.png

39106 Postings, 3924 Tage Anti LemmingPlosser (Fed) gibt zu bedenken, dass

 
  
    #114950
3
31.01.15 09:48
Zentralbank-Planwirtschaft nicht endlos funktionieren kann, und nennt als Negativbeispiel die Kapitulation der Schweizer Notenbank (SNB) vor den Marktkräften, denen sie sich lange entgegenstemmte.

Plosser rät, die US-Leitzinsen jetzt schon langsam zu erhöhen, ehe der Markt die Fed (wie die SNB) dazu zwingt, was unkontrollierbare Folgen für die Märkte und für die US-Wirtschaft haben könnte.


www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-30/what-happens-when-markets-realize

"We Can't Do This Forever," Fed Admits "Market Will Overwhelm Us"
.
In a somewhat stunning admission of the truth in central planning (that the Swiss just experienced first hand - and perhaps Venezuela has been experiencing for years), The Philly Fed's Charles Plosser explains the following:

"It may work out just fine, but there?s a risk to that strategy, and the risk is that we wait until the point where markets force us to raise rates and then we have to react quickly and aggressively. I believe that if we wait too long, then we run the risk of falling very far behind the curve or disrupting the economy by rapid rate increases.

The history is that monetary policy is not ultimately a very effective tool at solving real economic structural problems. (Sollte sich auch Draghi mal zu Gemüt führen, A.L.). It can try for a while but the problem then is that it?s only temporarily effective, and when you can?t do it anymore you get the explosion yesterday in the Swiss market.

One of the things I?ve tried to argue is look, if we believe that monetary policy is doing what we say it?s doing and depressing real interest rates and goosing the economy and we?re in some sense distorting what might be the normal market outcomes at some point, we?re going to have to stop doing it. At some point the pressure is going to be too great. The market forces are going to overwhelm us. We?re not going to be able to hold the line anymore. And then you get that rapid snapback in premiums as the market realizes that central banks can?t do this forever. And that?s going to cause volatility and disruption.

...I think the jury is still out on the costs. Because the cost I was worried about was the longer-term cost of unraveling all of this. So maybe I was right, maybe I was wrong. That remains to be seen.

I do worry about the longer-term implications for the institution. Part of my criticism has been that we have pushed the boundaries into fiscal rather than monetary policy. That has brought us praise and opprobrium. Perhaps justifiably on both counts. I do wonder as I look down the road five or 10 years, how will that shape the institution? What happens to our independence? What happens to our ability to do things effectively? Given all that we?ve done ? maybe it was all for the best, but even if it was ? are there going to be longer-term ramifications that we may end up regretting later?"
 

2201 Postings, 1891 Tage Sufdlzum Ölpreis:

 
  
    #114951
2
31.01.15 09:55
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/30/...il-idUSKBN0L305Q20150130

The late-session surge was primed by Baker Hughes data showing the number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States fell by 94 - or 7 percent - this week. Earlier gains were fueled by reports of Islamic State militants striking at Kurdish forces southwest of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk.

short squeeeeze  

2201 Postings, 1891 Tage Sufdl2015

 
  
    #114952
1
31.01.15 10:14
lassen wir wohl das Goldilocks-Ponnyranchzeitalter hinter uns.    

39106 Postings, 3924 Tage Anti LemmingDroht US-Rentensparern (IRA) die sukz. Enteignung?

 
  
    #114953
3
31.01.15 11:32
www.sovereignman.com/trends/...low-road-to-ira-nationalization-16041/

Another step down the long, slow road to IRA nationalization

Let?s take a brief walk into financial reality for a moment.

At the time of this writing, the United States government?s official debt is nearly $18.1 trillion.

Now, let?s look at who the biggest owners of that debt are:

1) Taxpayers of the United States.

If you?ve held a job in the Land of the Free, 15.3% of your salary has gone to fund Social Security and Medicare.

Each of these programs holds massive trust funds that are supposed to pay out beneficiaries, both present and future.

Conveniently, the trust funds are required by law to buy US government debt.

And given that every single US taxpayer is an ultimate beneficiary of these trust funds, that ranks the people of the United States as among the biggest holders of US debt.

How sustainable is this? Not very.

The 2014 trustee reports for both Medicare and Social Security indicate that nearly ALL of the trust funds are sliding towards insolvency.

This isn?t some wild conjecture. The people in government who manage these trust funds are flat out telling us that they?re about to go bankrupt.


Let that sink in for a bit? then ask yourself: how long can two insolvent programs continue to be among the largest owners of US government debt?

2) The Federal Reserve

Now that we know Social Security and Medicare cannot continue to buy Treasuries indefinitely, we turn our attention to the Fed, which as of today, holds over $2.4 trillion in US government debt.

The Fed is essentially the lender of first resort to the US government and has singlehandedly managed to mop up the vast majority of government debt over the last several years.

Problem is, the Fed has to print money to do this. And the Fed has created so much money over the last few years that it?s now borderline insolvent.

The Fed?s capital now stands at just 1.27% of its total assets. To be clear, this is a razor thin margin of safety.


No other central bank in the world (except Canada, curiously) would be able to post such a pitiful number and still pretend to be credible.

But make no mistake, there is a level of monetary expansion that?s too far. And the Fed is already getting close to this danger zone.

Bottom line, the Fed is not going to be in a position to write blank checks to the US government indefinitely without becoming insolvent and causing an epic currency crisis.

And when that happens, where else can Uncle Sam go? Who else will buy his debt?

Simple. You.

More specifically, your retirement account.


According to Internal Revenue Service estimates, there?s close to $5 trillion in individual retirement accounts in the Land of the Free.

This is money that taxpayers prudently set aside for retirement, hopefully cognizant that Social Security isn?t going to be there for them.

Devoid of any other easy lender, $5 trillion is far too irresistible for such a heavily indebted government to ignore.


I?ve long warned that the government could easily nationalize a portion of all IRAs.

It would be so simple for them to do? just a single executive order and a couple of phone calls.

They?ll probably wait for some market crash, and then sell it to Americans like this:

?For your own protection, we will henceforth require banks to invest your retirement savings in the safety and the security of US government bonds.?

These bonds, of course, are so safe that they fail to pay an interest rate that even keeps up with inflation, effectively guaranteeing that you?re going to lose money.

It started happening last year.

In his 2014 State of the Union address, President Obama announced his MyRA program.

MyRA is basically an IRA that invests directly in? you guessed it? government bonds.

He pitched it as an easy for Americans to save for retirement ?with no risk of losing what you put in?.

Step two came when both the President and Treasury Secretary embarked on a blitzkrieg-style marketing campaign to pump the program, pledging that they would aggressively push businesses to sign up their employees.

Now comes step three.

Find out more in today?s podcast where we talk about the obvious, looming threats to your retirement security, and the structures you can build to do something about it.

http://www.sovereignman.com/podcast/...a-nationalization-audio-16042/

If you have an IRA, you need to know this.

I?ve also put together a free report about safeguarding your IRA; it?s a scaled down version of a premium report that I sent to our Sovereign Man: Confidential members recently, but it contains a lot of valuable information.

You can download it here:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/sm-cdn/blackpapers/IRA+Report-free.pdf

Our goal is simple: To help you achieve personal liberty and financial prosperity no matter what happens.

Will you be prepared when everything we take for granted changes overnight?

Just think about this for a couple of minutes. What if the U.S. Dollar wasn?t the world?s reserve currency? Ponder that? what if?

Empires Rise, they peak, they decline, they collapse, this is the cycle of history.


This historical pattern has formed and is already underway in many parts of the world, including the United States.

Don?t be one of the millions of people who gets their savings, retirement, and investments wiped out....
 

8574 Postings, 2748 Tage wawiduzu # 947 US BIP

 
  
    #114954
4
31.01.15 11:34
In das BIP gehen auch Lagerbestände ein. Daher mal ein Blick auf die Lagerbestände Ende 2014:

Produzenten (ohne Öl und Ölprodukte): 655 Mrd $
Großhandel: 550 Mrd $
Einzelhandel: 560 Mrd $  (Quelle: St. Louis Fed)

Besonders drastisch fiel der Anstieg der Lagerbestände an Durable Goods bei den Produzenten aus:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=Z1x  

39106 Postings, 3924 Tage Anti LemmingOb der Fed-Chart in # 954

 
  
    #114955
4
31.01.15 13:07
wohl inflationsbereinigt ist? Ich glaube eher nicht. Trotzdem ist der Steilanstieg gerade in den letzten Jahren, als die US-Inflation ja niedrig war, sehr bedenklich. Offenbar wurden Lagerbestände auf Halde produziert - unterstützt von der Nullzinspolitik und QE der Fed. Letzteres ermöglichte US-Firmen die eine historisch noch nie gesehende Junkbond-Sause zur Refinanzierung. Dem stand jedoch keine entsprechend hohe reale Nachfrage gegenüber. Konsumsteigerungen waren für die meisten Amis nur kreditfinanziert möglich, und seit 2008 sind sie bei "auf Pump" vorsichtiger geworden (Deleveraging).

Fazit: Die US-Planwirtschaftler hatten in ihrem letzten 5-Jahresplan eine zu große Produkt-Nachfrage unterstellt, weil sie außer Acht ließen, dass die gedruckten Fed-Dollars nur sehr spärlich bei den Konsumenten ankommen.

Das Resultat ist eine "Potemkin'sche Wirtschaftserholung": Das BIP steigt zwar "wie geplant" (Haldeproduktion wird dem BIP zugeschlagen), und aus der Distanz betrachtet sieht das scheinbar überzeugend aus. In deutschen Wirtschaftsgazetten liest man unisoni, dass sich die Amerikaner "besser von der Krise befreit" hätten. Tritt man näher heran, bemerkt man jedoch, dass es sich bei der US-Erholung um eine klassische "Petomkin'sche Pappfassade" handelt.
 

8574 Postings, 2748 Tage wawiduA.L. # 953

 
  
    #114956
3
31.01.15 13:41
In diesen Teufelskreis von Unterdeckungen passen auch gut die in den beiden folgenden Artikeln aufgezeigten Malaisen:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-26/...on-shortfall-moodys-warns

http://www.breitbart.com/california/2014/04/18/...-billion-shortfall/  

8574 Postings, 2748 Tage wawiduA.L. # 955

 
  
    #114957
2
31.01.15 16:18
Nein, der Chart der Lagerbestände der Produzenten an langlebigen Gütern ist nicht inflationsbereinigt. Ein Vergleich dieses Charts mit dem angehängten Chart der Auslieferungen (shipments) langlebiger Güter spricht jedoch Bände.  
Angehängte Grafik:
us-durable-goods-shipments.jpg (verkleinert auf 76%) vergrößern
us-durable-goods-shipments.jpg

39106 Postings, 3924 Tage Anti LemmingChaconne

 
  
    #114958
4
31.01.15 20:03

4 Postings, 282 Tage omei omeiHigh noon ab März?

 
  
    #114959
2
31.01.15 21:53

34150 Postings, 5576 Tage KickyThe Sovereignman eine merkwürdige Quelle

 
  
    #114960
1
01.02.15 11:40
Blacksmith Pte. Ltd. publisher of Sovereign Man No.4 Kiarong Complex Gadong 2nd Floor Block D BSB, Brunei-Muara BE1318 Brunei Darussalam
http://www.internationalman.com/im-forum/viewthread/114/#3313

und wenn man dann das Vorwort liest z.B.  ehemaliger Intelligence Officer und wie er erfuhr ,dass die Regierung immer lügt und merkt,dass er wohl ganz grosszügig helfen will,Vermögen im Ausland zu verstecken,dann bekommt seine excessive Schwarzmalerei ein etwas anderes Gesicht:
As destructive as these politicians are, though, they?re easy to defeat. Individuals who take action early have plenty of options to buy precious metals, move a portion of their savings abroad to a stable banking jurisdiction, and scout out locations overseas in case they ever need to get out of dodge.

These steps make sense no matter what. It?s hard to imagine that you?ll be worse off for shipping a few physical ounces of gold abroad, having some savings stashed away in a healthy foreign bank, taking control of your retirement account, or something as simple as planting a garden in your backyard.
http://www.sovereignman.com/about/

One advantage of Brunei I guess is that it?s simply lower-profile than the other possible financial centres in the region. Singapore keeps coming up in the media as the destination of all the private banking funds which are being pulled out of Switzerland, and Labuan (though less well-known to the general public) has had lots of complaints by Malaysia?s tax-treaty partners about its use for ?treaty shopping?. But no one?s ever really heard of Brunei...  Quelle s.1.Link oben

und dann wundert es auch nicht mehr wenn man das hier findet:
http://www.gatheringspot.net/topic/...-monitoring-you-these-377-words
See list of words below that are searched for in all emails and telephone conversations by the US Government without any judge signed 4th amendment warrant for search, seizure, or wiretap. ....  

34150 Postings, 5576 Tage Kickyaddition

 
  
    #114961
1
01.02.15 11:43
Here's the truth: the world is changing quickly. The door is open TODAY for a number of opportunities-- reducing the risk of capital controls through foreign bank accounts and offshore gold storage, obtaining multiple passports, etc.

These opportunities will not last. As Simon expalins, many doors are closing rapidly, and taking action TODAY is the surest way to make sure you don't get left out in the cold.Start taking advantage of this boots on the ground intelligence today, and sign up for a RISK FREE trial to Sovereign Man: Confidential.
Simon Black
Senior Editor, SovereignMan.com  

34150 Postings, 5576 Tage KickyAnteil d.Government Bonds m. Negativrendite steigt

 
  
    #114962
2
01.02.15 12:10
und lag laut JPM letzte Woche bei 16% weltweit,davon alleine 1,5 Billionen in Europa (1,8 Billionen m.Schweden,Dänemark u.Schweiz)

JPM stellt auch dar ,wer sie trotzdem kauft: Anleger die die Sicherheit suchen oder Currency-Gewinne machen wollen.....
Die EZB The ECB funds its bond purchases at a depo rate of -20bp so buying bonds with slightly negative yields is still a positive carry trade. The BoJ bought government debt securities at negative yields in recent months.
Banks buy bonds with negative yields to escape negative depo rates such as those by the ECB, SNB and the Danish central bank. There is currently a large amount of ?220bn of reserves subjected to negative interest rates and this amount looks set to grow exponentially due to ECB's QE

und man kann sich ausmalen ,was passiert, wenn die Anleger diese Geschäfte für zu risikoreich halten wie in der Schweiz und umschichten

As of the end of December, foreign banks had CHF17bn of sight deposits with the SNB while non-bank domestic institutions had CHF33bn of deposits. At a depo rate of -75bp these CHF50bn of sight deposits could cost CHF375m per annum to their owners. This is enough for these institutions to rush to get rid of these deposits by purchasing bonds with yields as low as -75bp in order to reduce this loss. Most likely they purchase these bonds from banks not subjected to negative depo rate. As a result, 7-year Swiss government bond yields declined to as low as -67bp last week. .......http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-31/...yield-here-whos-buying-it  

34150 Postings, 5576 Tage KickyDie Superreichen sehen Mistgabeln und Guillotinen

 
  
    #114963
2
01.02.15 12:27
und suchen sich abgelegene Verstecke
Interview mit Rob Johnson http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/02/...future.html#comment-2397805   VIDEO
This is a short but important conversation with Rob Johnson, the president of INET, on what was and more important, not said at Davos. The super wealthy know that the governance structures around them are breaking down, but rather than take measures to shoer them up, they are be retreating into concrete bunkers.

auch zerohedge zum Thema
A lot of ultra-rich people are quietly preparing to ?bug out? when the time comes.  They are buying survival properties, they are buying farms in far away countries and they are buying deep underground bunkers.  In fact, a prominent insider at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland says that ?very powerful people are telling us they?re scared? and he shocked his audience when he revealed that he knows ?hedge fund managers all over the world who are buying airstrips and farms in places like New Zealand?.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-31/...eparing-bug-out-locations  

34150 Postings, 5576 Tage KickyFor Sale: Renovated Luxury Condo Atombunker

 
  
    #114964
01.02.15 12:30
http://www.wsj.com/articles/...-can-survive-nuclear-attack-1415575922
The so-called Survival Condo complex boasts full and half-floor units that cost $1.5 million to $3 million each. The building can accommodate up to 75 people, and buyers include doctors, scientists and entrepreneurs, says developer Larry Hall.
Mr. Hall, who lives in a Denver suburb, bought his first missile-silo site in Kansas in 2008 and completed construction in December 2012. A year later, he says, the development had sold out. Work on the second security compound?the one where Mr. Allen bought a unit?is under way, and Mr. Hall says he is considering additional sites in Texas and elsewhere....

 

39106 Postings, 3924 Tage Anti LemmingKicky

 
  
    #114965
1
01.02.15 12:31
Es stimmt, man muss von solchen Katastrophen-Artikeln (# 953) das Eigeninteresse des Souvereign Wealth Funds abziehen (stutzig machen schon die Verweise auf seine eigenen Offshore-Alternativen am Ende des Artikels).

Dennoch ist das, was in dem Artikel steht, nicht völlig an den Haaren herbeigezogen. Der Artikel  enthält Wahrheit - und mehr als nur "ein Körnchen".

So ist z. B. der erwähnte MyRA eine Realität. MyRA will Gelder aus IRA (Rentenfonds von US-Arbeitnehmern, die hiesigen Rentenansprüchen entsprechen) umleiten und ausschließlich in US-Staatsanleihen anlegen.

Warum wohl? Leider muss man hier - da gebe ich Simon Black Recht - von betrügerischer Absicht ausgehen. Das fängt schon mit der Verzinsungen von US-Staatsanleihen unter der Inflationsrate an. Dies alllein ist "Raub auf Raten". Und wenn dann wegen der Fed-Flutungs-Politik auch noch der Dollar in die Knie geht, werden die Staatsanleihen real (im Sinne von globaler Kaufkraft) noch mehr an Wert verlieren.

Bärenthread-Lesern traue ich zu, dass sie in der Lage sind, aus dem Sensationalismus solcher Artikel das Essenzielle heraus zu destillieren. Und wenn nicht, dann eben nicht...  

34150 Postings, 5576 Tage KickyÖlproduktion steigend in USA

 
  
    #114966
2
01.02.15 12:34
When the rig count was released today, West Texas Intermediate spiked nearly 9% to $48.32 a barrel, fired up by a big bout of short-covering. It now trades for $47.74, up 7.2% for the day. And yet, it?s still below $50!

But the cutbacks in investments and drilling activities have not yet had any impact on actual production. That is a function of existing wells. New wells are constantly being completed, and their production adds to existing production. So what really needs to happen for the oil bust to end is a decline in production ? because demand isn?t picking up the slack. But that just isn?t happening, not yet.

Production continues to rise, internationally and in the US. Oil company by oil company, they?re all projecting further increases in production. They?re cutting drilling activities, they?re laying off people, they?re closing facilities, but they?re pumping as much oil as they can to salvage what?s left of their fizzling cash flow.

The US Energy Information Agency projects production from US wells (except from Alaska and the Federal Gulf of Mexico) to continue rising into 2015 with a tiny bit of tapering toward the end of the year. In this chart, which the EIA released on January 26, the maroon line represents the total rig count for oil and gas (rather than just for oil,as above). The colored areas (dark blue to green) represent production from new wells each quarter. Their drooping lines are a reflection of the steep decline rates inherent in fracked wells. In other words: new wells have to be drilled constantly just to keep production flat. If the rig count drops by enough, there won?t be enough new wells to make up for dwindling production from legacy wells. That?s when production will begin to taper off.

Meanwhile, rising production in the US, combined with slack demand growth, is ballooning crude oil inventories. In the latest reporting week, these inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by another 8.9 million barrels to 406.7 million barrels, the highest level for this time of year in ?at least the last 80 years,? the EIA reported.

Every rally in oil over the last six months has gotten hammered down brutally. Eventually, the oil glut will end. Everyone knows this. But we haven?t seen demand pick up or production decline to make a dent in the glut. And the wave of defaults and bankruptcies that needs to happen to shake out over-indebted, less efficient players has only just started. So it appears that folks who are trying to catch this falling knife may get some of their fingers sliced off.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/01/...letting-just-beginning.html  

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  2 Nutzer wurden vom Verfasser von der Diskussion ausgeschlossen: derunwissende, lehna