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Der USA Bären-Thread

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neuester Beitrag: 30.03.15 21:23
eröffnet am: 20.02.07 18:45 von: Anti Lemmin. Anzahl Beiträge: 115620
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39906 Postings, 3981 Tage Anti LemmingDer USA Bären-Thread

 
  
    #1
420
20.02.07 18:45
Dies ist ein Thread für mittelfristig orientierte Bären (keine Daytrader), die im Laufe dieses Jahres mit einem stärkeren Rückgang der US-Indizes rechnen - u. a. auf Grund folgender Fundamental-Faktoren:





1.  Zunehmende Probleme im US-Housing-Markt wegen Überkapazitäten, fallender Preise,
    rückläufiger Verkaufszahlen und fauler Hypotheken, vor allem im Subprime-Sektor

2.  Auf Grund dessen mögliche Banken-, Junkbond- und/oder Hedgefonds-Krise
    (HSBC warnte bereits)

3.  Überschuldung der USA im Inland (negative Sparquote, Haushaltsdefizit)
    und im Ausland (Handelsdefizit)

4.  Möglicher weiterer Wertverlust des Dollars zum Euro (zurzeit bereits über 1,30)

5.  Anziehende Inflation wegen Überschuldung und unkontrollierten Geldmengenwachstums

6.  Weitere Zinserhöhungen der Fed zur Inflationsbekämpfung

7.  Rückgang des US-Konsumentenvertrauens und weniger Konsum wegen der
    Liquiditätsrückgänge und drückender Housing-Schulden

8.  Rückabwicklung von Yen-Carry-Trades, weil Japan die Zinsen erhöht
    -> Ende der "globalen Hyperliquidität"

9.  Probleme im Irak, wachsende Kriegsgefahr in Iran/Nahost, Ölpreis-Anstieg

10. Terrorgefahr

11. Überbewertung der US-Aktien (das DOW-JONES KGV für 2006 liegt bei 24,25,
    das des SP-500 bei 19)

12. Aktien-Hausse der letzten vier Jahre verlief ohne nennenswerte Korrekturen
    (untypisch)





Dieser Thread soll meinen inzwischen leider teilweise gelöschten Doomsday-Bären-Thread ersetzen. Außerdem möchte ich in diesem Eingangsposting deutlich machen, dass der Fokus auf USA liegt (der DAX spielt nur am Rande eine Rolle, da die wirtschaftliche Lage hier zu Lande besser ist).

Ich wünsch mir in diesem Thread eine faire, offene und vor allem sachliche Diskussion, möglichst wenig persönliche Querelen, Beleidigungen und sinnlose Hahnenkämpfe. Wer notorisch stört und Unfrieden stiftet oder rassistische Sprüche ablässt, kommt auf die Ignore-Liste (was weitere Postings hier verhindert).
 
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115594 Postings ausgeblendet.

39906 Postings, 3981 Tage Anti LemmingRussland will bei Chinas AIIB einsteigen

 
  
    #115596
1
29.03.15 12:42
Neue Allianz gegen die USA
Gegen den Dollar: Russland will bei Chinas Entwicklungsbank einsteigen

Russland will sich an an der neuen chinesischen Entwicklungsbank AIIB beteiligen. Die AIIB gilt als Gegenstück zur Weltbank und dem IWF und soll den Einfluss der USA im asiatisch-pazifischen zurückdrängen. Sehr zum Ärger der Amerikaner haben sich auch die Verbündeten Australien und Südkorea der neuen Allianz angeschlossen.

http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2015/...gsbank-einsteigen/  

35023 Postings, 5633 Tage KickyWarum die Sanktionen gg Russland nicht wirken

 
  
    #115597
2
29.03.15 13:21
MOSCOW ? The Western approach to Russia is predicated on the supposition that continued pressure on the country will cause President Vladimir Putin?s regime to make concessions or even crumble. Nothing could be further from the truth.

The assumption underlying the efficacy of Western sanctions is that the sharp economic deterioration that results from them will turn the Russian public, particularly the financial and political elite, against the Kremlin. Putin will not be able to withstand mounting dissent from affluent urban areas and the country?s burgeoning middle class.

Meanwhile, the thinking goes, military pressure ? in the form of potential lethal aid to Ukraine ? will similarly mobilize ordinary Russians against Putin. Unwilling to see their boys die for the Donbas, they will form an anti-war movement that will force him to rein in his territorial ambitions. Pressed at once from above and from below, the Kremlin will be have to change its policies, and perhaps even begin to democratize.

What Western policymakers fail to understand is that such an approach is less likely to undermine the regime than to cause Russians to close ranks behind it. Opinion polls show that Russians perceive Western pressure and sanctions to be aimed not at Putin and his cronies, but at Russia and its citizens. In January, 69% of Russians supported the Kremlin?s policy in Ukraine, according to a poll by the independent Levada Center.

To be sure, Putin?s support is not rock-solid; indeed, there is widespread suspicion about corruption in his government. But Russians have a long tradition of defending their compatriots from outsiders. And in this case, the compatriots under attack are Putin and his government.
.....
It is in this context that Putin has been able to use Western pressure as a tool to regain the support of many Russians, who only a few years ago would have felt detached from, if not alienated by, his government. Presented with a real or imagined threat to the fatherland, the average Russian supports the country?s leaders.

Nor is the Russian middle class, which makes up some 20-30% of the population, likely to pose much of a threat to Putin. With many of its members owing their recent wealth to high oil prices and the economic recovery of the 2000s, loyalty to the Putin regime is one of the Russian middle class?s abiding characteristics.
.....
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/...03#Cd71ZsVHCR34Sxhq.99  

7742 Postings, 3084 Tage StöffenDie Gründung der AIIB

 
  
    #115598
2
29.03.15 14:09
lässt unwillkürlich den Gedanken aufkommen, dass hiermit auch ein Angriff auf die globale Finanzmacht und die Vormachtsstellung der USA stattfinden wird. Interessanterweise widerspricht hier aktuell die ehemalige Wall Street-Bankerin und Buchautorin Nomi Prins, die in kritischer Weise darauf aufmerksam macht, dass die sechs großen Mega-Banken in den USA sowie die Untergruppe der 30 G-SIB (global systemically important banks ? global systemisch relevante Banken) mittlerweile eine Fülle an Unterstützung durch Regierungen, Zentralbanken und multinationale Unternehmen genießen, die seinerzeit noch undenkbar gewesen wäre.

In Europa wie auch in Süd-Korea, Australien u.v.a. hat es den Anschein, dass in dem Zusammenhang der AIIB-Gründung die kommerziellen Verlockungen Chinas höher gewichtet würden als die Loyalität zum sicherheitspolitischen Bündnispartner USA. Allerdings sollte das nicht darüber hinwegtäuschen, dass wenn es aber hart auf hart kommen sollte, ein Schulterschluss mit den USA sicherlich rasch vollzogen wird. Wer da Parolen a la "Spaltung des Westens" heraus trompetet, verkennt wahrscheinlich die momentan noch vorherrschenden Machtverhältnisse. Und nicht ohne Grund verkündete hierzulande das Bundesfinanzministerium, dass der bundesdeutsche AIIB-Beitritt auch "in enger Abstimmung mit internationalen und europäischen Partnern" erfolgt sei.

So sind beispielsweise Weltbank und IWF von den USA und ihren westlichen Verbündeten eindeutig dominierte Finanzorgane. Dass Peking mittlerweile zu den größten Volkswirtschaften der Welt aufgestiegen ist und somit auch auf einen dementsprechend gewichteten Einfluss drängt, erscheint aufgrund dieser Prämisse zunächst legitim. Wer das jedoch zum Anlass nimmt, einen Abgesang auf den raschen Verfall der globalen Führungsrolle der USA anzustimmen, tut dies möglicherweise doch zu früh.

Nomi Prins im Interview mit Lars Schall:

LS: Lassen Sie uns schnell vorwärtsspringen. Sehen Sie die Finanzmacht der USA auf dem Globus im Niedergang begriffen?

NP: Ich nicht, weil ? und das ist anders als das, was viele meiner Zeitgenossen sagen ?, aufgrund dieser Machtallianz, die besteht, wegen der Festigkeit und den historischen Verbindungen zwischen dem Weißen Haus und den mächtigsten Akteuren und Institutionen und Vermächtnissen an der Wall Street. Es steht so viel auf dem Spiel für beide Seiten, und es werden solche epischen Subventionen ans Finanzsystem gegeben wie es ist, da dies die Macht der Regierung in Washington und umgekehrt stärkt.

Das ist der Grund, weshalb die Regierung diesen großen Bankern und Instituten erlaubt, mit dem, was sie tun, davonzukommen, und weshalb sie sie in dem Umfang subventioniert, in dem sie es tut. Diese Banken werden künstlich durch Subventionen gestützt, und nicht von ihrer eigenen inhärenten Rentabilität. Dies ist eine sehr gefährliche Position, in der sie sich befinden, und in die sie uns alle hineinbringen. Die Fed hält 4,2 Billionen Dollar an Wertpapieren, die aufgrund eines epischen Anleiheaufkaufs in ihrer Bilanz stehen, zusätzlich zur Verfolgung einer Nullzinspolitik seit fast sechs Jahren in der Folge der Krise von 2008.

Das ist nur ein weiterer Hinweis darauf, wie viel Kraft, wie viel Macht aufgewendet wird, und wie viel dumme, aber echte Entscheidungen in Washington gemacht werden, um diese Machtallianz zu bewahren. Ich glaube nicht, dass es derzeit irgendeine andere Nation in der Welt gibt, die eine so starke und historische Verbindung zwischen ihrer Politik und ihrem Bankensystem hat, und das ist der Grund dafür, warum die USA weiterhin das tun, was sie tun, und warum sie diese Entscheidungen treffen und in diesem Machtspiel Straflosigkeit für diese Personen ermöglichen. Ich denke, solange es so viel Subventionierung und so wenig Verantwortlichkeit im Bankensystem gibt, wird die US-Finanzmacht bewahrt werden. Es ist eine schlechte Art und Weise der Machterhaltung, aber ich denke, dass ist das, was wir jetzt sehen und sehen werden.

Komplett hier

http://www.larsschall.com/2015/03/26/...kalte-krieg-und-die-weltbank/
-----------
Bubbles are normal and non-bubble times are depressions!

35023 Postings, 5633 Tage KickyEarnings Manipulation Underway

 
  
    #115599
1
29.03.15 14:24
Let's dive into the FactSet Earnings Insight Report for first quarter of 2015.
http://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/...t/earningsinsight_3.27.15

Key Metrics

   Earnings Growth: For Q115, year-over-year earnings for the S&P 500 are projected to decline by 4.6%. If the index reports a year-over-year decline for the quarter, it will be the first time since Q 3 2012 (-1.0%).
   Earnings Revisions: On December 31, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q1 2015 was 4.2%. All ten sectors have lower growth rates today (compared to December 31) due to downward revisions to earnings estimates, led by the Energy sector.
   Earnings Guidance: For Q1 2015, 85 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 16 companies have issued positive EPS guidance.
   Valuation: The current 12-month forward P/E ratio is 16.7. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year (13.7) average and the 10-year (14.1) average for the index.
   Earnings Scorecard: Of the 16 companies that have reported earnings to date for Q1 2015, 14 have reported earnings above the mean estimate and 10 have reported sales above the mean estimate.

Overview
Analysts and corporations continue to lower expecta
tions for earnings for the S&P 500 for the first
quarter. On a per-share basis, estimated earnings f
or the first quarter have fallen by 8.2% since
December 31. This is the largest decline in the bot
tom-up EPS estimate for a quarter since Q1 2009
Companies have also lowered the bar for earnings fo
r Q1, as 85 companies in the index have issued
negative EPS guidance, while just 16 companies have
issued positive EPS guidance. The percentage of
companies issuing negative EPS guidance is 84% (85
out of 101), which is well above the 5-year average
of 68%



Every year, whether earnings are going up or down, companies guide analysts to numbers low enough they can beat.
Don't Worry Companies Will Still "Beat the Street"

In spite of those downgrades, history suggests corporations will still "Beat the Street".
Even in 2008 and 2009 the majority of firms beat estimates. Here is the way the process works:

   Corporations give analysts "tips" regarding profit expectations.
   Those profit expectations are purposely low.
   Wall Street analysts lower estimates, if necessary, as the quarter progresses such that corporations can "beat the street".
   If corporations are going to miss and need an extra penny, they change tax assumption or make other "one time" adjustments as necessary.
   Corporations beat the street by a penny with "pro-forma" (after adjustment) reporting.

Stock are only cheap compared to 1929, the dot-com bubble, and the housing bubble. Given the plunge in earnings estimates, this market will soon pass the housing bubble in amplitude.The 1929 peak may even be in sight. And in many ways, this bubble is worse than the dot-com bubble, as during the tech wreck one could find many companies with good valuations. It was predominately technology with PE extremes.


Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/...bVOWtaaYlfZp3g0.99  

35023 Postings, 5633 Tage KickyWall Streets promise of Escape Velocity is a joke

 
  
    #115600
1
29.03.15 14:30
The consistency with which nearly every report on the US economy has deteriorated over the last few months is astonishing. Only the jobs report has been spared that sharp downdraft. So we blame the weather, which in parts of the US was truly atrocious, while in other parts, particularly in California, it was gorgeous.

Too gorgeous. This is supposed to be our rainy season, but every day the sun is out as we?re heading into our fourth year of drought. Yet the drought isn?t what keeps people from shopping or companies from ordering equipment. So out here, we?re baffled when the weather gets blamed.

Today?s durable goods report for February was another shot at this wobbly edifice of the US economy.

New orders for manufactured durable goods dropped by 1.4%, the Census Bureau reported. It was the third decrease in four months. Transportation equipment fell 3.5%, also the third decrease in four months. Excluding transportation, new orders ? ?core? durable goods ? fell 0.4%, down for the fifth month in a row.

And Core Capital Goods New Orders, considered an important gauge of business spending, fell 1.4%, down for the sixth month in a row. The weather is really hard to blame for this, so folks blamed the strong dollar and slack demand in the US and globally.

The data was bad enough to push the Atlanta Fed?s GDPNow model of the US economy down another step toward zero growth in the first quarter.
......
And Wall Street?s promise of ?Escape Velocity,? the miracle speed that the US economy would achieve in the near future to pull out of its sluggish orbit and move to the next level? That promise has been propagated for years. Each time, and with relentless regularity, it turned into just another false Wall-Street promise whose purpose it was to rationalize stock prices that have defied rationalization, and drive them even higher. And in doing so, the year-after-year promise of ?Escape Velocity? has become a joke.

The Fed has floored the monetary accelerator with its steel-capped, lead-lined boot for over six years. Other central banks have followed. They expected, or pretended to expect, that it would create demand, economic activity, and consumer-price inflation. None of which happened. Instead, it created a ?bond bubble? that is becoming ?more extreme? and stock markets that are ?overvalued,? according to 11,000 financial professionals
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/03/25/...ro-growth-escape-velocity-stalls/  

35023 Postings, 5633 Tage KickyZentralbanken warnen :Liquidität verschwindet

 
  
    #115601
1
29.03.15 14:36
....
liquidity is a funny thing: it evaporates without notice, just when you need it the most.

Liquidity gives you the ability to sell something without having to slash the price. When no one wants to sell and when you don?t need liquidity, there?s plenty of it. But when you really need liquidity to sell something because you see something worrisome, then everybody else sees the same thing, and they too need to sell. Buyers, who also see the same thing, disappear. And liquidity just evaporates.It doesn?t mean you can?t sell. It means you have to slash your price to sell. ....

After six years of global QE and interest rate repression, absurdly inflated valuations ? from government bonds with negative yields to junk bonds with ultra-low yields ? have become the norm. But liquidity has become, to use the Bank of England?s expression, ?more fragile.?

Last week, the Bank for International Settlements rang the alarm bells on liquidity, fretting that bond markets have become vulnerable to these sorts of shocks. And yesterday, the Bank of England Financial Policy Committee released the statement of its March 24 meeting that was jam-packed with warnings about ?market liquidity risks? ? and potential ?sharp adjustments in financial markets.?
....
Not that central-bank warnings have any impact on investors. They?re too busy chasing yield. And thus government bond yields continue to bounce along near zero, or below zero...... It has taken central banks six years to blindfold investors to risk, and now investors have become addicted to these blindfolds and simply don?t want to take them off. But when they do, possibly all at the same time, they?ll find out that the liquidity they thought would be there for them has just evaporated......
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/03/27/...idity-risk-central-bank-warnings/  

35023 Postings, 5633 Tage KickyDe-Dollarization Continues As Russia Seeks AIIB Me

 
  
    #115602
1
29.03.15 14:43
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-28/...sia-seeks-aiib-membership
.......
The question now is not whether de-dollarization is progressing or whether a shift away from US-dominated multinational institutions is in the offing (that horse, as one ADB official put it, has left the barn), but rather whether China will be aggressive about using the AIIB to begin a push towards yuan hegemony. Of course Beijing is playing down the idea that it will use the new development bank as a means of advancing China?s global footprint, but as we noted on Thursday, actions speak louder than words.


Dänemark joins, Luxembourg joins,Australia joins,The Netherlands join...
The AIIB, seen as a challenge to existing institutions the World Bank and Asian Development Bank, has drawn a cool response from the United States,

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/03/28/...nds-idUKKBN0MO0FN20150328  

35023 Postings, 5633 Tage KickyUS-Einfluss Weltbank u.Asian Development Bank

 
  
    #115603
29.03.15 14:58
https://ncgg.princeton.edu/IPES/2011/papers/F930_rm3.pdf

http://repec.library.villanova.edu/workingpapers/VSBEcon13.pdf

https://ncgg.princeton.edu/IPES/2010/papers/F410_paper2.pdf

Fleck and Kilby (2006)
find a link between U.S. interests and World Bank disbursements. This link could be driven, at least in part, by the role U.S. interests play in the formal process of loan approval by the board. ....  

6174 Postings, 3012 Tage KellermeisterDirk Müller sollte mal den Nikkei Chart anschauen

 
  
    #115604
1
29.03.15 15:37
u. dann nochmal gute Ratschläge geben...  

39906 Postings, 3981 Tage Anti LemmingÖsterreich schafft Einlagensicherung ab

 
  
    #115605
2
30.03.15 09:09
- ist dem Staat bei den wackeligen Banken dort offenbar zu riskant.

http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2015/...thaben-nicht-mehr/

Es wird ernst: Österreich garantiert die Sparguthaben nicht mehr

In Österreich wird die staatliche Einlagensicherung abgeschafft: Damit haften künftig nur noch die Banken für die Guthaben der Sparer. Österreich agiert wegen des Banken-Krachs als EU-Vorreiter. Die EU hat dieses Vorgehen in einer Richtlinie beschlossen. Daher werden sich über kurz oder lang alle Staaten als Garanten der Sparguthaben verabschieden.

Österreich plant eine weitreichende Reform der Einlagensicherung: Ein zur Begutachtung ausgesandter Gesetzesentwurf sieht vor, dass in Österreich künftig für die Sicherung der Spareinlagen keine staatlichen Garantien bestehen, sondern dass die Banken selbst für die Sicherung der Spareinlagen verantwortlich sein sollen [LOL, Bock zum Gärtner, A.L.]. Das berichten die Wiener Zeitungen Presse und Standard.

Das Modell ist auch für die deutschen Sparer von Interesse, weil Österreich damit eine EU-Richtlinie umsetzt, die bereits vor zwei Jahren von der EU beschlossen wird. Als Richtlinie ist dieses Vorgehen für alle EU-Staaten verpflichtend und wird im Zuge der Bankenunion über kurz oder lang in allen Staaten umgesetzt, auch in Deutschland.

Das Gesetz sieht vor, dass die Banken eine eigene Einlagensicherung in der Höhe von 1,5 Milliarden Euro einrichten. Im Fall einer Bankenpleite müssen die Banken den Sparern Einlagen bis zu 100.000 Euro ersetzen. Bisher hatten die Banken 50.000 Euro garantiert, weitere 50.000 Euro kamen von der staatlichen Einlagensicherung....  

39906 Postings, 3981 Tage Anti LemmingLebend-Rind hat Ende 2014 ausgetoppt

 
  
    #115606
1
30.03.15 09:24
 
Angehängte Grafik:
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39906 Postings, 3981 Tage Anti LemmingGewinnwarnungen der SP-500-Firmen häufen sich

 
  
    #115607
1
30.03.15 09:32
- nicht zuletzt wegen des hier schon mehrfach als "Gewinnbremse" erwähnten starken US-Dollars.

www.marketwatch.com/story/profit-warnings-are-piling-up-2015-03-27

Profit warnings are piling up

Of S&P 500 companies providing first-quarter outlooks, 84% have been negative

...Ahead of the start of earnings reporting season, which unofficially kicks off when Alcoa Inc. AA, -1.40%  reports results on April 8, about 84% of the companies that have provided first-quarter outlooks gave negative outlooks. That?s above the 81% that warned Q1 2014, and the five-year average of 68%.
Number of pre-announcements among S&P 500 companies.

Quarter Total Negative* (% of total) Positive (% of total)

Q1 2015 101 85 (84.2%) 16 (15.8%)
Q4 2014 108 87 (80.6%) 21 (19.4%)
Q3 2014 112 82 (73.2%) 30 (26.8%)
Q2 2014 116 86 (74.1%) 30 (25.9%)
Q1 2014 113 92 (81.4%) 21 (18.6%)

*Five-year average of negative guidance is 68%
Source: FactSet

Many of the companies blamed the negative effects of currency movements, lower commodity prices or both, for the negative pre-announcements. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, +0.49%  has gained 7.6% year to date, and 21% over the last 12 months. A rising dollar lowers the value of profit and sales made overseas.

...Aggregate first-quarter earnings for the S&P 500  are currently projected to decline 4.6% from year-ago levels, compared with 2.8% growth in last year?s first quarter, and 7.8% growth in the second quarter, according to FactSet. If that outlook holds through reporting season, it would mark the first year-over-year earnings decline since the third quarter of 2012, Butters said....
 

11245 Postings, 4884 Tage lehna#06-- AL--Nun mal keine Witzchen...

 
  
    #115608
1
30.03.15 09:36
zu meinem Vorbild Warren Buffet...
Cola mit Eis und Schokochips zum Frühstück.
"Die niedrigsten Sterberaten gibt es unter Sechsjährigen. Also habe ich entschieden, mich wie einer zu ernähren", resümierte der 84 Jahre alte Starinvestor.
Alles klar, Statistiken lügen nie...
http://www.stern.de/wirtschaft/news/...in-sechsjaehriger-2176534.html  

39906 Postings, 3981 Tage Anti LemmingDie Bläh-Phasen werden immer kürzer

 
  
    #115609
3
30.03.15 10:38
so dass demnächst mit "Durchfall" gerechnet werden muss.

[@Lehna: schon mal Inkontinenzbinden ins Depot legen]

 
Angehängte Grafik:
sppp.png (verkleinert auf 72%) vergrößern
sppp.png

35023 Postings, 5633 Tage KickyFelix Zulauf warnt

 
  
    #115610
2
30.03.15 10:50
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=36582

Felix Zulauf:The current cycle is very unusual, because never before have we seen authorities, central banks in particular, intervening on such a large scale and pumping so much money into global financial markets. Hence, global financial markets are more distorted than ever before and accordingly, the risks are very high. Investing becomes very difficult in such an unprecedented environment, as it can?t be compared to previous situations.

Frank Suess: When you look at our financial markets today, what would you consider are the most alarming themes? And how can they affect the current situation?

Felix Zulauf: Global demand has weakened due to structural reasons. This is a situation that cannot be improved by pumping liquidity into the system. Zero or even negative interest rates have distorted the valuation and pricing of virtually all assets. We know that the longer a distortion prevails, the more investors get used to it and it becomes the ?new normal? to them. That?s where the problem lies!

I see three potential threats: 1) Inflation and bond yields rise and begin to prick asset bubbles; 2) The world economy gets hit again by more deflation due to a weaker Chinese currency that would reinforce deflationary pressure, dampen pricing and corporate profits and finally the real global economy; and 3) Asset prices continue to rise and finally exhaust on the upside at very high and unsustainable valuation levels. In my view, #3 will be the most likely outcome.

Markets are the best capital allocators and capitalism works if the authorities let it take its course. Had they let markets correct all the excesses in previous business cycles instead of printing more and more money, the world would be in a much better shape today. But our authorities had the dream to smooth the business cycle by not allowing the markets and the system to correct itself. It is difficult to correct this in a painless way, which is what the authorities are trying to do. That won?t work.

......: The commodity cycle peaked in 2011 and I assume the bearish trend will last another few years. Oil?s decline is part of that down cycle. Demand and supply factors are at work here. Oil?s market share of total energy has been declining for some years. The Saudis want to change this by having a lower price and want others to cut back on production. On the demand side, the world is getting more and more energy efficient (the automobile sector is an example) and therefore demand is now rising, but at a slower rate than the economy......

China?s investment and credit boom was the biggest in recorded history. It peaked a while ago and is now in a downswing. After such a boom, the economy usually slows for 5-7 years and that is what?s happening in China. 7% growth is a joke; I would rather say it is now beginning to fall below 3% and won?t stop slowing for several years. China will be forced to help the banking and shadow banking system to digest the fallout of the previous boom and that means it will become more and more expansive in its monetary policy. In turn, this will weaken the Chinese currency. But China is moving slowly... Once the Renminbi weakens by 10-15%, it will weaken prices of globally traded goods once more. In turn, this will dampen inflation further as well as revenues, profit margins and profits in the corporate sector around the world. When this happens, many equity markets may realize that the ?emperor has no clothes?. In other words, China is key to the rest of the world.

Greece is bust ? like several others. But as long as the fiction that everything is okay and financing will be provided remains, the world doesn?t worry. My hunch is that the percentage of those in European politics that are fed up with Greece is rising and therefore it is only a matter of time until Greece defaults. A major restructuring and reform with Greece staying in the euro zone will be very difficult to achieve because the ECB will hardly provide the capital necessary for the refinancing of a restructured Greece. Hence, an exit may happen and the Drachma could be reintroduced with a value that is perhaps 50-70% lower compared to today?s currency. At that time, Greece has a true chance to recover.  

35023 Postings, 5633 Tage KickyOPEC's oil giant has daggers drawn with Iran

 
  
    #115611
30.03.15 17:06
is encircled by enemies, and now faces a failed state on its southern border

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/...lobal-oil-supply.html
..... Analysts expect crude prices to command a new ?geo-political premium? as it becomes clear that Saudi Arabia has lost control over the Yemen peninsular and faces a failed state on its 1,800 km southern border, where Al Qaeda can operate with near impunity.

Over 3.8m barrels a day (b/d) pass through the 18-mile Bab el-Mandeb Strait off Yemen, one of the world's key choke points for crude oil supply. While there is little likelihood of disruption to tanker traffic, Saudi Arabia is increasingly threatened by Shiite or Jihadi enemies of different kinds.

Shiite Houthi rebels have already seized Yemen?s capital, Sanaa, and pose a potential contagion risk for aggrieved Shia minorities across the Saudi border in the kingdom?s Southwest pocket, never an area friendly to the ruling Wahhabi dynasty in Riyadh.
The Houthis are well-armed with rocket-propelled grenades and surface-to-air missiles that were either caputured or came from Iran. They have been trained by the Lebanese Hezbollah.

?I don?t think air strikes are going to do the job, and it is not clear whether Saudi Arabia is really willing to put boots on the ground,? said Alastair Newton, head of political risk at Nomura and a former intelligence planner for the first Gulf War.

?Nor do I have much confidence in the ability of the Saudis to wage a successful campaign against the Houthis, despite their massive superiority on paper. Yemen is very difficult terrain, as the British learned in the Aden crisis,? he said.

"There is a real risk that the Saudis will keep doubling down in Yemen and in so doing will overstrain themselves?politically, militarily and even economically,? said Kenneth Pollack from the Brookings Institution in Washington.

Mr Pollack said the Saudis are being squeezed by low oil prices and the ?exorbitant? costs of welfare spending and subsidies to stabilize the region after the Arab Spring. ?The Kingdom cannot afford to get dragged deeper into a Yemeni quagmire it cannot stabilize on its own,? he said.

.....
Yet it is true enough to fan the worst fears of the Gulf?s royal dynasties. The ultimate nightmare for Saudis would be a revolt by the Shia majority in the Eastern Province, home to the giant Ghawar oil field and most of the kingdom?s crude output.

The level of Iranian involvement varies by country. The Qums division of Iran?s republican guard operates directly with Shia militias in Iraq. Elite Iranian units are on the ground in Syria. Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud, the former head of Saudi intelligence, recently told a forum in London that the Assad regime in Damascus would collapse within days without Iranian backing.

Iranian aid for Yemen?s Houthi rebels is less direct. It may be a bargaining chip to extract concessions, perhaps to pressure the Saudis to push up the price of oil by slashing production. Iran needs an oil price of $130 a barrel to cover its budget, making it acutely vulnerable to the current Saudi tactic of flooding the market. Iran's leaders have accused Saudi Arabia of driving down price deliberately to squeeze the Iranian economy.

The fast-moving events in Yemen are a bad defeat for the US, which had pinned its hopes on the British-trained president Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi. American diplomats and security officials have had to destroy documents and make a dash for the exits, reminiscent of the final days in Saigon at the end of the Vietnam War.

The dreams of the Arab Spring have died in one country after another. Both Yemen and Libya have collapsed, prey to Jihadi groups in multi-sided civil wars.

Libya?s oil output has slumped by half to 400,000 b/d since late last year....
Iraq?s output fell to 2.6m b/d in February, partly due to spill-overs from the war against ISIS. This is 700,000 b/d less than planned.....

 

35023 Postings, 5633 Tage KickyAIIP - US risks epic blunder

 
  
    #115612
2
30.03.15 17:11
The United States has handled its economic diplomacy with shocking myopia.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/...n-economic-enemy.html
The US Treasury's attempt to cripple the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) before it gets off the ground is clearly intended to head off China's ascendancy as a rival financial superpower, whatever the faux-pieties from Washington about standards of "governance".

Such a policy is misguided at every level, evidence of what can go wrong when a lame-duck president defers to posturing amateurs in Congress on delicate matters of global geostrategy.

Washington has enraged Britain by trying to browbeat Downing Street into boycotting the project. It has forced allies and friendly countries across the Far East to make a fatal choice between the US and China that none wished to make, and has ended up losing almost everybody. Germany, France, and Italy are joining. Australia and South Korea may follow soon.

The AIIB is exactly what the world needs. .......  

35023 Postings, 5633 Tage Kickycontinued

 
  
    #115613
30.03.15 17:18
.....American officials castigated Britain for breaking ranks and embracing the project, as if it were kowtowing to an enemy....

There is no doubt that the AIIB is a direct challenge to the World Bank, just as the new 'BRICS bank' takes aim at the International Monetary Fund. The two China-led bodies are intended to break Western control over global finance through the Bretton Woods institutions.
Yet whose fault is that? Under the Bretton Woods carve-up over the last seventy years, World Bank chiefs are always American by droit de seigneur, and all IMF chiefs are European. The US clings steadfastly to its IMF veto.
Capitol Hill has yet to ratify a reform of the IMF quota system that currently gives the US four times as much power as China, or approve a badly-needed expansion of IMF funding.

...As for the Europeans, they hijacked the IMF for an internal rescue of four eurozone countries, even though EMU is amply rich enough to sort out its own self-created mess. Every emerging market member of the IMF board opposed the original Troika plan for Greece in 2010 on the grounds that it was a rescue for North European banks and for the euro, not a rescue for Greece. They complained that Greece needed immediate debt relief rather than bail-out loans and therefore more debt, and events have proved them entirely right.
----
Those in Washington who think that China can be pushed around on such matters seem blind to the shifting strategic landscape, as if they still cling to Bush-era illusions of hegemonic power....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/...n-economic-enemy.html  

39906 Postings, 3981 Tage Anti LemmingAufstand in der EZB gegen Draghi

 
  
    #115614
1
30.03.15 19:11
http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2015/...chenland-krediten/

Aufstand gegen Draghi: Wilder Streit in der EZB wegen Griechenland-Krediten
.
Wegen der Kredite an griechische Banken ist ein heftiger Streit zwischen der EZB-Bankenaufsicht und der Geldpolitischen Abteilung ausgebrochen. Mario Draghi will die griechischen Banken mit Not-Krediten über Wasser halten. Die EZB-Bankenaufsicht sieht die Gefahr einer unerlaubten Staats-Finanzierung. Es geht also um einen Grundsatz-Konflikt, der sich aus der unkontrollierten Machtfülle der EZB ergibt.


Die Bankenunion mitsamt gemeinsamer Bankenaufsicht und Geldpolitik ist gerade einmal seit fünf Monaten etabliert und schon beginnen die Nerven zu flattern. Hintergrund ist ein Streit zwischen der Bankenaufsicht unter Danièle Nouy sowie den EZB-Notenbankern, die befürchten, die Bankenaufsicht könne die neuen Regeln allzu streng auslegen.

Nach dem Aufbau der beiden institutionellen Säulen entsteht offenbar ein interner Konflikt, der an Schärfe seit Ausbruch der Euro-Schuldenkrise 2010 seinesgleichen sucht, wie Bloomberg berichtet.

Die EZB-Geldpolitik einerseits und die Bankenaufsicht andererseits versuchen derzeit, beide Bereiche in einer Art und Weise auszurichten, die einen Weg aus den griechischen Turbulenzen aufzeigt und gleichzeitig eine Blaupause für andere bevorstehende Bankenkrisen ermöglicht.

Ähnlich wie sich die US-Politik in der Finanzkrise 2008 zwischen dem ?Moral-Hazard?, der mit der Rettung von Banken einhergeht, und einem möglichen wirtschaftlichen Chaos entscheiden musste, sind nun auch die EZB-Institutionen herausgefordert. Nämlich, den griechischen Forderungen nach Barmitteln nachzugeben ? oder nicht, was im Endeffekt das Ausscheiden Griechenlands aus der Eurozone auslösen könnte. Die damit verbundene finanz-politische Niederlage möchte die EZB offenbar nicht auf sich nehmen.

Der Streit zwischen der EZB und der EZB-Bankenaufsicht kocht nun hoch. Denn Danièle Nouys Beamte haben offenbar vor der Zusammenkunft im Februar zwischen Ministerpräsident Alexis Tsipras und EZB-Präsident Mario Draghi versucht zu verhindern, dass griechische Banken das Volumen ihrer kurzfristig laufenden Staatsanleihen (T-Bills) aufstocken können. Damit wurde dem griechischen Staat die eigene Finanzierung erschwert. Die Maßnahme wurde jedoch zunächst ausgesetzt, wie zwei Insider berichten, die anonym bleiben wollen. Denn der EZB-Rat sei vor der Strenge der Auflage seitens der Bankenaufsicht zurückgeschreckt. Zugleich betrachtete der Rat den Einspruch der Bankenaufsicht als ?ungeschickten Intervention in die Krisenpolitik?.

Seit Februar dieses Jahres bewilligt der EZB-Rat nur geringe wöchentliche Aufstockungen von ELA-Kredite für griechische Banken. Inzwischen liegt das von der EZB festgesetzte Limit jedoch bereits bei über 71 Milliarden Euro.

Mario Draghi versucht, die Gelder, die griechische Bürger von ihren Bankkonten holen, kontinuierlich zu ersetzen. Die griechische Tageszeitung ?Kathimerini? berichtete, im März hätten griechische Bürger bisher drei Milliarden Euro von ihren Konten abgehoben. Im Dezember 2014 seien es vier Milliarden Euro, im Januar 12,2 und im Februar 7,6 Milliarden Euro gewesen. Die Target-Kredite waren nach Berechnung des Ifo-Instituts im Januar und Februar um rund 40 Milliarden Euro auf 91 Milliarden Euro angestiegen. [Das bleibt dann an D. hängen....]

Die Bankenaufsicht befürchtet vor allem, dass gerade die ELA-Kredite direkt zum Kauf von insolventen (in diesem Fall von kurzlaufenden) Staatspapieren benutzt werden. Dies wäre ein Verstoß gegen EU-Recht.

Die Konflikte zwischen Bankenaufsicht und EZB-Rat laufen nun dahingehend, dass die Bankenaufsicht den Notenbankern vorwerfen könnte, sie verstünden nichts vom Bankenaufsichtsgeschäft.

Die EZB sei besorgt über monetäre Finanzierung, und (in ihrer Doppelfunktion) als Aufseher gefalle ihr das Volumen des Engagements bei Staatspapieren nicht, sagt laut Bloomberg Dimitris Drakopoulos, Ökonom bei Nomura International in London. ...

Mit etwa 6000 aufsichtsrechtlichen Entscheidungen, die die Bankenaufsicht jährlich treffen wird und die vom EZB-Rat zu genehmigen sind, ist das Potenzial für Konflikte oder Fehler allerdings erheblich.  

39906 Postings, 3981 Tage Anti LemmingDallas Fed Collapses At Fastest Pace Since Lehman

 
  
    #115615
30.03.15 19:14
www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-30/...est-pace-lehman-lowest-june-2011

Dallas Fed's Richard Fisher had his credibility (whatever is left) crushed for the 4th month in a row. After explaining carefully to no lessor status quo glad hand than Steve Liesman that the Texas economy will see a net positive from low oil prices, Dallas Fed data has utterly collapsed - at its fastest pace since Lehman. Printing a stunning -17.5 (over twice as bad as expected -8.5), this is the 4th miss in a row (and increasingly worse misses). The Dallas Fed was last lower than this in Jun 2011. Across the board, the components were an utter disaster... employees contracted, prices paid and recieved tumbled, production plunged, and new orders collapsed. More worryingly, furture capex tumbled once again.
 
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39906 Postings, 3981 Tage Anti Lemming"Sie zerstören das Vertrauen der Leute in Geld"

 
  
    #115616
30.03.15 19:28
James Howard Kunstler mal wieder erfrischend zynisch und trotzdem (gerade deshalb?) auf den Punkt...

http://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/the-way-out/

THE WAY OUT

It?s not what most people think: a return to some hypothetical ?normality,? with the ghost of Ronnie Reagan beaming down like a sun-god under his lopsided pompadour, and all the happy self-driving GM cars toodling back and forth from WalMart-to-home loaded to the scuppers with new electric pop-tart warmers and 3-D underwear printers (LOL, A.L.). (Or drone deliveries of same from Amazon.com.)

I mean, surely the thinking folk out there must be asking themselves: what is the way out of this Federal Reserve three-card-monte, one-percenter-stuffing, so-called ?economy,? and what is the destination of this society when that mendacious model for living fails?

I digress for a moment: there was a chap named Richard Duncan on the pod-waves this weekend (FSN Network) putting out the charming idea that quantitative easing (QE ? governments ?printing? money to buy their own bonds) had the effect of ?cancelling debt? and that it could continue for decades to come. I don?t doubt that there are Federal Reserve officers who believe this. The part they leave out ? and Mr. Duncan also left it out until pressed ? is that there are consequences. Consult the operating manual of the universe, and you will find that there really is no free lunch or get-out-of-jail card.

The truth is, when you rig a money system with price interventions, distortions, and perversions, they will eventually express themselves in ways destructive to the system. In the present case of world-wide QE and central bank monkey business, these rackets are expressing themselves, finally, in wobbling currencies. In many nations, people are deeply unsure of what their money is worth, and how much it might be worth a month from now. This includes the USA, except for the moment our money is said to be magically appreciating in value compared to everyone else?s. Aren?t we special?

Get this: nothing is more hazardous than undermining people?s trust in their money. All of this financial perfidy conceals the basic fact that the human race has reached the limits of techno-industrialism. There are too many people and not enough basic resources to grow more of them ? oil, fishes, soil, ores, fertilizers ? and there is no steady-state ?solution? to keep that economy going. In other words, it must either grow or contract, and it can?t really grow anymore (despite the exertions of government statisticians), so the authorities are trying to provide a monetary illusion of growth, when instead we?re in contraction.
.
Yes, contraction. The way out is to get with the program, shed the dead-weight and go where reality wants to take you. In the USA that means do everything possible to quit supporting giant failing systems ? Big Box shopping, mass motoring, GMO agribiz, TBTF banks ? and get behind local Main Street integrated economies, walkable towns, regular railroads, smaller and more numerous farms, local medical clinic health care, artistry in public works, and community caretaking of the unfit. All this surely implies a reduced role for the national government, and maybe the states, too. You could call it a lower standard of living, or just a different way to live.

I don?t think we?ll go there via rational political discourse. The current instabilities around the world are so sinister that they are liable to lead to even more strenuous efforts at the top to pretend that everything?s working, and even war is one way to pretend you?re okay (and the ?other guy? isn?t). Of course, war has already broken out, in the MidEast and Ukraine, and it has everything to do with the sequential failure of nations, in one way or another, to overcome the limits of techno-industrialism. America will be dragged kicking and screaming to the realization of what it needs to do. The 2016 election will be the convulsion point.
 

39906 Postings, 3981 Tage Anti LemmingSocGen Asks The $4.5 Trillion Question

 
  
    #115617
1
30.03.15 19:45
Sie lautet: Was passiert eigentlich, wenn die Fed ihre Bilanz wieder schrumpft (gestrichelte blaue Linie unten).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-30/...asks-45-trillion-question

Call it the $4.5 trillion (the size of the Fed's balance sheet) question: in a report released overnight, titled "Reducing Risk in an Expensive World", SocGen strategists ask what is perhaps the most important question right now: "Will the Fed allow Irrational Exuberance, Season 2?" and point out that based on CAPE valuations, the US equity market now has two choices: it will either proceed to another round of irrational exuberance, or it will correct sharpy and dramatically.

Then again, perhaps this question should have been asked back in March 2009 when instead of doing the right thing and letting bloated, overindebted companies fail, the Fed decided to fix a record debt problem with even more debt, in the hopes of ultimately spurring just enough inflation to wipe away this massive debt overhang, in the process making equity holders richer than they have ever been, and leading such "establishment" thinkers as Guggenheim's Scott Minerd to declare "The long-term consequences of global QE are likely to permanently impair living standards for generations to come while creating a false illusion of reviving prosperity." (Siehe Artikel in # 593).

SocGen then tries to answer its own question by pointing out that the future of the market, driven entirely by trillions in excess liquidity, does not look very hot when extrapolating the S&P based on the size of the Fed's balance sheet....

zu Deutsch: WENN die Fed ihre Bilanz schrumpft (blaue gestrichelte Linie), sollte auch der zuvor mit der Bilanzausweitung gestiegene ("gepumpte") SP-500 wieder entsprechend fallen.

Dieses "WENN" ist freilich mit zig Fragezeichen versehen. Ich glaube allerdings nicht, dass Japan- und EZB-QE das Loch füllen können, dass in USA durch das Aussetzen von QE gerissen worden ist (siehe die sich seit Monaten verschlechternden US-Makrodaten).

 
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39906 Postings, 3981 Tage Anti LemmingIrrationale Entkopplung

 
  
    #115618
1
30.03.15 20:07
 
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6975 Postings, 767 Tage NikeJoeIrgendwie sind das extrem schwere Zeiten

 
  
    #115619
1
30.03.15 20:35
für die Bären an den Börsen.

Also das erinnert mich an die Zeit von 1995 bis 2000, als immer wieder vor der Börsenblase gewarnt wurde. Natürlich war es eine gigantische Blase, die schließlich auch platzte, weil sei platzen musste. Aber 90% der Zweifler gingen damals davor noch All-In als ihre Zweifel schließlich nach Jahren vom Markt hinweggefegt waren...

Die ZB werden noch über Jahre die Zinsen nahe bei null halten.
Hier sieht man wie die Geldmenge besonders im EUR nach oben schießt.
http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/...zone-true-money-supply-tms/
Aber auch im USD gibt es sichtlich noch keine Verknappung.
http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/u-s-true-money-supply-tms/

Nur in Japan, da ist monetär alles noch ziemlich tight.
http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/japan-true-money-supply-tms/


Bei null Zinsen und sichtlich anhaltender Ausweitung der Geldmengen, sind die Aktien einfach die letzte Möglichkeit einer positiven Rendite.
Und auch Unternehmen profitieren von der anhaltenden Auflösung der Ersparnisse weltweit.




 

6174 Postings, 3012 Tage KellermeisterWir haben doch Zinseszins als Übeltäter ausgemacht

 
  
    #115620
30.03.15 21:23
also gibt`s jetzt Deflation... deutet sich auch schon an... demnach: Game over... Keine Munition mehr...!!!  

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